Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem, 2–6 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.4% 35.5–39.4% 34.9–40.0% 34.4–40.5% 33.5–41.4%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 26.7% 25.0–28.6% 24.5–29.1% 24.1–29.5% 23.2–30.4%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Chega 1.3% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 112 107–119 107–120 106–120 102–124
Partido Social Democrata 79 75 71–80 69–82 67–83 66–86
Bloco de Esquerda 19 19 16–20 16–23 15–23 14–24
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 15 10–16 10–16 8–17 7–18
CDS–Partido Popular 5 4 2–4 1–5 1–5 1–5
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 4 3–4 2–5 2–5 2–6
Chega 1 2 1–3 1–4 1–4 1–4
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 1 0–1 0–3 0–3
LIVRE 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.1% 99.7%  
101 0.1% 99.6%  
102 0.7% 99.5%  
103 0.3% 98.8%  
104 0.7% 98%  
105 0.2% 98%  
106 2% 98%  
107 10% 95%  
108 6% 85% Last Result
109 6% 79%  
110 5% 73%  
111 1.0% 69%  
112 33% 68% Median
113 2% 35%  
114 1.2% 32%  
115 4% 31%  
116 0.7% 27% Majority
117 4% 26%  
118 11% 22%  
119 1.2% 11%  
120 8% 10%  
121 0.1% 1.3%  
122 0.3% 1.2%  
123 0.1% 0.9%  
124 0.8% 0.9%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.3% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.6%  
65 0.1% 99.6%  
66 0.8% 99.5%  
67 1.3% 98.8%  
68 0.4% 97%  
69 4% 97%  
70 3% 93%  
71 11% 90%  
72 1.0% 79%  
73 8% 78%  
74 4% 71%  
75 35% 67% Median
76 0.7% 32%  
77 2% 31%  
78 13% 30%  
79 6% 16% Last Result
80 1.4% 10%  
81 3% 9%  
82 2% 6%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.2% 2%  
85 1.5% 2%  
86 0.2% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.4%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 0.2% 99.7%  
15 3% 99.5%  
16 38% 97%  
17 4% 59%  
18 3% 55%  
19 32% 52% Last Result, Median
20 15% 21%  
21 0.3% 6%  
22 0.4% 6%  
23 4% 5%  
24 1.2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100%  
8 2% 99.3%  
9 0.2% 97%  
10 15% 97%  
11 4% 82%  
12 8% 78% Last Result
13 0.4% 70%  
14 15% 69%  
15 10% 55% Median
16 41% 45%  
17 2% 3%  
18 1.1% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100%  
2 34% 93%  
3 5% 58%  
4 46% 53% Median
5 7% 8% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.3%  
7 0% 0.2%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 9% 99.9%  
3 22% 91%  
4 63% 69% Last Result, Median
5 3% 6%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 15% 100% Last Result
2 48% 85% Median
3 28% 37%  
4 9% 9%  
5 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 88% 92% Last Result, Median
2 0.3% 4%  
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Median
1 15% 15% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 144 100% 141–150 138–151 136–152 133–156
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 128 99.9% 127–138 125–139 123–139 121–141
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 128 99.1% 121–132 118–134 118–134 114–140
Partido Socialista 108 112 27% 107–119 107–120 106–120 102–124
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 79 0% 73–83 71–85 71–87 68–90

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0.2% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.7%  
132 0.1% 99.7%  
133 1.3% 99.6%  
134 0.4% 98%  
135 0.3% 98%  
136 0.3% 98%  
137 2% 97%  
138 0.4% 95%  
139 3% 95% Last Result
140 2% 92%  
141 5% 90%  
142 10% 85%  
143 9% 75%  
144 35% 67%  
145 0.5% 32%  
146 4% 31% Median
147 0.8% 27%  
148 2% 26%  
149 13% 25%  
150 5% 12%  
151 4% 7%  
152 0.3% 3%  
153 0.3% 2%  
154 1.0% 2%  
155 0.4% 1.2%  
156 0.7% 0.8%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9% Majority
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.7%  
120 0.1% 99.7%  
121 0.8% 99.5%  
122 0.3% 98.7%  
123 1.3% 98%  
124 0.8% 97%  
125 3% 96%  
126 2% 94%  
127 14% 92% Last Result
128 35% 77%  
129 6% 42%  
130 0.4% 37%  
131 0.8% 36% Median
132 4% 35%  
133 0.5% 32%  
134 4% 31%  
135 0.6% 27%  
136 7% 26%  
137 8% 20%  
138 3% 12%  
139 7% 9%  
140 0.7% 2%  
141 0.4% 0.9%  
142 0.2% 0.5%  
143 0.1% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.5% 99.7%  
115 0.2% 99.3%  
116 0.2% 99.1% Majority
117 0.1% 98.9%  
118 4% 98.7%  
119 2% 95%  
120 1.1% 93% Last Result
121 5% 92%  
122 10% 87%  
123 0.8% 77%  
124 4% 76%  
125 6% 72%  
126 4% 66%  
127 5% 62% Median
128 33% 57%  
129 1.1% 24%  
130 11% 23%  
131 1.4% 12%  
132 5% 10%  
133 0.1% 6%  
134 4% 5%  
135 0.1% 1.3%  
136 0.4% 1.2%  
137 0.1% 0.8%  
138 0% 0.7%  
139 0% 0.7%  
140 0.7% 0.7%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.1% 99.7%  
101 0.1% 99.6%  
102 0.7% 99.5%  
103 0.3% 98.8%  
104 0.7% 98%  
105 0.2% 98%  
106 2% 98%  
107 10% 95%  
108 6% 85% Last Result
109 6% 79%  
110 5% 73%  
111 1.0% 69%  
112 33% 68% Median
113 2% 35%  
114 1.2% 32%  
115 4% 31%  
116 0.7% 27% Majority
117 4% 26%  
118 11% 22%  
119 1.2% 11%  
120 8% 10%  
121 0.1% 1.3%  
122 0.3% 1.2%  
123 0.1% 0.9%  
124 0.8% 0.9%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.4% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.6%  
69 0.1% 99.4%  
70 0.7% 99.3%  
71 5% 98.6%  
72 2% 93%  
73 2% 92%  
74 6% 89%  
75 13% 84%  
76 1.4% 71%  
77 0.2% 70%  
78 1.1% 70%  
79 35% 68% Median
80 20% 33%  
81 1.1% 13%  
82 2% 12%  
83 1.3% 10%  
84 3% 9% Last Result
85 3% 6%  
86 0.2% 3%  
87 0.3% 3%  
88 0.2% 2%  
89 1.4% 2%  
90 0.2% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.4%  
92 0% 0.3%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations