Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 9–13 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 40.0% 37.5–42.6% 36.8–43.3% 36.2–43.9% 35.0–45.2%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 24.1% 22.0–26.4% 21.4–27.1% 20.9–27.7% 19.9–28.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 9.8% 8.4–11.6% 8.0–12.0% 7.7–12.5% 7.1–13.3%
Chega 1.3% 6.7% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.6% 5.0–9.0% 4.5–9.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 6.2% 5.1–7.7% 4.8–8.1% 4.6–8.4% 4.1–9.2%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 4.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.7% 2.8–6.0% 2.4–6.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.1% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.8% 1.7–5.4%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.0% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2% 1.1–3.4% 0.9–3.9%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 112 108–121 108–124 105–126 102–127
Partido Social Democrata 79 67 58–70 55–72 55–76 53–79
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 17–22 16–24 15–24 13–28
Chega 1 11 8–14 8–14 6–14 5–17
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 13 8–14 7–15 6–16 5–18
CDS–Partido Popular 5 5 2–5 2–5 1–8 1–10
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–4 2–4 2–6 1–6
Iniciativa Liberal 1 2 1–4 1–4 1–4 0–5
LIVRE 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.1% 99.7%  
102 0.1% 99.5%  
103 0.2% 99.4%  
104 0.8% 99.2%  
105 2% 98%  
106 0.6% 97%  
107 0.5% 96%  
108 6% 96% Last Result
109 6% 90%  
110 2% 84%  
111 29% 82%  
112 5% 53% Median
113 0.8% 48%  
114 11% 47%  
115 2% 36%  
116 6% 34% Majority
117 3% 28%  
118 11% 25%  
119 0.9% 14%  
120 2% 13%  
121 3% 10%  
122 0.4% 7%  
123 1.4% 7%  
124 1.3% 5%  
125 0.4% 4%  
126 3% 4%  
127 0.1% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.5%  
129 0.1% 0.4%  
130 0.2% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.8%  
54 0.3% 98%  
55 3% 98%  
56 0.7% 95%  
57 2% 94%  
58 5% 92%  
59 11% 86%  
60 4% 76%  
61 1.4% 72%  
62 0.5% 70%  
63 0.9% 70%  
64 7% 69%  
65 4% 62%  
66 5% 58%  
67 29% 53% Median
68 6% 24%  
69 3% 17%  
70 5% 14%  
71 0.7% 9%  
72 5% 8%  
73 0.1% 3%  
74 0.4% 3%  
75 0.1% 3%  
76 0.9% 3%  
77 0% 2%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
80 0% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.6%  
14 0.6% 99.3%  
15 3% 98.7%  
16 4% 95%  
17 35% 91%  
18 10% 57% Median
19 18% 46% Last Result
20 12% 28%  
21 4% 16%  
22 4% 12%  
23 2% 8%  
24 5% 7%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.8%  
27 0.1% 0.7%  
28 0.2% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.4%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 2% 99.8%  
6 1.0% 98%  
7 0.4% 97%  
8 10% 96%  
9 13% 86%  
10 8% 73%  
11 47% 65% Median
12 2% 19%  
13 6% 17%  
14 10% 11%  
15 0.1% 1.4%  
16 0.4% 1.3%  
17 0.6% 0.9%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 2% 99.1%  
7 3% 97%  
8 11% 94%  
9 5% 83%  
10 12% 79%  
11 5% 67%  
12 5% 61% Last Result
13 16% 56% Median
14 34% 40%  
15 2% 6%  
16 2% 4%  
17 1.5% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 15% 96%  
3 5% 81%  
4 17% 76%  
5 55% 60% Last Result, Median
6 0.4% 4%  
7 0.2% 4%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.4% 0.9%  
10 0.2% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.3%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 1.1% 99.9%  
2 24% 98.9%  
3 36% 75% Median
4 35% 40% Last Result
5 1.4% 4%  
6 2% 3%  
7 0.2% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 15% 98% Last Result
2 34% 83% Median
3 39% 49%  
4 9% 10%  
5 0.6% 0.9%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Median
1 32% 32% Last Result
2 0.6% 0.7%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 142 100% 138–151 136–153 134–155 130–158
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 131 100% 126–141 126–144 124–145 122–146
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 125 97% 120–131 118–134 115–135 112–137
Partido Socialista 108 112 34% 108–121 108–124 105–126 102–127
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 70 0% 63–74 60–75 59–80 55–84

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0.1% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.8%  
130 0.6% 99.7%  
131 0.1% 99.1%  
132 0.2% 99.0%  
133 0.1% 98.7%  
134 1.5% 98.6%  
135 0.3% 97%  
136 5% 97%  
137 0.5% 92%  
138 2% 91%  
139 6% 89% Last Result
140 0.9% 83%  
141 0.5% 82%  
142 34% 82%  
143 4% 48% Median
144 1.1% 44%  
145 4% 43%  
146 1.0% 39%  
147 9% 38%  
148 3% 29%  
149 2% 26%  
150 13% 23%  
151 3% 10%  
152 0.4% 7%  
153 4% 7%  
154 0.7% 3%  
155 0.7% 3%  
156 0.2% 2%  
157 0.4% 2%  
158 1.0% 1.2%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0.1% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.2% 99.7%  
122 0.3% 99.5%  
123 1.3% 99.2%  
124 1.0% 98%  
125 0.3% 97%  
126 7% 97%  
127 1.4% 90% Last Result
128 29% 88%  
129 7% 59%  
130 2% 53% Median
131 4% 50%  
132 5% 46%  
133 0.6% 41%  
134 1.3% 40%  
135 6% 39%  
136 5% 33%  
137 10% 28%  
138 5% 18%  
139 0.8% 12%  
140 0.2% 11%  
141 1.4% 11%  
142 0.4% 10%  
143 4% 9%  
144 2% 6%  
145 3% 4%  
146 0.1% 0.6%  
147 0.1% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.4%  
149 0% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.2%  
151 0.2% 0.2%  
152 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.3% 99.6%  
113 0.1% 99.3%  
114 0.2% 99.3%  
115 2% 99.0%  
116 0.4% 97% Majority
117 0.4% 97%  
118 5% 96%  
119 0.7% 91%  
120 0.9% 90% Last Result
121 1.5% 89%  
122 11% 88%  
123 7% 77%  
124 3% 70%  
125 30% 67% Median
126 1.0% 37%  
127 3% 36%  
128 2% 32%  
129 5% 30%  
130 5% 26%  
131 13% 20%  
132 1.0% 7%  
133 0.4% 6%  
134 4% 6%  
135 0.4% 3%  
136 0.4% 2%  
137 1.3% 2%  
138 0.1% 0.4%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.1% 99.7%  
102 0.1% 99.5%  
103 0.2% 99.4%  
104 0.8% 99.2%  
105 2% 98%  
106 0.6% 97%  
107 0.5% 96%  
108 6% 96% Last Result
109 6% 90%  
110 2% 84%  
111 29% 82%  
112 5% 53% Median
113 0.8% 48%  
114 11% 47%  
115 2% 36%  
116 6% 34% Majority
117 3% 28%  
118 11% 25%  
119 0.9% 14%  
120 2% 13%  
121 3% 10%  
122 0.4% 7%  
123 1.4% 7%  
124 1.3% 5%  
125 0.4% 4%  
126 3% 4%  
127 0.1% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.5%  
129 0.1% 0.4%  
130 0.2% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.9% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.0%  
57 0.1% 98.8%  
58 0.8% 98.7%  
59 0.7% 98%  
60 3% 97%  
61 2% 94%  
62 0.7% 92%  
63 13% 91%  
64 4% 78%  
65 2% 74%  
66 3% 72%  
67 2% 68%  
68 5% 66%  
69 5% 62%  
70 7% 56%  
71 3% 49%  
72 28% 47% Median
73 3% 18%  
74 6% 16%  
75 5% 10%  
76 0.8% 5%  
77 0.9% 4%  
78 0.2% 3%  
79 0.3% 3%  
80 1.1% 3%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0% 1.0%  
83 0.1% 0.9%  
84 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
85 0% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations