Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 9–14 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 35.5% 33.1–38.0% 32.4–38.7% 31.8–39.3% 30.7–40.5%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 23.3% 21.2–25.6% 20.6–26.2% 20.1–26.8% 19.2–27.9%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 11.9% 10.3–13.7% 9.9–14.2% 9.6–14.7% 8.9–15.6%
Chega 1.3% 7.9% 6.6–9.4% 6.3–9.9% 6.0–10.3% 5.5–11.1%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.8% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.6% 4.2–7.9% 3.7–8.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 5.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.7–6.7% 3.5–7.0% 3.1–7.7%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 3.9% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.4% 2.6–5.7% 2.3–6.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.4% 1.8–3.4% 1.6–3.7% 1.5–3.9% 1.2–4.5%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.6% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.6% 0.2–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 105 99–109 97–112 95–114 89–117
Partido Social Democrata 79 62 57–67 56–70 54–70 53–75
Bloco de Esquerda 19 28 22–32 21–32 20–33 18–37
Chega 1 11 11–15 10–18 9–21 8–25
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 12 7–14 6–14 5–16 4–17
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 6 4–9 4–11 4–11 3–11
CDS–Partido Popular 5 4 2–5 2–5 1–6 1–8
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 1–5 1–5 1–5 1–6
LIVRE 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.1% 99.7%  
88 0.1% 99.6%  
89 0.1% 99.6%  
90 0.1% 99.5%  
91 0.2% 99.4%  
92 0.4% 99.1%  
93 0.2% 98.7%  
94 0.6% 98.5%  
95 1.1% 98%  
96 1.0% 97%  
97 2% 96%  
98 0.5% 94%  
99 5% 94%  
100 3% 89%  
101 2% 86%  
102 6% 84%  
103 22% 78%  
104 1.4% 56%  
105 23% 54% Median
106 4% 32%  
107 13% 27%  
108 2% 14% Last Result
109 3% 12%  
110 1.1% 9%  
111 1.5% 8%  
112 2% 7%  
113 1.4% 5%  
114 2% 3%  
115 0.3% 1.3%  
116 0.5% 1.0% Majority
117 0.3% 0.5%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0% 99.8%  
50 0% 99.7%  
51 0.1% 99.7%  
52 0.1% 99.6%  
53 0.7% 99.5%  
54 2% 98.8%  
55 1.4% 97%  
56 4% 96%  
57 5% 92%  
58 3% 87%  
59 16% 84%  
60 5% 67%  
61 7% 62%  
62 10% 55% Median
63 22% 45%  
64 3% 24%  
65 7% 21%  
66 3% 14%  
67 3% 11%  
68 0.8% 8%  
69 0.9% 7%  
70 4% 6%  
71 0.5% 2%  
72 0.4% 2%  
73 0.1% 1.5%  
74 0.6% 1.4%  
75 0.4% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.1% 99.9%  
18 1.1% 99.8%  
19 0.5% 98.6% Last Result
20 2% 98%  
21 6% 96%  
22 10% 91%  
23 6% 80%  
24 5% 75%  
25 2% 70%  
26 4% 68%  
27 5% 64%  
28 21% 58% Median
29 0.9% 37%  
30 18% 36%  
31 6% 18%  
32 8% 12%  
33 1.4% 4%  
34 0.9% 2%  
35 0.5% 2%  
36 0.5% 1.1%  
37 0.3% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.8% 99.9%  
9 2% 99.1%  
10 2% 97%  
11 54% 95% Median
12 2% 40%  
13 12% 38%  
14 15% 27%  
15 1.2% 11%  
16 4% 10%  
17 0.5% 6%  
18 0.6% 5%  
19 0.3% 5%  
20 2% 4%  
21 0.6% 3%  
22 0.3% 2%  
23 0.1% 2%  
24 0.6% 2%  
25 0.8% 1.0%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.8% 99.8%  
5 3% 98.9%  
6 6% 96%  
7 4% 90%  
8 7% 86%  
9 2% 79%  
10 12% 78%  
11 0.8% 66%  
12 20% 65% Last Result, Median
13 25% 46%  
14 16% 20%  
15 0.4% 4%  
16 2% 4%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 2% 99.6%  
4 32% 98% Last Result
5 5% 66%  
6 37% 60% Median
7 0.6% 24%  
8 7% 23%  
9 8% 16%  
10 2% 8%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.1% 0.5%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 2% 99.9%  
2 21% 97%  
3 19% 76%  
4 9% 57% Median
5 45% 49% Last Result
6 1.1% 3%  
7 0.6% 2%  
8 1.0% 2%  
9 0.3% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 15% 99.8% Last Result
2 21% 84%  
3 47% 64% Median
4 5% 16%  
5 9% 12%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Median
1 19% 19% Last Result
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 145 100% 135–147 133–148 131–149 125–150
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 133 99.3% 126–136 125–137 123–138 113–139
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 116 64% 109–121 106–123 104–127 99–128
Partido Socialista 108 105 1.0% 99–109 97–112 95–114 89–117
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 66 0% 60–69 59–73 58–75 57–80

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.2% 99.7%  
125 0% 99.5%  
126 0.2% 99.5%  
127 0.2% 99.2%  
128 0.2% 99.0%  
129 0.3% 98.8%  
130 1.0% 98.5%  
131 0.7% 98%  
132 0.4% 97%  
133 3% 96%  
134 2% 94%  
135 2% 92%  
136 1.5% 90%  
137 2% 88%  
138 3% 86%  
139 4% 83% Last Result
140 2% 79%  
141 7% 77%  
142 2% 70%  
143 8% 67%  
144 2% 60%  
145 27% 58% Median
146 15% 31%  
147 7% 16%  
148 4% 9%  
149 3% 5%  
150 1.2% 2%  
151 0.1% 0.4%  
152 0.2% 0.3%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.8%  
113 0.2% 99.6%  
114 0.1% 99.4%  
115 0.1% 99.3%  
116 0.2% 99.3% Majority
117 0.1% 99.1%  
118 0.2% 99.0%  
119 0.1% 98.8%  
120 0.1% 98.7%  
121 0.5% 98.5%  
122 0.3% 98%  
123 0.7% 98%  
124 0.9% 97%  
125 4% 96%  
126 2% 92%  
127 8% 89% Last Result
128 2% 82%  
129 11% 80%  
130 4% 69%  
131 1.0% 65%  
132 3% 64%  
133 33% 61% Median
134 8% 28%  
135 8% 20%  
136 4% 12%  
137 5% 8%  
138 1.0% 3%  
139 1.2% 2%  
140 0.2% 0.5%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.2% 99.5%  
100 0.2% 99.4%  
101 0.3% 99.2%  
102 0.3% 98.9%  
103 0.6% 98.6%  
104 1.1% 98%  
105 0.2% 97%  
106 2% 97%  
107 2% 94%  
108 0.6% 92%  
109 3% 92%  
110 2% 89%  
111 0.5% 87%  
112 3% 86%  
113 13% 84%  
114 1.4% 71%  
115 6% 70%  
116 18% 64% Majority
117 20% 46% Median
118 4% 26%  
119 0.3% 22%  
120 6% 22% Last Result
121 9% 16%  
122 2% 7%  
123 2% 6%  
124 0.8% 4%  
125 0.4% 3%  
126 0.2% 3%  
127 0.2% 3%  
128 2% 2%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.1% 99.7%  
88 0.1% 99.6%  
89 0.1% 99.6%  
90 0.1% 99.5%  
91 0.2% 99.4%  
92 0.4% 99.1%  
93 0.2% 98.7%  
94 0.6% 98.5%  
95 1.1% 98%  
96 1.0% 97%  
97 2% 96%  
98 0.5% 94%  
99 5% 94%  
100 3% 89%  
101 2% 86%  
102 6% 84%  
103 22% 78%  
104 1.4% 56%  
105 23% 54% Median
106 4% 32%  
107 13% 27%  
108 2% 14% Last Result
109 3% 12%  
110 1.1% 9%  
111 1.5% 8%  
112 2% 7%  
113 1.4% 5%  
114 2% 3%  
115 0.3% 1.3%  
116 0.5% 1.0% Majority
117 0.3% 0.5%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.8%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.1% 99.7%  
57 2% 99.6%  
58 0.8% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 5% 95%  
61 3% 89%  
62 2% 86%  
63 5% 84%  
64 22% 79%  
65 7% 58%  
66 9% 50% Median
67 4% 41%  
68 25% 37%  
69 2% 12%  
70 2% 10%  
71 1.2% 8%  
72 0.6% 7%  
73 3% 6%  
74 0.3% 3%  
75 1.3% 3%  
76 0.2% 2%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.2% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations