Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 4–9 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.5% 35.0–40.0% 34.3–40.7% 33.7–41.4% 32.6–42.6%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 24.3% 22.1–26.6% 21.6–27.3% 21.0–27.8% 20.1–29.0%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 9.9% 8.5–11.6% 8.1–12.1% 7.8–12.6% 7.2–13.4%
Chega 1.3% 7.3% 6.1–8.9% 5.8–9.3% 5.5–9.7% 5.0–10.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.0% 4.1–6.4% 3.8–6.8% 3.6–7.1% 3.2–7.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 4.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.1–5.8% 2.9–6.1% 2.5–6.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 4.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.8–5.9% 2.4–6.6%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.1% 1.5–3.1% 1.4–3.4% 1.2–3.6% 1.0–4.1%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.3% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.1–1.2% 0.0–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 110 104–117 101–120 98–120 95–126
Partido Social Democrata 79 66 60–72 57–74 56–77 53–79
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 17–23 16–26 14–28 13–31
Chega 1 11 10–16 8–18 8–19 8–23
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 6–12 5–13 5–14 4–15
CDS–Partido Popular 5 5 3–9 2–9 2–9 1–13
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 6 3–8 3–9 2–11 2–11
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 1–3 1–4 1–4 0–6
LIVRE 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0% 99.7%  
95 0.4% 99.7%  
96 0.3% 99.3%  
97 0.2% 99.0%  
98 1.4% 98.8%  
99 0.7% 97%  
100 0.9% 97%  
101 1.1% 96%  
102 0.4% 95%  
103 1.1% 94%  
104 5% 93%  
105 3% 88%  
106 11% 85%  
107 2% 74%  
108 17% 73% Last Result
109 5% 55%  
110 9% 51% Median
111 6% 41%  
112 8% 35%  
113 7% 28%  
114 4% 20%  
115 0.8% 16%  
116 0.9% 15% Majority
117 8% 15%  
118 0.4% 6%  
119 0.7% 6%  
120 3% 5%  
121 0.1% 2%  
122 0.4% 2%  
123 0.4% 2%  
124 0.2% 1.1%  
125 0.2% 0.9%  
126 0.5% 0.6%  
127 0% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.7%  
54 0.1% 99.2%  
55 0.2% 99.1%  
56 2% 98.9%  
57 3% 97%  
58 0.7% 94%  
59 0.7% 93%  
60 8% 93%  
61 3% 84%  
62 4% 82%  
63 9% 78%  
64 4% 69%  
65 10% 65%  
66 8% 56% Median
67 2% 48%  
68 3% 46%  
69 3% 43%  
70 7% 40%  
71 9% 34%  
72 16% 24%  
73 0.4% 8%  
74 3% 8%  
75 0.2% 4%  
76 0.4% 4%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.5%  
81 0% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.4%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9%  
13 0.4% 99.7%  
14 2% 99.3%  
15 1.4% 97%  
16 5% 96%  
17 11% 90%  
18 31% 79% Median
19 3% 48% Last Result
20 7% 45%  
21 14% 38%  
22 8% 25%  
23 8% 17%  
24 1.4% 9%  
25 0.9% 7%  
26 2% 6%  
27 1.1% 4%  
28 0.5% 3%  
29 1.3% 2%  
30 0.2% 1.0%  
31 0.6% 0.8%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 0.1% 99.8%  
7 0.2% 99.8%  
8 5% 99.6%  
9 0.8% 95%  
10 10% 94%  
11 42% 83% Median
12 2% 42%  
13 8% 39%  
14 19% 32%  
15 0.6% 13%  
16 3% 12%  
17 1.0% 9%  
18 5% 8%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.3% 1.3%  
21 0.2% 1.0%  
22 0.2% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.5%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.8%  
4 1.0% 99.6%  
5 4% 98.6%  
6 27% 94%  
7 12% 67%  
8 12% 55% Median
9 4% 43%  
10 23% 39%  
11 3% 16%  
12 6% 13% Last Result
13 3% 8%  
14 4% 5%  
15 0.6% 0.9%  
16 0.1% 0.3%  
17 0% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.1% 100%  
2 6% 98.9%  
3 3% 93%  
4 36% 90%  
5 32% 54% Last Result, Median
6 1.3% 22%  
7 4% 20%  
8 6% 17%  
9 8% 11%  
10 0.3% 2%  
11 0.8% 2%  
12 0.5% 1.3%  
13 0.5% 0.8%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 4% 100%  
3 7% 96%  
4 25% 88% Last Result
5 7% 63%  
6 37% 56% Median
7 2% 19%  
8 9% 18%  
9 4% 8%  
10 2% 5%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 41% 99.1% Last Result
2 4% 58%  
3 47% 54% Median
4 5% 7%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 4% 4% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 136 100% 132–144 128–147 127–150 124–153
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 129 99.7% 124–138 122–138 119–141 117–147
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 118 81% 111–125 110–127 106–129 103–134
Partido Socialista 108 110 15% 104–117 101–120 98–120 95–126
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 73 0% 65–77 62–79 60–82 58–85

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.8%  
123 0.2% 99.8%  
124 0.2% 99.6%  
125 0.4% 99.4%  
126 2% 99.1%  
127 0.3% 98%  
128 3% 97%  
129 0.5% 94%  
130 1.0% 94%  
131 1.0% 93%  
132 2% 92%  
133 5% 90%  
134 7% 84%  
135 11% 77%  
136 20% 67% Median
137 2% 47%  
138 2% 45%  
139 2% 43% Last Result
140 1.3% 41%  
141 8% 39%  
142 12% 31%  
143 2% 19%  
144 10% 17%  
145 0.4% 7%  
146 0.9% 7%  
147 2% 6%  
148 0.7% 4%  
149 0.5% 3%  
150 0.5% 3%  
151 0.4% 2%  
152 0.6% 2%  
153 0.8% 1.1%  
154 0% 0.3%  
155 0% 0.3%  
156 0.2% 0.3%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.1% 99.7% Majority
117 0.3% 99.6%  
118 0.6% 99.3%  
119 2% 98.7%  
120 0.6% 97%  
121 0.7% 97%  
122 4% 96%  
123 1.0% 92%  
124 6% 91%  
125 2% 84%  
126 20% 82%  
127 3% 62% Last Result
128 6% 60% Median
129 11% 54%  
130 7% 43%  
131 1.2% 35%  
132 0.7% 34%  
133 7% 33%  
134 10% 26%  
135 1.2% 16%  
136 1.1% 15%  
137 3% 14%  
138 7% 11%  
139 0.8% 4%  
140 0.4% 3%  
141 0.7% 3%  
142 0.2% 2%  
143 0.1% 2%  
144 0.5% 2%  
145 0.5% 1.5%  
146 0.3% 1.0%  
147 0.5% 0.6%  
148 0% 0.2%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.5%  
104 0.3% 99.4%  
105 1.3% 99.1%  
106 0.5% 98%  
107 0.4% 97%  
108 1.1% 97%  
109 0.5% 96%  
110 4% 95%  
111 2% 92%  
112 2% 89%  
113 0.9% 87%  
114 1.1% 86%  
115 4% 85%  
116 8% 81% Majority
117 7% 73%  
118 28% 66% Median
119 4% 38%  
120 4% 34% Last Result
121 9% 30%  
122 4% 21%  
123 7% 18%  
124 0.8% 11%  
125 2% 10%  
126 1.1% 8%  
127 3% 7%  
128 1.5% 4%  
129 0.5% 3%  
130 0.5% 2%  
131 0.4% 2%  
132 0.6% 1.3%  
133 0.2% 0.7%  
134 0.4% 0.5%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0% 99.7%  
95 0.4% 99.7%  
96 0.3% 99.3%  
97 0.2% 99.0%  
98 1.4% 98.8%  
99 0.7% 97%  
100 0.9% 97%  
101 1.1% 96%  
102 0.4% 95%  
103 1.1% 94%  
104 5% 93%  
105 3% 88%  
106 11% 85%  
107 2% 74%  
108 17% 73% Last Result
109 5% 55%  
110 9% 51% Median
111 6% 41%  
112 8% 35%  
113 7% 28%  
114 4% 20%  
115 0.8% 16%  
116 0.9% 15% Majority
117 8% 15%  
118 0.4% 6%  
119 0.7% 6%  
120 3% 5%  
121 0.1% 2%  
122 0.4% 2%  
123 0.4% 2%  
124 0.2% 1.1%  
125 0.2% 0.9%  
126 0.5% 0.6%  
127 0% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.6%  
59 0% 98.9%  
60 2% 98.9%  
61 1.2% 97%  
62 1.3% 96%  
63 0.6% 94%  
64 2% 94%  
65 7% 92%  
66 2% 85%  
67 6% 83%  
68 9% 78%  
69 2% 69%  
70 5% 66%  
71 4% 61% Median
72 2% 57%  
73 5% 54%  
74 8% 49%  
75 8% 42%  
76 22% 33%  
77 2% 11%  
78 3% 9%  
79 0.6% 5%  
80 1.3% 5%  
81 0.7% 3%  
82 1.3% 3%  
83 0.2% 1.3%  
84 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
85 0.2% 0.6%  
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations