Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 25–30 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 22.3% | 24.5% | 22.8–26.3% | 22.3–26.8% | 21.9–27.3% | 21.1–28.2% |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 19.5% | 24.5% | 22.8–26.3% | 22.3–26.8% | 21.9–27.3% | 21.1–28.2% |
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 22.3% | 21.4% | 19.8–23.1% | 19.4–23.6% | 19.0–24.1% | 18.2–24.9% |
| Independents (*) | 19.8% | 8.8% | 7.7–10.1% | 7.5–10.4% | 7.2–10.7% | 6.7–11.4% |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.2–9.4% |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.2% |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 3 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 4 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Independents (*) | 3 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 6% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 35% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 50% | 65% | Median |
| 5 | 12% | 15% | |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Fine Gael (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 67% | 98.8% | Median |
| 4 | 31% | 32% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15% | 100% | |
| 1 | 85% | 85% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Social Democrats (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 88% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 1 | 4 | 0% | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 4 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 6% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Fine Gael (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 67% | 98.8% | Median |
| 4 | 31% | 32% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 88% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Red C
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Business Post
- Fieldwork period: 25–30 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.71%