Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 8–13 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 39.0% 36.6–41.6% 35.9–42.3% 35.3–42.9% 34.1–44.2%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 23.9% 21.8–26.2% 21.2–26.8% 20.7–27.4% 19.7–28.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 10.5% 9.1–12.2% 8.6–12.7% 8.3–13.2% 7.7–14.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 6.1% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–8.0% 4.5–8.3% 4.0–9.0%
Chega 1.3% 6.1% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–8.0% 4.5–8.3% 4.0–9.0%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 4.8% 3.9–6.1% 3.6–6.5% 3.4–6.8% 3.0–7.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.1% 2.3–4.2% 2.1–4.5% 2.0–4.7% 1.7–5.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.7% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.1% 1.7–4.4% 1.4–4.9%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.3% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.1–1.2% 0.0–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 111 105–122 102–122 100–122 98–129
Partido Social Democrata 79 64 58–70 55–72 54–74 53–77
Bloco de Esquerda 19 21 16–24 16–26 16–28 15–32
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 11 6–15 6–16 6–17 6–19
Chega 1 11 7–11 6–13 5–14 4–15
CDS–Partido Popular 5 5 4–8 3–9 2–10 2–15
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–4 2–6 1–6 1–7
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 3–6 2–6 1–6 1–6
LIVRE 1 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.7%  
98 0.7% 99.7%  
99 0.1% 99.0%  
100 2% 98.9%  
101 0.4% 97%  
102 3% 97%  
103 0.4% 93%  
104 0.5% 93%  
105 5% 93%  
106 1.4% 87%  
107 5% 86%  
108 2% 80% Last Result
109 10% 78%  
110 10% 68%  
111 13% 58% Median
112 2% 45%  
113 12% 43%  
114 3% 31%  
115 2% 28%  
116 3% 26% Majority
117 2% 24%  
118 3% 22%  
119 1.4% 19%  
120 4% 17%  
121 0.4% 14%  
122 12% 13%  
123 0% 1.4%  
124 0.4% 1.3%  
125 0.1% 0.9%  
126 0.1% 0.8%  
127 0.1% 0.7%  
128 0% 0.6%  
129 0.5% 0.6%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.7%  
52 0% 99.6%  
53 0.2% 99.6%  
54 4% 99.3%  
55 2% 96%  
56 0.6% 94%  
57 2% 93%  
58 5% 91%  
59 2% 86%  
60 1.0% 84%  
61 13% 83%  
62 3% 70%  
63 15% 68%  
64 4% 52% Median
65 4% 49%  
66 9% 45%  
67 16% 36%  
68 4% 20%  
69 1.0% 17%  
70 7% 16%  
71 2% 9%  
72 3% 6%  
73 0.2% 3%  
74 0.8% 3%  
75 0.1% 2%  
76 1.2% 2%  
77 0.1% 0.6%  
78 0.1% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
80 0% 0.3%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 99.9%  
14 0.2% 99.8%  
15 2% 99.6%  
16 14% 98%  
17 2% 83%  
18 16% 81%  
19 6% 65% Last Result
20 2% 59%  
21 10% 57% Median
22 7% 46%  
23 24% 39%  
24 6% 16%  
25 5% 10%  
26 2% 5%  
27 0.2% 3%  
28 0.4% 3%  
29 1.5% 2%  
30 0.4% 1.0%  
31 0.1% 0.6%  
32 0.2% 0.5%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 12% 99.6%  
7 3% 88%  
8 4% 85%  
9 4% 81%  
10 24% 77%  
11 14% 54% Median
12 10% 40% Last Result
13 10% 30%  
14 8% 20%  
15 7% 12%  
16 2% 6%  
17 2% 4%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.5%  
20 0.2% 0.4%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 2% 99.7%  
5 1.2% 98%  
6 4% 97%  
7 3% 93%  
8 30% 90%  
9 3% 60%  
10 6% 57%  
11 43% 51% Median
12 0.8% 8%  
13 3% 7%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.1% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.5%  
17 0.3% 0.4%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 3% 99.9%  
3 2% 97%  
4 18% 94%  
5 53% 76% Last Result, Median
6 4% 23%  
7 3% 19%  
8 9% 17%  
9 4% 8%  
10 0.9% 3%  
11 0.2% 2%  
12 0.8% 2%  
13 0.5% 1.4%  
14 0.4% 0.9%  
15 0.4% 0.6%  
16 0% 0.2%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 3% 99.9%  
2 30% 97%  
3 32% 68% Median
4 27% 35% Last Result
5 3% 9%  
6 5% 6%  
7 0.3% 0.8%  
8 0.3% 0.5%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 3% 97%  
3 58% 94% Median
4 17% 36%  
5 5% 18%  
6 13% 13%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 6% 6% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 144 100% 138–151 137–153 135–155 129–156
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 133 99.9% 126–140 125–142 122–143 119–147
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 122 93% 116–133 114–133 112–133 105–137
Partido Socialista 108 111 26% 105–122 102–122 100–122 98–129
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 70 0% 63–74 62–79 61–80 59–84

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.7%  
129 0.2% 99.7%  
130 0.1% 99.5%  
131 0.6% 99.4%  
132 0.3% 98.8%  
133 0.2% 98.5%  
134 0.2% 98%  
135 2% 98%  
136 0.6% 96%  
137 0.5% 95%  
138 6% 95%  
139 16% 88% Last Result
140 4% 73%  
141 6% 68%  
142 7% 62%  
143 2% 56% Median
144 6% 54%  
145 16% 48%  
146 5% 32%  
147 0.4% 27%  
148 0.3% 26%  
149 14% 26%  
150 0.6% 12%  
151 3% 12%  
152 3% 9%  
153 1.2% 6%  
154 0.7% 5%  
155 3% 4%  
156 0.3% 0.8%  
157 0% 0.5%  
158 0.1% 0.4%  
159 0.1% 0.3%  
160 0.2% 0.3%  
161 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9% Majority
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.3% 99.8%  
120 0.1% 99.5%  
121 2% 99.4%  
122 0.6% 98%  
123 0.3% 97%  
124 0.7% 97%  
125 4% 96%  
126 3% 92%  
127 5% 89% Last Result
128 3% 84%  
129 15% 82%  
130 3% 67%  
131 3% 63%  
132 10% 61% Median
133 5% 51%  
134 8% 45%  
135 4% 38%  
136 7% 34%  
137 3% 27%  
138 11% 24%  
139 3% 13%  
140 4% 10%  
141 0.6% 6%  
142 0.5% 5%  
143 3% 5%  
144 0.2% 2%  
145 0.4% 1.4%  
146 0% 1.1%  
147 0.7% 1.0%  
148 0.2% 0.3%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0.4% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.4%  
107 0.1% 99.4%  
108 0% 99.3%  
109 0.4% 99.2%  
110 0.4% 98.9%  
111 0.3% 98%  
112 1.4% 98%  
113 0.1% 97%  
114 2% 97%  
115 2% 95%  
116 4% 93% Majority
117 5% 89%  
118 0.9% 84%  
119 8% 83%  
120 4% 75% Last Result
121 14% 72%  
122 15% 58% Median
123 6% 43%  
124 8% 38%  
125 3% 30%  
126 0.2% 27%  
127 0.3% 27%  
128 6% 27%  
129 3% 21%  
130 0.8% 17%  
131 1.2% 17%  
132 3% 15%  
133 10% 12%  
134 0.4% 1.5%  
135 0% 1.1%  
136 0.5% 1.0%  
137 0.1% 0.5%  
138 0.2% 0.5%  
139 0% 0.3%  
140 0% 0.3%  
141 0% 0.2%  
142 0.2% 0.2%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.7%  
98 0.7% 99.7%  
99 0.1% 99.0%  
100 2% 98.9%  
101 0.4% 97%  
102 3% 97%  
103 0.4% 93%  
104 0.5% 93%  
105 5% 93%  
106 1.4% 87%  
107 5% 86%  
108 2% 80% Last Result
109 10% 78%  
110 10% 68%  
111 13% 58% Median
112 2% 45%  
113 12% 43%  
114 3% 31%  
115 2% 28%  
116 3% 26% Majority
117 2% 24%  
118 3% 22%  
119 1.4% 19%  
120 4% 17%  
121 0.4% 14%  
122 12% 13%  
123 0% 1.4%  
124 0.4% 1.3%  
125 0.1% 0.9%  
126 0.1% 0.8%  
127 0.1% 0.7%  
128 0% 0.6%  
129 0.5% 0.6%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.7%  
59 0.4% 99.5%  
60 1.4% 99.2%  
61 0.5% 98%  
62 5% 97%  
63 3% 92%  
64 3% 89%  
65 0.7% 87%  
66 13% 86%  
67 6% 73%  
68 15% 67%  
69 2% 52% Median
70 6% 50%  
71 2% 44%  
72 19% 42%  
73 3% 24%  
74 11% 20%  
75 0.3% 10%  
76 1.1% 9%  
77 1.2% 8%  
78 0.8% 7%  
79 2% 6%  
80 3% 4%  
81 0.5% 1.3%  
82 0.2% 0.8%  
83 0% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.6% Last Result
85 0% 0.4%  
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations