Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 11–17 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 31.1% 28.8–33.6% 28.1–34.3% 27.6–34.9% 26.5–36.1%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 23.8% 21.7–26.1% 21.1–26.7% 20.6–27.3% 19.6–28.4%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 13.2% 11.6–15.1% 11.1–15.6% 10.7–16.1% 10.0–17.1%
Chega 1.3% 6.8% 5.7–8.3% 5.4–8.7% 5.1–9.1% 4.6–9.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 6.4% 5.2–7.8% 4.9–8.2% 4.7–8.6% 4.2–9.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 5.4% 4.4–6.7% 4.1–7.1% 3.9–7.5% 3.4–8.2%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 3.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.9% 2.2–5.2% 1.9–5.8%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.9% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3% 1.9–4.6% 1.6–5.2%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 94 78–98 78–104 77–105 74–107
Partido Social Democrata 79 67 59–82 58–82 58–82 52–84
Bloco de Esquerda 19 33 23–35 23–37 23–38 21–43
Chega 1 11 9–14 8–14 8–17 4–22
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 11 8–15 7–16 7–18 6–20
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 8 5–11 4–12 4–13 3–15
CDS–Partido Popular 5 3 1–5 1–7 1–7 1–9
Iniciativa Liberal 1 4 3–5 2–6 1–6 1–6
LIVRE 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.6%  
75 0.3% 99.3%  
76 0.7% 98.9%  
77 0.8% 98%  
78 9% 97%  
79 2% 89%  
80 0.6% 87%  
81 0.3% 86%  
82 0.3% 86%  
83 2% 86%  
84 0.2% 83%  
85 0.4% 83%  
86 2% 83%  
87 6% 81%  
88 2% 75%  
89 3% 73%  
90 2% 71%  
91 4% 68%  
92 7% 64%  
93 4% 58%  
94 11% 53% Median
95 3% 42%  
96 22% 39%  
97 3% 17%  
98 4% 14%  
99 0.6% 10%  
100 0.4% 9%  
101 0.6% 9%  
102 1.2% 8%  
103 0.8% 7%  
104 3% 7%  
105 2% 3%  
106 0.1% 0.7%  
107 0.1% 0.6%  
108 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.3%  
54 0.2% 99.1%  
55 0.5% 98.8%  
56 0.1% 98%  
57 0.6% 98%  
58 6% 98%  
59 1.2% 91%  
60 0.8% 90%  
61 0.9% 89%  
62 2% 88%  
63 1.3% 87%  
64 3% 85%  
65 6% 82%  
66 15% 76%  
67 14% 62% Median
68 8% 48%  
69 5% 40%  
70 1.1% 35%  
71 8% 34%  
72 3% 26%  
73 0.7% 23%  
74 4% 23%  
75 5% 18%  
76 0.5% 13%  
77 1.4% 13%  
78 0.3% 11%  
79 0.3% 11% Last Result
80 0.2% 11%  
81 0.3% 11%  
82 9% 10%  
83 0.2% 0.9%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.4% 99.7%  
22 0.8% 99.4%  
23 9% 98.5%  
24 5% 90%  
25 4% 85%  
26 2% 81%  
27 9% 79%  
28 4% 70%  
29 4% 66%  
30 2% 62%  
31 3% 60%  
32 6% 57%  
33 21% 51% Median
34 15% 31%  
35 6% 16%  
36 3% 10%  
37 4% 7%  
38 1.2% 3%  
39 0.2% 2%  
40 0.3% 1.4%  
41 0.3% 1.1%  
42 0.1% 0.7%  
43 0.1% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.4%  
46 0% 0.3%  
47 0.3% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 0.1% 98%  
6 0.2% 98%  
7 0.4% 98%  
8 7% 98%  
9 6% 91%  
10 6% 84%  
11 45% 79% Median
12 4% 34%  
13 13% 30%  
14 14% 18%  
15 0.5% 4%  
16 0.4% 3%  
17 0.9% 3%  
18 0.2% 2%  
19 0.1% 2%  
20 0.4% 1.5%  
21 0.4% 1.1%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 1.2% 99.7%  
7 6% 98.5%  
8 16% 93%  
9 4% 77%  
10 19% 73%  
11 5% 54% Median
12 4% 49% Last Result
13 19% 45%  
14 13% 26%  
15 3% 13%  
16 5% 9%  
17 1.1% 4%  
18 0.8% 3%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.5%  
22 0% 0.4%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.6% 100%  
4 4% 99.4% Last Result
5 9% 95%  
6 25% 86%  
7 9% 62%  
8 13% 52% Median
9 10% 39%  
10 6% 29%  
11 15% 24%  
12 6% 9%  
13 1.1% 3%  
14 0.9% 2%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 13% 99.6%  
2 26% 86%  
3 22% 61% Median
4 5% 39%  
5 24% 33% Last Result
6 0.5% 10%  
7 7% 9%  
8 1.4% 2%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 6% 97%  
3 15% 91%  
4 58% 76% Median
5 11% 17%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Median
1 41% 45% Last Result
2 4% 4%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 134 99.8% 122–142 122–144 119–147 118–152
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 122 85% 112–130 111–133 110–138 104–139
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 104 5% 89–112 88–115 87–116 86–120
Partido Socialista 108 94 0% 78–98 78–104 77–105 74–107
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 71 0% 63–85 60–85 60–85 56–89

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.8% Majority
117 0.1% 99.6%  
118 0.1% 99.5%  
119 2% 99.4%  
120 0.3% 97%  
121 0.5% 97%  
122 7% 96%  
123 0.6% 89%  
124 0.7% 89%  
125 1.1% 88%  
126 0.6% 87%  
127 2% 86%  
128 0.7% 84%  
129 7% 84%  
130 4% 76%  
131 0.9% 72%  
132 6% 71%  
133 5% 65%  
134 13% 60%  
135 3% 48%  
136 2% 45%  
137 18% 43%  
138 2% 25% Median
139 2% 23% Last Result
140 4% 21%  
141 3% 17%  
142 7% 14%  
143 0.9% 7%  
144 1.5% 6%  
145 0.6% 5%  
146 0.5% 4%  
147 2% 4%  
148 0.6% 1.3%  
149 0.1% 0.8%  
150 0.1% 0.7%  
151 0% 0.6%  
152 0.1% 0.6%  
153 0.4% 0.4%  
154 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0% 99.5%  
105 0.2% 99.5%  
106 0.1% 99.3%  
107 0.3% 99.1%  
108 0.3% 98.8%  
109 0.5% 98%  
110 2% 98%  
111 0.6% 96%  
112 8% 95%  
113 0.7% 86%  
114 0.6% 86%  
115 0.6% 85%  
116 0.5% 85% Majority
117 2% 84%  
118 0.8% 82%  
119 10% 81%  
120 8% 72%  
121 11% 64%  
122 6% 53%  
123 8% 48%  
124 0.9% 40%  
125 4% 39%  
126 5% 35%  
127 1.1% 30% Last Result, Median
128 3% 29%  
129 15% 26%  
130 2% 11%  
131 1.4% 8%  
132 1.4% 7%  
133 1.0% 6%  
134 0.8% 5%  
135 0.8% 4%  
136 0% 3%  
137 0.4% 3%  
138 0.1% 3%  
139 2% 2%  
140 0% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0.1% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.6%  
86 0.3% 99.5%  
87 2% 99.2%  
88 7% 97%  
89 0.5% 90%  
90 0.9% 90%  
91 0.5% 89%  
92 0.4% 88%  
93 2% 88%  
94 2% 86%  
95 0.5% 83%  
96 0.9% 83%  
97 0.1% 82%  
98 0.5% 82%  
99 0.8% 81%  
100 6% 81%  
101 11% 75%  
102 1.0% 64%  
103 2% 63%  
104 15% 60%  
105 2% 46% Median
106 5% 43%  
107 8% 38%  
108 5% 30%  
109 9% 25%  
110 0.8% 16%  
111 1.3% 15%  
112 7% 14%  
113 0.6% 7%  
114 0.7% 6%  
115 0.7% 6%  
116 3% 5% Majority
117 0.3% 2%  
118 0.1% 1.3%  
119 0.4% 1.2%  
120 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.6%  
75 0.3% 99.3%  
76 0.7% 98.9%  
77 0.8% 98%  
78 9% 97%  
79 2% 89%  
80 0.6% 87%  
81 0.3% 86%  
82 0.3% 86%  
83 2% 86%  
84 0.2% 83%  
85 0.4% 83%  
86 2% 83%  
87 6% 81%  
88 2% 75%  
89 3% 73%  
90 2% 71%  
91 4% 68%  
92 7% 64%  
93 4% 58%  
94 11% 53% Median
95 3% 42%  
96 22% 39%  
97 3% 17%  
98 4% 14%  
99 0.6% 10%  
100 0.4% 9%  
101 0.6% 9%  
102 1.2% 8%  
103 0.8% 7%  
104 3% 7%  
105 2% 3%  
106 0.1% 0.7%  
107 0.1% 0.6%  
108 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.8%  
57 0.8% 99.4%  
58 0.4% 98.6%  
59 0.6% 98%  
60 4% 98%  
61 0.4% 93%  
62 2% 93%  
63 1.0% 91%  
64 0.9% 90%  
65 1.0% 89%  
66 4% 88%  
67 3% 84%  
68 4% 82%  
69 4% 78%  
70 11% 74% Median
71 16% 63%  
72 4% 48%  
73 5% 44%  
74 13% 39%  
75 6% 26%  
76 3% 20%  
77 2% 17%  
78 0.3% 15%  
79 1.4% 14%  
80 0.5% 13%  
81 0.7% 12%  
82 0.5% 12%  
83 0.1% 11%  
84 0.8% 11% Last Result
85 9% 10%  
86 0.3% 1.2%  
87 0.4% 0.9%  
88 0.1% 0.6%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations