Opinion Poll by Aximage for Jornal Económico, 5–8 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 40.4% 37.9–42.9% 37.2–43.7% 36.6–44.3% 35.4–45.5%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 26.8% 24.6–29.1% 24.0–29.8% 23.4–30.4% 22.4–31.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.5% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.5% 6.6–11.0% 6.0–11.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.9% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7% 4.3–8.1% 3.9–8.8%
Chega 1.3% 5.1% 4.2–6.4% 3.9–6.8% 3.7–7.2% 3.2–7.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.6% 1.9–3.6% 1.7–3.9% 1.6–4.1% 1.3–4.7%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.1% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.5% 1.0–4.0%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.1% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.5% 1.0–4.0%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 119 112–127 109–129 105–130 102–136
Partido Social Democrata 79 67 64–73 63–80 62–83 58–87
Bloco de Esquerda 19 15 13–19 11–20 10–21 9–24
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 12 7–16 7–16 7–16 5–17
Chega 1 8 5–11 4–11 3–11 3–13
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–4 1–4 1–5 0–6
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–5
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 1–4 1–5 1–5 1–6
LIVRE 1 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.8%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0% 99.6%  
102 0.2% 99.5%  
103 0.6% 99.3%  
104 0.8% 98.7%  
105 0.6% 98%  
106 0.3% 97%  
107 0.3% 97%  
108 1.2% 97% Last Result
109 1.2% 95%  
110 0.4% 94%  
111 1.3% 94%  
112 6% 93%  
113 7% 87%  
114 0.5% 79%  
115 17% 79%  
116 1.2% 61% Majority
117 3% 60%  
118 0.7% 57%  
119 7% 57% Median
120 6% 50%  
121 2% 44%  
122 0.8% 42%  
123 4% 41%  
124 0.4% 38%  
125 25% 37%  
126 1.0% 12%  
127 3% 11%  
128 0.6% 8%  
129 4% 8%  
130 1.2% 3%  
131 0.4% 2%  
132 0.1% 2%  
133 0.1% 2%  
134 0% 2%  
135 0.7% 2%  
136 0.8% 0.8%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.7% 99.9%  
59 0.6% 99.2%  
60 0.1% 98.5%  
61 0.6% 98%  
62 1.0% 98%  
63 4% 97%  
64 12% 93%  
65 25% 82%  
66 4% 57%  
67 7% 53% Median
68 7% 46%  
69 9% 39%  
70 2% 30%  
71 16% 28%  
72 0.7% 12%  
73 3% 11%  
74 0.6% 8%  
75 0.2% 8%  
76 0.4% 8%  
77 0.7% 7%  
78 0.8% 7%  
79 0.5% 6% Last Result
80 0.4% 5%  
81 0.7% 5%  
82 0.9% 4%  
83 1.2% 3%  
84 0.3% 2%  
85 0% 2%  
86 0.4% 2%  
87 0.8% 1.2%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.7%  
9 0.7% 99.6%  
10 3% 98.8%  
11 1.0% 95%  
12 2% 94%  
13 6% 92%  
14 24% 86%  
15 21% 62% Median
16 6% 42%  
17 6% 35%  
18 12% 29%  
19 9% 18% Last Result
20 6% 8%  
21 1.3% 3%  
22 0.6% 1.5%  
23 0.3% 0.8%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 0.7% 99.2%  
7 10% 98.5%  
8 5% 88%  
9 1.3% 83%  
10 4% 82%  
11 28% 78%  
12 3% 51% Last Result, Median
13 18% 48%  
14 9% 30%  
15 7% 20%  
16 11% 13%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.2% 100%  
3 3% 99.8%  
4 5% 97%  
5 2% 92%  
6 3% 90%  
7 0.7% 87%  
8 54% 86% Median
9 2% 33%  
10 3% 30%  
11 25% 27%  
12 0.6% 2%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 8% 99.1%  
2 32% 91%  
3 40% 59% Median
4 16% 19% Last Result
5 1.3% 3%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100%  
1 58% 70% Median
2 7% 12%  
3 2% 5%  
4 1.4% 2%  
5 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 22% 99.8% Last Result
2 4% 77%  
3 61% 73% Median
4 5% 13%  
5 7% 8%  
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Median
1 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 148 100% 141–153 136–155 132–157 129–161
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 136 99.8% 128–142 126–145 123–147 118–154
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 133 97% 125–136 118–139 115–140 114–143
Partido Socialista 108 119 61% 112–127 109–129 105–130 102–136
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 68 0% 64–74 64–82 63–85 59–89

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0% 99.8%  
126 0% 99.8%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0.3% 99.8%  
130 0.9% 99.5%  
131 0.9% 98.5%  
132 0.8% 98%  
133 0.4% 97%  
134 0.5% 96%  
135 0.7% 96%  
136 0.9% 95%  
137 0.4% 94%  
138 0.7% 94%  
139 0.2% 93% Last Result
140 2% 93%  
141 3% 91%  
142 3% 87%  
143 12% 84%  
144 2% 72%  
145 0.7% 70%  
146 9% 70% Median
147 8% 61%  
148 3% 53%  
149 3% 50%  
150 29% 47%  
151 3% 17%  
152 3% 14%  
153 3% 11%  
154 2% 8%  
155 2% 7%  
156 2% 5%  
157 0.7% 3%  
158 0.7% 2%  
159 0.1% 1.3%  
160 0.2% 1.2%  
161 0.6% 1.0%  
162 0.2% 0.4%  
163 0.2% 0.2%  
164 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.8%  
114 0% 99.8%  
115 0% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.8% Majority
117 0.1% 99.6%  
118 0.4% 99.6%  
119 0% 99.1%  
120 0.6% 99.1%  
121 0.2% 98%  
122 0.5% 98%  
123 1.3% 98%  
124 0.5% 96%  
125 0.2% 96%  
126 1.0% 96%  
127 0.9% 95% Last Result
128 8% 94%  
129 2% 86%  
130 14% 84%  
131 0.7% 70%  
132 3% 70%  
133 7% 66%  
134 9% 59% Median
135 0.4% 50%  
136 0.6% 50%  
137 7% 49%  
138 1.1% 42%  
139 27% 41%  
140 2% 14%  
141 1.4% 13%  
142 1.5% 11%  
143 2% 10%  
144 1.4% 7%  
145 3% 6%  
146 0.2% 3%  
147 0.6% 3%  
148 0.2% 2%  
149 0.4% 2%  
150 0.1% 2%  
151 0.7% 2%  
152 0.2% 0.9%  
153 0% 0.6%  
154 0.6% 0.6%  
155 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0.1% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.8%  
111 0% 99.8%  
112 0% 99.7%  
113 0.1% 99.7%  
114 1.3% 99.6%  
115 1.5% 98%  
116 0.9% 97% Majority
117 0.9% 96%  
118 0.1% 95%  
119 0.6% 95%  
120 0.9% 94% Last Result
121 0.1% 93%  
122 0.1% 93%  
123 1.1% 93%  
124 0.1% 92%  
125 3% 92%  
126 1.0% 89%  
127 6% 88%  
128 20% 81%  
129 0.1% 62%  
130 4% 61%  
131 1.4% 58% Median
132 4% 56%  
133 6% 52%  
134 3% 47%  
135 6% 43%  
136 29% 37%  
137 1.4% 8%  
138 1.2% 7%  
139 2% 6%  
140 2% 4%  
141 0.7% 2%  
142 0.7% 2%  
143 0.7% 0.9%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.8%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0% 99.6%  
102 0.2% 99.5%  
103 0.6% 99.3%  
104 0.8% 98.7%  
105 0.6% 98%  
106 0.3% 97%  
107 0.3% 97%  
108 1.2% 97% Last Result
109 1.2% 95%  
110 0.4% 94%  
111 1.3% 94%  
112 6% 93%  
113 7% 87%  
114 0.5% 79%  
115 17% 79%  
116 1.2% 61% Majority
117 3% 60%  
118 0.7% 57%  
119 7% 57% Median
120 6% 50%  
121 2% 44%  
122 0.8% 42%  
123 4% 41%  
124 0.4% 38%  
125 25% 37%  
126 1.0% 12%  
127 3% 11%  
128 0.6% 8%  
129 4% 8%  
130 1.2% 3%  
131 0.4% 2%  
132 0.1% 2%  
133 0.1% 2%  
134 0% 2%  
135 0.7% 2%  
136 0.8% 0.8%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.4% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.6%  
60 0.5% 99.1%  
61 0.2% 98.6%  
62 0.4% 98%  
63 2% 98%  
64 10% 96%  
65 5% 87%  
66 27% 82%  
67 3% 55%  
68 9% 52% Median
69 6% 43%  
70 7% 37%  
71 3% 30%  
72 15% 27%  
73 1.3% 12%  
74 2% 11%  
75 0.3% 8%  
76 0.2% 8%  
77 0.9% 8%  
78 0.7% 7%  
79 0.3% 6%  
80 0.5% 6%  
81 0.4% 6%  
82 0.3% 5%  
83 0.2% 5%  
84 1.1% 5% Last Result
85 1.3% 4%  
86 0.2% 2%  
87 0.6% 2%  
88 0.9% 1.4%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations