Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 13–19 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 31.4% 29.1–33.9% 28.4–34.6% 27.9–35.2% 26.8–36.4%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 21.9% 19.9–24.2% 19.3–24.8% 18.8–25.4% 17.9–26.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 14.6% 12.9–16.5% 12.4–17.1% 12.0–17.6% 11.2–18.6%
Chega 1.3% 8.7% 7.4–10.3% 7.0–10.8% 6.7–11.2% 6.1–12.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 6.1% 5.0–7.5% 4.7–7.9% 4.4–8.2% 4.0–9.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 5.9% 4.8–7.3% 4.5–7.7% 4.3–8.1% 3.8–8.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 3.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.1% 2.4–5.4% 2.1–6.0%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.3% 1.7–3.3% 1.5–3.6% 1.4–3.8% 1.1–4.3%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 93 80–93 80–97 79–100 75–106
Partido Social Democrata 79 62 58–69 56–73 55–73 51–76
Bloco de Esquerda 19 34 29–36 28–40 28–40 24–44
Chega 1 17 14–23 14–24 12–26 11–27
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 13 7–15 6–15 6–15 6–18
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 8 6–11 6–13 5–14 4–15
CDS–Partido Popular 5 2 2–4 2–5 1–5 1–7
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 1–3 1–4 1–5 1–5
LIVRE 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.8%  
76 0.3% 99.4%  
77 1.1% 99.2%  
78 0.2% 98%  
79 1.4% 98%  
80 7% 96%  
81 4% 89%  
82 0.1% 85%  
83 0.1% 85%  
84 2% 85%  
85 6% 83%  
86 1.4% 77%  
87 3% 75%  
88 2% 72%  
89 11% 70%  
90 0.4% 59%  
91 2% 59%  
92 0.9% 57%  
93 48% 56% Median
94 0.4% 9%  
95 2% 8%  
96 0.9% 6%  
97 1.0% 5%  
98 1.3% 5%  
99 0.4% 3%  
100 1.2% 3%  
101 0.3% 2%  
102 0.2% 1.4%  
103 0.2% 1.2%  
104 0.2% 1.0%  
105 0.4% 0.9%  
106 0.1% 0.5%  
107 0% 0.4%  
108 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0% 99.8%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0% 99.7%  
50 0.1% 99.7%  
51 0.3% 99.5%  
52 0.3% 99.3%  
53 0.3% 98.9%  
54 0.4% 98.6%  
55 3% 98%  
56 2% 96%  
57 1.4% 93%  
58 3% 92%  
59 0.9% 89%  
60 0.2% 88%  
61 2% 88%  
62 49% 86% Median
63 5% 37%  
64 0.3% 32%  
65 7% 31%  
66 0.7% 24%  
67 6% 24%  
68 0.5% 18%  
69 9% 18%  
70 0.4% 9%  
71 0.9% 8%  
72 0.3% 7%  
73 6% 7%  
74 0.4% 1.4%  
75 0% 1.0%  
76 0.7% 0.9%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.2% Last Result
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.5%  
25 0.1% 99.5%  
26 0.9% 99.3%  
27 0.9% 98%  
28 5% 98%  
29 3% 92%  
30 2% 90%  
31 3% 87%  
32 0.9% 84%  
33 6% 83%  
34 55% 77% Median
35 10% 22%  
36 4% 12%  
37 0.9% 9%  
38 2% 8%  
39 0.1% 6%  
40 4% 6%  
41 0.5% 2%  
42 0.2% 1.2%  
43 0.2% 1.0%  
44 0.4% 0.8%  
45 0.1% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.2% 99.8%  
11 2% 99.6%  
12 0.4% 98%  
13 1.1% 97%  
14 8% 96%  
15 0.3% 88%  
16 0.6% 88%  
17 54% 87% Median
18 6% 34%  
19 2% 28%  
20 3% 26%  
21 5% 23%  
22 1.2% 18%  
23 11% 16%  
24 0.7% 5%  
25 2% 4%  
26 1.1% 3%  
27 1.4% 1.5%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 9% 99.8%  
7 3% 91%  
8 0.8% 88%  
9 12% 87%  
10 5% 75%  
11 0.5% 70%  
12 1.0% 69% Last Result
13 56% 68% Median
14 1.1% 12%  
15 9% 11%  
16 0.7% 2%  
17 0.1% 1.4%  
18 1.0% 1.3%  
19 0.1% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.0% 100% Last Result
5 2% 99.0%  
6 7% 97%  
7 8% 89%  
8 62% 81% Median
9 1.3% 19%  
10 1.5% 18%  
11 11% 17%  
12 0.6% 6%  
13 0.6% 5%  
14 4% 5%  
15 1.0% 1.0%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 3% 99.8%  
2 64% 97% Median
3 18% 34%  
4 6% 16%  
5 8% 10% Last Result
6 0.1% 1.3%  
7 0.7% 1.2%  
8 0.2% 0.4%  
9 0.1% 0.3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 54% 100% Last Result, Median
2 3% 46%  
3 34% 43%  
4 6% 9%  
5 2% 3%  
6 0.3% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 3% 3% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 140 99.9% 126–140 122–141 122–146 119–149
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 127 90% 115–127 113–131 113–133 107–139
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 106 0.4% 90–106 89–109 89–111 86–115
Partido Socialista 108 93 0% 80–93 80–97 79–100 75–106
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 64 0% 61–72 59–76 57–76 54–78

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9% Majority
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.3% 99.9%  
119 0.3% 99.6%  
120 0% 99.2%  
121 0.2% 99.2%  
122 6% 99.0%  
123 0% 93%  
124 2% 93%  
125 1.0% 91%  
126 3% 90%  
127 1.3% 87%  
128 2% 86%  
129 8% 84%  
130 4% 76%  
131 1.1% 72%  
132 5% 70%  
133 0.8% 66%  
134 0.4% 65%  
135 6% 64%  
136 1.3% 58%  
137 0.6% 57%  
138 0.3% 56%  
139 2% 56% Last Result
140 48% 54% Median
141 1.4% 6%  
142 1.2% 5%  
143 0.3% 4%  
144 0.1% 3%  
145 0.7% 3%  
146 1.2% 3%  
147 0% 1.3%  
148 0.2% 1.3%  
149 0.6% 1.0%  
150 0.2% 0.4%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0.1% 100%  
105 0.2% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.7%  
107 0.2% 99.6%  
108 0.1% 99.5%  
109 0.2% 99.4%  
110 0.3% 99.2%  
111 0.1% 99.0%  
112 0.4% 98.9%  
113 6% 98%  
114 2% 93%  
115 0.8% 90%  
116 4% 90% Majority
117 5% 86%  
118 1.0% 81%  
119 0.6% 80%  
120 5% 79%  
121 6% 74%  
122 1.3% 68%  
123 9% 67%  
124 1.0% 58%  
125 0.3% 57%  
126 1.3% 56%  
127 48% 55% Last Result, Median
128 0.6% 7%  
129 1.0% 6%  
130 0.2% 6%  
131 2% 5%  
132 0.5% 3%  
133 0.9% 3%  
134 0.2% 2%  
135 0.2% 2%  
136 0.5% 2%  
137 0.2% 1.1%  
138 0.2% 0.9%  
139 0.4% 0.7%  
140 0.2% 0.4%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8%  
86 0.8% 99.7%  
87 0.4% 98.9%  
88 0.3% 98.5%  
89 7% 98%  
90 4% 91%  
91 1.1% 87%  
92 1.4% 86%  
93 2% 85%  
94 2% 83%  
95 7% 81%  
96 0.2% 75%  
97 3% 74%  
98 1.4% 71%  
99 0.4% 70%  
100 6% 69%  
101 1.5% 64%  
102 0.3% 62%  
103 0.5% 62%  
104 4% 61%  
105 0.7% 57%  
106 48% 56% Median
107 0.6% 8%  
108 2% 8%  
109 0.3% 5%  
110 2% 5%  
111 0.7% 3%  
112 0.4% 2%  
113 0.3% 2%  
114 0.8% 1.4%  
115 0.1% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.4% Majority
117 0.2% 0.3%  
118 0% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1% Last Result
121 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.8%  
76 0.3% 99.4%  
77 1.1% 99.2%  
78 0.2% 98%  
79 1.4% 98%  
80 7% 96%  
81 4% 89%  
82 0.1% 85%  
83 0.1% 85%  
84 2% 85%  
85 6% 83%  
86 1.4% 77%  
87 3% 75%  
88 2% 72%  
89 11% 70%  
90 0.4% 59%  
91 2% 59%  
92 0.9% 57%  
93 48% 56% Median
94 0.4% 9%  
95 2% 8%  
96 0.9% 6%  
97 1.0% 5%  
98 1.3% 5%  
99 0.4% 3%  
100 1.2% 3%  
101 0.3% 2%  
102 0.2% 1.4%  
103 0.2% 1.2%  
104 0.2% 1.0%  
105 0.4% 0.9%  
106 0.1% 0.5%  
107 0% 0.4%  
108 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0% 99.8%  
51 0% 99.8%  
52 0% 99.8%  
53 0.1% 99.7%  
54 0.2% 99.6%  
55 0.2% 99.3%  
56 0.5% 99.2%  
57 2% 98.7%  
58 2% 97%  
59 3% 96%  
60 2% 93%  
61 2% 92%  
62 0.8% 90%  
63 2% 89%  
64 48% 87% Median
65 1.3% 39%  
66 2% 38%  
67 7% 36%  
68 5% 28%  
69 0.5% 23%  
70 0.3% 22%  
71 4% 22%  
72 8% 18%  
73 0.9% 10%  
74 1.4% 9%  
75 0.1% 8%  
76 6% 7%  
77 0.4% 2%  
78 0.9% 1.3%  
79 0.1% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1% Last Result
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations