Opinion Poll by Aximage, 14–18 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 35.0% 33.0–37.2% 32.4–37.8% 31.9–38.3% 30.9–39.4%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 26.1% 24.2–28.1% 23.7–28.7% 23.2–29.2% 22.4–30.2%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 7.7% 6.7–9.1% 6.4–9.4% 6.1–9.8% 5.6–10.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.4% 4.5–6.5% 4.2–6.8% 4.0–7.1% 3.6–7.7%
Chega 1.3% 4.3% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.6% 3.1–5.9% 2.8–6.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 4.1% 3.3–5.1% 3.1–5.4% 2.9–5.6% 2.6–6.1%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.5% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.6–3.8% 1.4–4.3%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.1% 1.6–2.9% 1.5–3.2% 1.4–3.4% 1.1–3.8%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.6% 0.2–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 106 101–115 100–117 98–118 95–120
Partido Social Democrata 79 78 73–84 70–86 69–88 65–94
Bloco de Esquerda 19 17 14–19 12–19 11–20 10–21
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 7–14 7–14 6–16 5–17
Chega 1 6 4–8 3–8 3–9 2–11
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 5 4–9 4–9 4–10 2–11
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 3–4 3–5 2–5 1–6
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 1–3 0–4 0–4 0–5
LIVRE 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.2% 100%  
91 0% 99.8%  
92 0% 99.8%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.1% 99.7%  
95 0.4% 99.6%  
96 0.5% 99.2%  
97 0.5% 98.6%  
98 1.1% 98%  
99 0.2% 97%  
100 5% 97%  
101 3% 92%  
102 5% 89%  
103 3% 84%  
104 18% 80%  
105 12% 63%  
106 5% 51% Median
107 24% 46%  
108 0.8% 22% Last Result
109 0.7% 22%  
110 2% 21%  
111 1.3% 19%  
112 2% 18%  
113 2% 15%  
114 0.4% 14%  
115 4% 13%  
116 3% 10% Majority
117 4% 6%  
118 0.7% 3%  
119 0.1% 2%  
120 1.2% 2%  
121 0.1% 0.5%  
122 0.1% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.3%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.8%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.1% 99.6%  
66 0.5% 99.5%  
67 0.2% 99.0%  
68 0.7% 98.7%  
69 2% 98%  
70 0.7% 96%  
71 1.3% 95%  
72 3% 94%  
73 0.7% 91%  
74 3% 90%  
75 6% 87%  
76 1.5% 81%  
77 4% 79%  
78 30% 75% Median
79 1.1% 45% Last Result
80 1.4% 44%  
81 5% 43%  
82 26% 38%  
83 1.0% 12%  
84 2% 11%  
85 0.7% 10%  
86 5% 9%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0% 3%  
89 0.5% 2%  
90 1.0% 2%  
91 0.2% 1.0%  
92 0.1% 0.8%  
93 0.1% 0.7%  
94 0.3% 0.7%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0.1% 99.8%  
10 0.3% 99.7%  
11 3% 99.4%  
12 3% 96%  
13 0.2% 94%  
14 24% 94%  
15 9% 69%  
16 7% 61%  
17 9% 54% Median
18 5% 45%  
19 35% 40% Last Result
20 4% 5%  
21 1.0% 1.4%  
22 0.1% 0.4%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.2% 100%  
6 3% 98.8%  
7 9% 95%  
8 6% 86%  
9 27% 80%  
10 4% 52% Median
11 1.4% 49%  
12 7% 47% Last Result
13 3% 40%  
14 32% 37%  
15 0.7% 5%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.8% 100%  
3 5% 99.1%  
4 38% 94%  
5 4% 56%  
6 28% 52% Median
7 3% 24%  
8 17% 21%  
9 2% 4%  
10 0.3% 2%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 0.9% 98%  
4 30% 98% Last Result
5 20% 67% Median
6 11% 47%  
7 0.7% 36%  
8 2% 35%  
9 30% 33%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.8% 1.3%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.3% 100% Last Result
2 2% 98.7%  
3 77% 97% Median
4 11% 19%  
5 6% 8%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 71% 95% Median
2 13% 24%  
3 5% 11%  
4 6% 7%  
5 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Median
1 41% 42% Last Result
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 135 99.9% 129–140 125–143 123–145 117–150
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 123 97% 118–132 117–135 113–136 110–140
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 118 80% 112–125 108–128 107–128 102–133
Partido Socialista 108 106 10% 101–115 100–117 98–118 95–120
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 80 0% 75–86 72–90 70–90 67–95

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0.1% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9% Majority
117 0.4% 99.8%  
118 0% 99.4%  
119 0.3% 99.3%  
120 0.2% 99.1%  
121 0.3% 98.9%  
122 0.1% 98.6%  
123 1.3% 98%  
124 1.3% 97%  
125 4% 96%  
126 1.0% 92%  
127 0.3% 91%  
128 0.2% 91%  
129 3% 91%  
130 29% 87%  
131 0.8% 58%  
132 0.4% 57%  
133 1.2% 57% Median
134 1.1% 56%  
135 7% 55%  
136 3% 48%  
137 16% 45%  
138 12% 30%  
139 6% 18% Last Result
140 2% 11%  
141 0.7% 9%  
142 0.7% 8%  
143 3% 7%  
144 0.8% 4%  
145 2% 3%  
146 0.2% 2%  
147 0% 1.4%  
148 0.2% 1.4%  
149 0.6% 1.1%  
150 0.1% 0.6%  
151 0.1% 0.5%  
152 0% 0.3%  
153 0.2% 0.3%  
154 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0.1% 100%  
108 0.2% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.3% 99.5%  
111 0.4% 99.3%  
112 0.4% 98.8%  
113 0.9% 98%  
114 0.2% 97%  
115 0.5% 97%  
116 0.3% 97% Majority
117 5% 96%  
118 4% 91%  
119 3% 87%  
120 1.3% 84%  
121 31% 83%  
122 0.8% 52%  
123 17% 51% Median
124 12% 34%  
125 0.3% 22%  
126 1.4% 21%  
127 6% 20% Last Result
128 0.7% 14%  
129 2% 14%  
130 0.6% 12%  
131 0.9% 11%  
132 3% 10%  
133 1.1% 7%  
134 0.8% 6%  
135 0.8% 5%  
136 3% 4%  
137 0.1% 2%  
138 0.2% 2%  
139 0.8% 1.3%  
140 0.2% 0.5%  
141 0.2% 0.3%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.2% 99.9%  
102 0.4% 99.7%  
103 0.2% 99.3%  
104 0.3% 99.1%  
105 0.1% 98.8%  
106 0.3% 98.7%  
107 1.0% 98%  
108 5% 97%  
109 0.7% 92%  
110 0.7% 92%  
111 1.1% 91%  
112 0.8% 90%  
113 3% 89%  
114 2% 86%  
115 4% 84%  
116 28% 80% Median, Majority
117 2% 52%  
118 16% 51%  
119 15% 34%  
120 1.3% 19% Last Result
121 2% 18%  
122 0.5% 15%  
123 1.3% 15%  
124 3% 13%  
125 1.0% 11%  
126 2% 10%  
127 1.3% 8%  
128 5% 7%  
129 0.4% 2%  
130 0.6% 1.3%  
131 0.1% 0.7%  
132 0% 0.6%  
133 0.3% 0.6%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.2% 100%  
91 0% 99.8%  
92 0% 99.8%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.1% 99.7%  
95 0.4% 99.6%  
96 0.5% 99.2%  
97 0.5% 98.6%  
98 1.1% 98%  
99 0.2% 97%  
100 5% 97%  
101 3% 92%  
102 5% 89%  
103 3% 84%  
104 18% 80%  
105 12% 63%  
106 5% 51% Median
107 24% 46%  
108 0.8% 22% Last Result
109 0.7% 22%  
110 2% 21%  
111 1.3% 19%  
112 2% 18%  
113 2% 15%  
114 0.4% 14%  
115 4% 13%  
116 3% 10% Majority
117 4% 6%  
118 0.7% 3%  
119 0.1% 2%  
120 1.2% 2%  
121 0.1% 0.5%  
122 0.1% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.3%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.6%  
67 0.5% 99.5%  
68 0.2% 99.0%  
69 0.4% 98.8%  
70 1.3% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 0.5% 95%  
73 1.2% 95%  
74 3% 93%  
75 3% 90%  
76 6% 87%  
77 0.9% 81%  
78 4% 80%  
79 25% 76% Median
80 3% 51%  
81 3% 48%  
82 1.3% 45%  
83 31% 44%  
84 1.0% 13% Last Result
85 1.4% 12%  
86 1.1% 10%  
87 2% 9%  
88 2% 8%  
89 0.6% 6%  
90 4% 6%  
91 0.9% 2%  
92 0.2% 0.9%  
93 0% 0.8%  
94 0.1% 0.7%  
95 0.3% 0.7%  
96 0.3% 0.4%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations