Opinion Poll by ICS/ISCTE, 22 January–5 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 33.0% 30.9–35.2% 30.3–35.8% 29.8–36.3% 28.8–37.4%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 28.0% 26.0–30.1% 25.5–30.7% 25.0–31.2% 24.1–32.3%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 8.0% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.8% 6.3–10.1% 5.8–10.8%
Chega 1.3% 6.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.6% 4.6–7.9% 4.1–8.5%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.9–5.6% 2.5–6.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.8–4.9%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.7%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 97 85–103 85–104 85–105 80–109
Partido Social Democrata 79 81 71–90 71–90 70–92 68–95
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 16–21 14–21 12–23 12–24
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 16 14–20 12–21 11–21 10–23
Chega 1 11 7–11 7–12 6–13 4–14
CDS–Partido Popular 5 4 3–5 2–6 2–8 1–9
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–4 2–4 2–6 1–6
Iniciativa Liberal 1 2 1–3 1–3 1–4 1–4
LIVRE 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.2% 100%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.1% 99.5%  
81 0.4% 99.4%  
82 0.5% 99.0%  
83 0.6% 98.5%  
84 0.3% 98%  
85 14% 98%  
86 0.7% 84%  
87 1.3% 83%  
88 0.7% 82%  
89 1.4% 81%  
90 1.4% 80%  
91 5% 78%  
92 0.5% 74%  
93 3% 73%  
94 2% 71%  
95 9% 69%  
96 4% 59%  
97 9% 55% Median
98 17% 46%  
99 6% 30%  
100 5% 24%  
101 0.6% 20%  
102 1.4% 19%  
103 12% 18%  
104 1.3% 5%  
105 2% 4%  
106 0.5% 2%  
107 0.8% 2%  
108 0.1% 0.9% Last Result
109 0.6% 0.8%  
110 0.2% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.8% 99.7%  
69 0.8% 98.8%  
70 2% 98%  
71 13% 96%  
72 2% 83%  
73 0.7% 81%  
74 1.2% 80%  
75 2% 79%  
76 7% 77%  
77 1.1% 71%  
78 2% 69%  
79 1.3% 68% Last Result
80 2% 66%  
81 19% 64% Median
82 2% 46%  
83 17% 43%  
84 4% 26%  
85 0.4% 21%  
86 2% 21%  
87 0.6% 19%  
88 1.2% 19%  
89 2% 17%  
90 13% 16%  
91 0.2% 3%  
92 1.0% 3%  
93 0.2% 2%  
94 0.4% 2%  
95 1.0% 1.2%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 0.2% 97%  
14 3% 97%  
15 3% 94%  
16 36% 91%  
17 2% 55%  
18 19% 53% Median
19 8% 34% Last Result
20 14% 25%  
21 6% 11%  
22 2% 5%  
23 2% 3%  
24 1.0% 1.3%  
25 0.1% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.3% 99.8%  
11 3% 99.5%  
12 2% 97% Last Result
13 0.5% 94%  
14 4% 94%  
15 28% 90%  
16 26% 62% Median
17 3% 36%  
18 11% 33%  
19 9% 22%  
20 5% 13%  
21 6% 8%  
22 0.6% 2%  
23 0.9% 1.3%  
24 0.1% 0.4%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.2% 100%  
5 0.3% 98.8%  
6 3% 98%  
7 12% 95%  
8 14% 83%  
9 6% 69%  
10 12% 64%  
11 42% 51% Median
12 6% 9%  
13 1.2% 3%  
14 1.4% 2%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 6% 98%  
3 17% 92%  
4 27% 75% Median
5 42% 48% Last Result
6 2% 6%  
7 2% 4%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.7% 1.0%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 33% 98%  
3 46% 65% Median
4 14% 19% Last Result
5 0.7% 5%  
6 3% 4%  
7 0.2% 0.5%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 37% 99.6% Last Result
2 17% 63% Median
3 42% 45%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100%  
1 51% 52% Last Result, Median
2 1.0% 1.3%  
3 0.3% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 129 99.3% 119–139 119–141 119–141 115–143
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 114 33% 103–123 103–123 103–123 98–127
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 113 30% 101–119 101–121 101–123 97–125
Partido Socialista 108 97 0% 85–103 85–104 85–105 80–109
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 85 0% 76–95 75–95 73–96 70–99

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.2% 99.8%  
115 0.3% 99.6%  
116 0.1% 99.3% Majority
117 0.4% 99.1%  
118 0.6% 98.8%  
119 13% 98%  
120 1.3% 86%  
121 0.4% 84%  
122 0.6% 84%  
123 1.2% 83%  
124 1.2% 82%  
125 3% 81%  
126 4% 78%  
127 2% 74%  
128 9% 72%  
129 17% 63%  
130 12% 45%  
131 1.2% 33% Median
132 1.4% 32%  
133 0.7% 31%  
134 1.0% 30%  
135 4% 29%  
136 7% 25%  
137 0.7% 18%  
138 0.3% 17%  
139 10% 17% Last Result
140 2% 7%  
141 4% 5%  
142 0.2% 1.3%  
143 0.9% 1.1%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.6%  
99 0.4% 99.4%  
100 0.2% 99.0%  
101 0.2% 98.8%  
102 0.8% 98.6%  
103 13% 98%  
104 1.1% 84%  
105 3% 83%  
106 0.3% 80%  
107 2% 80%  
108 0.3% 78%  
109 1.1% 78%  
110 2% 77%  
111 11% 75%  
112 4% 64%  
113 8% 60%  
114 19% 52%  
115 1.1% 34% Median
116 1.2% 33% Majority
117 3% 32%  
118 7% 28%  
119 0.9% 22%  
120 7% 21%  
121 1.0% 14%  
122 0.3% 13%  
123 11% 13%  
124 0.4% 2%  
125 0.3% 2%  
126 0.2% 1.4%  
127 0.9% 1.2% Last Result
128 0.2% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.3% 99.8%  
97 0.2% 99.5%  
98 0.2% 99.3%  
99 0.6% 99.1%  
100 0.6% 98.5%  
101 13% 98%  
102 0.5% 85%  
103 0.5% 84%  
104 0.4% 84%  
105 3% 83%  
106 3% 80%  
107 3% 78%  
108 0.8% 75%  
109 2% 74%  
110 2% 72%  
111 2% 70%  
112 9% 68%  
113 18% 59% Median
114 10% 41%  
115 0.7% 31%  
116 2% 30% Majority
117 6% 28%  
118 2% 22%  
119 11% 20%  
120 0.9% 10% Last Result
121 6% 9%  
122 0.6% 3%  
123 0.5% 3%  
124 0.1% 2%  
125 2% 2%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.2% 100%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.1% 99.5%  
81 0.4% 99.4%  
82 0.5% 99.0%  
83 0.6% 98.5%  
84 0.3% 98%  
85 14% 98%  
86 0.7% 84%  
87 1.3% 83%  
88 0.7% 82%  
89 1.4% 81%  
90 1.4% 80%  
91 5% 78%  
92 0.5% 74%  
93 3% 73%  
94 2% 71%  
95 9% 69%  
96 4% 59%  
97 9% 55% Median
98 17% 46%  
99 6% 30%  
100 5% 24%  
101 0.6% 20%  
102 1.4% 19%  
103 12% 18%  
104 1.3% 5%  
105 2% 4%  
106 0.5% 2%  
107 0.8% 2%  
108 0.1% 0.9% Last Result
109 0.6% 0.8%  
110 0.2% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.6% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.4%  
72 0.2% 99.0%  
73 2% 98.8%  
74 0.5% 97%  
75 5% 97%  
76 9% 92%  
77 2% 83%  
78 2% 81%  
79 6% 79%  
80 0.8% 73%  
81 3% 72%  
82 2% 70%  
83 1.2% 67%  
84 2% 66% Last Result
85 19% 65% Median
86 10% 46%  
87 2% 36%  
88 11% 34%  
89 1.2% 24%  
90 2% 22%  
91 3% 21%  
92 0.7% 18%  
93 0.4% 17%  
94 0.7% 17%  
95 13% 16%  
96 1.0% 3%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.2%  
99 0.4% 0.7%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations