Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 5–9 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 40.3% 37.8–42.9% 37.1–43.6% 36.5–44.2% 35.3–45.5%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 23.2% 21.2–25.5% 20.6–26.2% 20.1–26.7% 19.1–27.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 9.0% 7.7–10.7% 7.3–11.1% 7.0–11.6% 6.4–12.4%
Chega 1.3% 6.8% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.7% 5.0–9.0% 4.6–9.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 6.0% 4.9–7.4% 4.6–7.8% 4.4–8.1% 3.9–8.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 3.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.5–5.0% 2.3–5.3% 2.0–5.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.5–5.0% 2.3–5.3% 2.0–5.9%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 3.2% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–4.9% 1.8–5.5%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.6% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.6% 0.2–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 117 110–126 109–127 108–128 104–134
Partido Social Democrata 79 61 56–69 54–69 54–71 52–76
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 15–24 13–24 13–24 11–25
Chega 1 11 9–13 8–14 7–16 5–17
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 9 6–14 5–14 5–15 5–18
CDS–Partido Popular 5 3 1–5 1–5 1–5 1–8
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 4 2–6 2–6 2–8 2–9
Iniciativa Liberal 1 4 3–6 3–6 2–6 1–8
LIVRE 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.3% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.6%  
104 0.2% 99.5%  
105 0.2% 99.3%  
106 0.6% 99.1%  
107 0.8% 98.5%  
108 2% 98% Last Result
109 2% 96%  
110 4% 93%  
111 3% 90%  
112 10% 86%  
113 1.1% 76%  
114 1.2% 75%  
115 5% 74%  
116 16% 69% Majority
117 5% 53% Median
118 0.8% 48%  
119 1.3% 48%  
120 2% 46%  
121 27% 44%  
122 1.2% 17%  
123 2% 16%  
124 3% 14%  
125 0.4% 11%  
126 0.3% 10%  
127 7% 10%  
128 1.3% 3%  
129 0.1% 2%  
130 0.1% 2%  
131 0.1% 2%  
132 0% 2%  
133 0% 2%  
134 2% 2%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.3% 99.6%  
53 0.4% 99.3%  
54 4% 99.0%  
55 4% 95%  
56 1.5% 91%  
57 2% 89%  
58 0.5% 87%  
59 23% 86%  
60 13% 64%  
61 16% 51% Median
62 0.3% 35%  
63 3% 34%  
64 3% 31%  
65 5% 28%  
66 7% 23%  
67 2% 16%  
68 0.2% 14%  
69 10% 14%  
70 0.6% 4%  
71 1.0% 3%  
72 1.3% 2%  
73 0.2% 1.1%  
74 0.1% 0.9%  
75 0.2% 0.8%  
76 0.3% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 0.1% 99.8%  
11 0.7% 99.7%  
12 0.2% 99.0%  
13 5% 98.8%  
14 4% 94%  
15 7% 90%  
16 8% 84%  
17 22% 75%  
18 17% 53% Median
19 4% 36% Last Result
20 9% 33%  
21 5% 23%  
22 1.1% 19%  
23 1.4% 18%  
24 16% 16%  
25 0.1% 0.6%  
26 0.2% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.4% 100%  
5 0.2% 99.6%  
6 0.6% 99.4%  
7 2% 98.9%  
8 3% 97%  
9 19% 93%  
10 10% 74%  
11 49% 64% Median
12 2% 14%  
13 3% 13%  
14 6% 9%  
15 0.4% 3%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.1% 0.6%  
18 0.3% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 7% 100%  
6 5% 93%  
7 2% 88%  
8 21% 85%  
9 17% 64% Median
10 23% 47%  
11 3% 25%  
12 7% 22% Last Result
13 5% 15%  
14 5% 10%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.5% 1.4%  
17 0.1% 0.9%  
18 0.7% 0.8%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 11% 99.9%  
2 19% 89%  
3 26% 70% Median
4 8% 44%  
5 35% 36% Last Result
6 0.3% 1.5%  
7 0.1% 1.2%  
8 0.7% 1.1%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 10% 99.8%  
3 33% 89%  
4 17% 56% Last Result, Median
5 23% 39%  
6 13% 16%  
7 0.3% 3%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.8% 1.0%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100% Last Result
2 2% 99.3%  
3 17% 97%  
4 57% 80% Median
5 11% 22%  
6 11% 11%  
7 0.1% 0.8%  
8 0.5% 0.7%  
9 0% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Median
1 16% 16% Last Result
2 0.1% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 146 100% 139–150 137–151 136–154 131–156
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 138 100% 129–143 125–143 123–145 121–147
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 128 98.9% 121–132 120–135 117–137 113–141
Partido Socialista 108 117 69% 110–126 109–127 108–128 104–134
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 64 0% 60–70 58–73 57–74 55–79

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0.4% 99.8%  
132 0.3% 99.4%  
133 0.4% 99.1%  
134 0.5% 98.7%  
135 0.6% 98%  
136 2% 98%  
137 3% 96%  
138 1.1% 92%  
139 9% 91% Last Result
140 0.6% 82%  
141 1.4% 81%  
142 5% 80%  
143 1.2% 75%  
144 3% 73% Median
145 3% 70%  
146 21% 67%  
147 1.4% 46%  
148 9% 45%  
149 3% 36%  
150 25% 33%  
151 3% 7%  
152 0.7% 5%  
153 0.7% 4%  
154 2% 3%  
155 0.3% 0.9%  
156 0.2% 0.6%  
157 0.1% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0.1% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.2% 99.8%  
121 0.1% 99.6%  
122 0.2% 99.5%  
123 3% 99.3%  
124 1.3% 96%  
125 0.6% 95%  
126 0.4% 94%  
127 2% 94% Last Result
128 0.5% 92%  
129 3% 92%  
130 13% 89%  
131 1.3% 76%  
132 5% 75%  
133 1.3% 69%  
134 2% 68%  
135 2% 66% Median
136 2% 64%  
137 1.3% 62%  
138 22% 61%  
139 2% 38%  
140 16% 36%  
141 7% 21%  
142 2% 13%  
143 9% 12%  
144 0.3% 3%  
145 0.2% 3%  
146 0.1% 2%  
147 2% 2%  
148 0% 0.3%  
149 0% 0.2%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0.4% 99.8%  
114 0.4% 99.4%  
115 0.2% 99.0%  
116 0.3% 98.9% Majority
117 2% 98.6%  
118 1.2% 97%  
119 0.7% 96%  
120 0.8% 95% Last Result
121 10% 94%  
122 2% 84%  
123 0.9% 83%  
124 7% 82%  
125 0.4% 74%  
126 16% 74% Median
127 5% 57%  
128 2% 52%  
129 20% 50%  
130 8% 30%  
131 3% 22%  
132 9% 19%  
133 4% 10%  
134 0.6% 6%  
135 1.1% 5%  
136 1.5% 4%  
137 0.6% 3%  
138 0.3% 2%  
139 0.1% 2%  
140 0.2% 2%  
141 2% 2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.3% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.6%  
104 0.2% 99.5%  
105 0.2% 99.3%  
106 0.6% 99.1%  
107 0.8% 98.5%  
108 2% 98% Last Result
109 2% 96%  
110 4% 93%  
111 3% 90%  
112 10% 86%  
113 1.1% 76%  
114 1.2% 75%  
115 5% 74%  
116 16% 69% Majority
117 5% 53% Median
118 0.8% 48%  
119 1.3% 48%  
120 2% 46%  
121 27% 44%  
122 1.2% 17%  
123 2% 16%  
124 3% 14%  
125 0.4% 11%  
126 0.3% 10%  
127 7% 10%  
128 1.3% 3%  
129 0.1% 2%  
130 0.1% 2%  
131 0.1% 2%  
132 0% 2%  
133 0% 2%  
134 2% 2%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.3% 99.6%  
56 0.7% 99.3%  
57 4% 98.6%  
58 2% 95%  
59 3% 93%  
60 3% 91%  
61 2% 87%  
62 7% 85%  
63 0.8% 78%  
64 36% 78% Median
65 9% 42%  
66 0.9% 33%  
67 3% 32%  
68 4% 29%  
69 6% 24%  
70 12% 19%  
71 0.7% 7%  
72 0.4% 6%  
73 0.8% 6%  
74 3% 5%  
75 0.8% 2%  
76 0.5% 1.4%  
77 0.2% 0.9%  
78 0.1% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.6%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations