Opinion Poll by Aximage for Jornal Económico, 5–8 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 39.9% 36.7–43.3% 35.8–44.3% 35.0–45.1% 33.5–46.7%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 25.7% 22.9–28.8% 22.1–29.7% 21.4–30.5% 20.2–32.0%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.1% 6.5–10.2% 6.1–10.9% 5.7–11.4% 5.0–12.5%
Chega 1.3% 5.3% 4.1–7.1% 3.7–7.7% 3.4–8.2% 2.9–9.1%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.0% 3.8–6.8% 3.5–7.3% 3.2–7.8% 2.7–8.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 4.2% 3.1–5.9% 2.8–6.4% 2.6–6.8% 2.1–7.7%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 1.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.7–2.9% 0.6–3.2% 0.4–3.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.1% 0.7–2.2% 0.5–2.5% 0.4–2.8% 0.3–3.5%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.3% 0.1–1.1% 0.1–1.3% 0.1–1.6% 0.0–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 118 105–131 104–131 102–133 96–137
Partido Social Democrata 79 67 62–82 58–82 57–84 54–91
Bloco de Esquerda 19 16 10–21 9–22 9–24 7–31
Chega 1 8 4–11 3–14 3–16 2–17
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 5–15 5–16 4–18 2–20
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 5 2–10 2–11 2–12 2–13
Iniciativa Liberal 1 1 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–5
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–4
LIVRE 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.7%  
94 0% 99.7%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.1% 99.5%  
97 0% 99.4%  
98 0.1% 99.4%  
99 0% 99.3%  
100 0.1% 99.3%  
101 0.2% 99.2%  
102 3% 99.0%  
103 0.4% 96%  
104 3% 95%  
105 7% 92%  
106 5% 85%  
107 0.9% 81%  
108 1.3% 80% Last Result
109 1.2% 79%  
110 3% 78%  
111 5% 75%  
112 4% 70%  
113 0.6% 66%  
114 2% 65%  
115 1.3% 63%  
116 1.2% 62% Majority
117 7% 61%  
118 6% 54% Median
119 8% 48%  
120 0.9% 40%  
121 1.0% 39%  
122 5% 38%  
123 0.5% 33%  
124 0.5% 32%  
125 4% 32%  
126 5% 27%  
127 0.5% 22%  
128 1.1% 22%  
129 3% 21%  
130 2% 18%  
131 13% 16%  
132 0.3% 3%  
133 0.3% 3%  
134 0.2% 2%  
135 0.8% 2%  
136 0.1% 1.4%  
137 0.8% 1.3%  
138 0% 0.4%  
139 0% 0.4%  
140 0.2% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.3%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.5%  
55 0.3% 99.4%  
56 1.4% 99.2%  
57 0.7% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 0.7% 94%  
60 3% 93%  
61 0.3% 90%  
62 3% 90%  
63 22% 87%  
64 3% 66%  
65 1.1% 62%  
66 4% 61%  
67 8% 57% Median
68 2% 49%  
69 0.3% 47%  
70 0.9% 46%  
71 0.8% 45%  
72 8% 45%  
73 1.0% 37%  
74 1.0% 36%  
75 1.4% 35%  
76 0.9% 34%  
77 5% 33%  
78 3% 28%  
79 6% 24% Last Result
80 4% 19%  
81 3% 15%  
82 8% 12%  
83 0.4% 4%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.4% 1.3%  
86 0% 0.9%  
87 0% 0.9%  
88 0.1% 0.8%  
89 0.1% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.7% 99.9%  
8 1.5% 99.1%  
9 7% 98%  
10 0.5% 90%  
11 1.2% 90%  
12 2% 89%  
13 4% 87%  
14 5% 83%  
15 12% 77%  
16 26% 66% Median
17 3% 40%  
18 11% 37%  
19 4% 26% Last Result
20 6% 22%  
21 12% 17%  
22 0.7% 5%  
23 1.1% 5%  
24 1.2% 3%  
25 0.4% 2%  
26 1.0% 2%  
27 0% 0.8%  
28 0% 0.8%  
29 0% 0.7%  
30 0% 0.7%  
31 0.4% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 1.2% 99.9%  
3 5% 98.8%  
4 11% 94%  
5 0.7% 83%  
6 1.3% 82%  
7 12% 81%  
8 33% 69% Median
9 11% 36%  
10 3% 25%  
11 14% 22%  
12 2% 8%  
13 0.4% 7%  
14 2% 6%  
15 0.3% 4%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0.2% 0.5%  
18 0% 0.3%  
19 0% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.3%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.8% 100%  
3 0.7% 99.2%  
4 4% 98.6%  
5 10% 95%  
6 12% 85%  
7 17% 74%  
8 17% 56% Median
9 5% 40%  
10 7% 35%  
11 3% 28%  
12 1.0% 24% Last Result
13 9% 23%  
14 1.5% 14%  
15 7% 13%  
16 3% 6%  
17 0.2% 3%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.1% 1.2%  
20 0.9% 1.1%  
21 0% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 15% 99.7%  
3 4% 84%  
4 29% 80% Last Result
5 8% 51% Median
6 11% 43%  
7 0.4% 32%  
8 5% 32%  
9 6% 27%  
10 11% 21%  
11 6% 10%  
12 3% 4%  
13 1.4% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 46% 89% Last Result, Median
2 4% 43%  
3 30% 39%  
4 7% 9%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Median
1 30% 36%  
2 4% 5%  
3 0.2% 0.8%  
4 0.2% 0.6%  
5 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Median
1 14% 15% Last Result
2 0.8% 1.1%  
3 0.2% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 143 99.9% 127–155 127–157 127–158 122–160
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 133 99.2% 121–147 120–147 119–148 112–153
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 129 82% 111–139 110–140 109–144 104–148
Partido Socialista 108 118 62% 105–131 104–131 102–133 96–137
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 67 0% 62–82 59–82 58–84 54–92

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9% Majority
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0% 99.7%  
121 0% 99.7%  
122 0.2% 99.6%  
123 0.2% 99.4%  
124 0.2% 99.2%  
125 0.1% 99.0%  
126 0.1% 98.9%  
127 12% 98.9%  
128 2% 86%  
129 1.3% 85%  
130 0.6% 84%  
131 1.2% 83%  
132 4% 82%  
133 1.0% 78%  
134 0.6% 77%  
135 0.6% 76%  
136 1.2% 75%  
137 4% 74%  
138 6% 70%  
139 3% 64% Last Result
140 3% 61%  
141 0.6% 59%  
142 2% 58% Median
143 7% 56%  
144 0.4% 48%  
145 2% 48%  
146 1.0% 46%  
147 1.1% 45%  
148 2% 44%  
149 4% 42%  
150 0.8% 39%  
151 7% 38%  
152 3% 30%  
153 4% 27%  
154 0.4% 23%  
155 13% 22%  
156 4% 9%  
157 0.4% 5%  
158 3% 5%  
159 0.3% 2%  
160 2% 2%  
161 0.1% 0.3%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0.1% 0.1%  
168 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.6%  
112 0.1% 99.5%  
113 0% 99.5%  
114 0.1% 99.4%  
115 0.2% 99.4%  
116 0.4% 99.2% Majority
117 0.3% 98.7%  
118 0.1% 98%  
119 1.3% 98%  
120 6% 97%  
121 7% 91%  
122 2% 84%  
123 2% 82%  
124 0.7% 80%  
125 2% 79%  
126 3% 77%  
127 1.4% 74% Last Result
128 7% 73%  
129 2% 66%  
130 3% 64%  
131 4% 61%  
132 2% 57%  
133 6% 55%  
134 2% 50% Median
135 2% 48%  
136 0.7% 46%  
137 1.4% 45%  
138 6% 44%  
139 0.5% 37%  
140 3% 37%  
141 2% 34%  
142 3% 32%  
143 2% 29%  
144 0.7% 27%  
145 4% 26%  
146 2% 22%  
147 17% 20%  
148 1.1% 3%  
149 0.5% 2%  
150 0.8% 2%  
151 0.2% 1.1%  
152 0.2% 0.8%  
153 0.2% 0.7%  
154 0% 0.4%  
155 0.1% 0.4%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.7%  
102 0% 99.7%  
103 0% 99.7%  
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.1% 99.5%  
106 0.1% 99.4%  
107 0.1% 99.3%  
108 0.1% 99.2%  
109 3% 99.1%  
110 3% 96%  
111 6% 94%  
112 0.9% 88%  
113 4% 87%  
114 0.5% 83%  
115 0.6% 82%  
116 1.1% 82% Majority
117 3% 80%  
118 0.7% 78%  
119 2% 77%  
120 0.7% 75% Last Result
121 2% 74%  
122 5% 72%  
123 6% 67%  
124 5% 61%  
125 1.1% 56%  
126 0.9% 55% Median
127 2% 54%  
128 0.9% 52%  
129 4% 51%  
130 6% 47%  
131 2% 41%  
132 1.3% 39%  
133 1.3% 38%  
134 9% 36%  
135 3% 27%  
136 1.2% 24%  
137 4% 23%  
138 0.1% 19%  
139 13% 19%  
140 2% 6%  
141 1.0% 4%  
142 0.1% 3%  
143 0.1% 3%  
144 0.6% 3%  
145 0.2% 2%  
146 0.2% 2%  
147 1.1% 2%  
148 0.6% 0.8%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.7%  
94 0% 99.7%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.1% 99.5%  
97 0% 99.4%  
98 0.1% 99.4%  
99 0% 99.3%  
100 0.1% 99.3%  
101 0.2% 99.2%  
102 3% 99.0%  
103 0.4% 96%  
104 3% 95%  
105 7% 92%  
106 5% 85%  
107 0.9% 81%  
108 1.3% 80% Last Result
109 1.2% 79%  
110 3% 78%  
111 5% 75%  
112 4% 70%  
113 0.6% 66%  
114 2% 65%  
115 1.3% 63%  
116 1.2% 62% Majority
117 7% 61%  
118 6% 54% Median
119 8% 48%  
120 0.9% 40%  
121 1.0% 39%  
122 5% 38%  
123 0.5% 33%  
124 0.5% 32%  
125 4% 32%  
126 5% 27%  
127 0.5% 22%  
128 1.1% 22%  
129 3% 21%  
130 2% 18%  
131 13% 16%  
132 0.3% 3%  
133 0.3% 3%  
134 0.2% 2%  
135 0.8% 2%  
136 0.1% 1.4%  
137 0.8% 1.3%  
138 0% 0.4%  
139 0% 0.4%  
140 0.2% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.3%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.6%  
55 0.1% 99.5%  
56 1.0% 99.4%  
57 0.6% 98%  
58 1.4% 98%  
59 2% 96%  
60 3% 94%  
61 0.5% 91%  
62 3% 90%  
63 6% 88%  
64 18% 81%  
65 1.3% 63%  
66 3% 62%  
67 9% 58% Median
68 0.6% 49%  
69 0.4% 48%  
70 2% 48%  
71 0.5% 46%  
72 1.0% 45%  
73 8% 44%  
74 0.9% 37%  
75 1.1% 36%  
76 1.5% 35%  
77 5% 33%  
78 3% 28%  
79 5% 25%  
80 5% 20%  
81 4% 15%  
82 8% 12%  
83 0.4% 4%  
84 2% 3% Last Result
85 0.4% 1.3%  
86 0.1% 0.9%  
87 0% 0.9%  
88 0% 0.8%  
89 0.1% 0.8%  
90 0.1% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.4%  
94 0% 0.3%  
95 0% 0.3%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations