Opinion Poll by Aximage, 12–15 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.6% 35.2–40.2% 34.5–41.0% 33.9–41.6% 32.7–42.8%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 23.9% 21.7–26.2% 21.2–26.9% 20.6–27.5% 19.7–28.6%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.3% 7.0–9.9% 6.6–10.4% 6.3–10.8% 5.8–11.6%
Chega 1.3% 6.8% 5.6–8.3% 5.3–8.7% 5.0–9.1% 4.5–9.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.6% 4.6–7.0% 4.3–7.4% 4.1–7.8% 3.6–8.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 4.8% 3.9–6.1% 3.6–6.5% 3.4–6.8% 3.0–7.5%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.7% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–4.0% 1.6–4.3% 1.4–4.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 114 106–120 104–124 102–129 99–129
Partido Social Democrata 79 66 61–73 56–76 55–76 54–81
Bloco de Esquerda 19 17 12–21 11–23 11–23 10–25
Chega 1 11 8–14 8–14 8–15 6–20
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 9 6–14 6–14 5–16 5–18
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 8 4–11 4–11 4–12 3–13
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 3–5 2–6 1–6 1–6
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
LIVRE 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.8%  
97 0% 99.8%  
98 0.1% 99.7%  
99 0.4% 99.6%  
100 0.1% 99.3%  
101 0.9% 99.2%  
102 1.5% 98%  
103 1.2% 97%  
104 3% 96%  
105 1.4% 93%  
106 2% 91%  
107 4% 90%  
108 4% 86% Last Result
109 3% 81%  
110 10% 78%  
111 4% 68%  
112 12% 63%  
113 2% 52%  
114 6% 50% Median
115 3% 44%  
116 10% 41% Majority
117 2% 31%  
118 4% 29%  
119 0.6% 25%  
120 17% 25%  
121 0.2% 8%  
122 2% 8%  
123 0.6% 6%  
124 0.6% 6%  
125 0.2% 5%  
126 2% 5%  
127 0.3% 3%  
128 0.1% 3%  
129 3% 3%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.7%  
55 3% 99.3%  
56 2% 96%  
57 2% 95%  
58 0.1% 93%  
59 0.1% 93%  
60 0.1% 92%  
61 8% 92%  
62 0.7% 85%  
63 9% 84%  
64 9% 74%  
65 12% 66%  
66 14% 54% Median
67 5% 40%  
68 6% 35%  
69 7% 29%  
70 4% 21%  
71 1.1% 18%  
72 6% 17%  
73 1.3% 11%  
74 3% 10%  
75 0.4% 6%  
76 4% 6%  
77 0.3% 2%  
78 0.4% 2%  
79 0.1% 2% Last Result
80 0.6% 1.4%  
81 0.5% 0.9%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100%  
8 0% 99.6%  
9 0% 99.6%  
10 2% 99.6%  
11 8% 98%  
12 2% 90%  
13 1.0% 88%  
14 7% 87%  
15 8% 80%  
16 17% 72%  
17 6% 55% Median
18 22% 49%  
19 5% 27% Last Result
20 10% 22%  
21 4% 13%  
22 2% 9%  
23 6% 7%  
24 0.1% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.4%  
28 0% 0.3%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 0.9% 99.8%  
7 0.1% 99.0%  
8 12% 98.9%  
9 2% 87%  
10 22% 84%  
11 40% 62% Median
12 4% 22%  
13 5% 18%  
14 10% 13%  
15 0.3% 3%  
16 0.2% 2%  
17 0.4% 2%  
18 1.2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.8%  
20 0.3% 0.7%  
21 0.2% 0.4%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.8%  
6 6% 96%  
7 20% 89%  
8 9% 69%  
9 11% 60% Median
10 11% 49%  
11 5% 38%  
12 2% 33% Last Result
13 20% 31%  
14 7% 11%  
15 0.6% 4%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.4% 1.2%  
18 0.7% 0.8%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 1.2% 99.6%  
4 9% 98% Last Result
5 5% 90%  
6 15% 84%  
7 9% 69%  
8 32% 61% Median
9 6% 29%  
10 7% 23%  
11 12% 16%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.5% 1.0%  
14 0.2% 0.5%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 7% 97%  
3 53% 90% Median
4 27% 38%  
5 5% 11%  
6 5% 6%  
7 0.1% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Median
1 19% 20%  
2 2% 2%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100%  
1 51% 62% Last Result, Median
2 7% 11%  
3 4% 4%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 140 100% 133–147 132–150 128–151 122–152
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 131 99.1% 122–137 122–141 118–146 114–146
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 124 92% 117–133 114–133 112–134 106–136
Partido Socialista 108 114 41% 106–120 104–124 102–129 99–129
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 66 0% 61–74 56–76 55–76 54–81

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0.1% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.3% 99.8%  
122 0% 99.5%  
123 0% 99.5%  
124 0.2% 99.4%  
125 0.9% 99.2%  
126 0.2% 98%  
127 0.2% 98%  
128 0.4% 98%  
129 0.6% 97%  
130 0.3% 97%  
131 0.4% 97%  
132 5% 96%  
133 1.5% 91%  
134 0.5% 90%  
135 4% 89%  
136 4% 85%  
137 4% 81%  
138 6% 77%  
139 12% 71% Last Result
140 10% 59% Median
141 1.5% 49%  
142 0.1% 48%  
143 19% 47%  
144 11% 28%  
145 3% 18%  
146 3% 15%  
147 6% 13%  
148 0.8% 7%  
149 0.4% 6%  
150 2% 6%  
151 3% 4%  
152 0.4% 0.8%  
153 0.1% 0.4%  
154 0.2% 0.3%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0.1% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0.1% 99.7%  
114 0.4% 99.7%  
115 0.3% 99.3%  
116 0.1% 99.1% Majority
117 0.2% 99.0%  
118 2% 98.7%  
119 1.0% 97%  
120 0.6% 96%  
121 0.4% 95%  
122 5% 95%  
123 2% 90%  
124 2% 87%  
125 6% 85%  
126 2% 79%  
127 1.5% 77% Last Result
128 0.8% 75%  
129 3% 75%  
130 19% 72%  
131 13% 53% Median
132 7% 39%  
133 5% 32%  
134 2% 27%  
135 0.6% 26%  
136 12% 25%  
137 6% 13%  
138 0.7% 7%  
139 1.0% 7%  
140 0.2% 6%  
141 0.6% 5%  
142 0.1% 5%  
143 0.2% 5%  
144 2% 4%  
145 0% 3%  
146 3% 3%  
147 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0% 99.8%  
105 0% 99.8%  
106 0.4% 99.8%  
107 0.1% 99.4%  
108 0.4% 99.3%  
109 0.7% 99.0%  
110 0.1% 98%  
111 0.7% 98%  
112 0.1% 98%  
113 0.5% 97%  
114 4% 97%  
115 1.4% 93%  
116 0.6% 92% Majority
117 2% 91%  
118 5% 89%  
119 9% 84%  
120 5% 75% Last Result
121 4% 70%  
122 2% 66%  
123 9% 64% Median
124 11% 55%  
125 15% 44%  
126 2% 29%  
127 8% 27%  
128 2% 19%  
129 1.1% 17%  
130 1.0% 16%  
131 0.6% 15%  
132 1.5% 14%  
133 9% 13%  
134 3% 4%  
135 0.3% 1.1%  
136 0.3% 0.8%  
137 0% 0.5%  
138 0% 0.5%  
139 0% 0.4%  
140 0.3% 0.4%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.8%  
97 0% 99.8%  
98 0.1% 99.7%  
99 0.4% 99.6%  
100 0.1% 99.3%  
101 0.9% 99.2%  
102 1.5% 98%  
103 1.2% 97%  
104 3% 96%  
105 1.4% 93%  
106 2% 91%  
107 4% 90%  
108 4% 86% Last Result
109 3% 81%  
110 10% 78%  
111 4% 68%  
112 12% 63%  
113 2% 52%  
114 6% 50% Median
115 3% 44%  
116 10% 41% Majority
117 2% 31%  
118 4% 29%  
119 0.6% 25%  
120 17% 25%  
121 0.2% 8%  
122 2% 8%  
123 0.6% 6%  
124 0.6% 6%  
125 0.2% 5%  
126 2% 5%  
127 0.3% 3%  
128 0.1% 3%  
129 3% 3%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.7%  
55 3% 99.4%  
56 2% 96%  
57 2% 95%  
58 0.2% 93%  
59 0.1% 93%  
60 0.1% 92%  
61 8% 92%  
62 0.7% 85%  
63 9% 84%  
64 2% 75%  
65 18% 74%  
66 13% 55% Median
67 8% 42%  
68 5% 35%  
69 7% 30%  
70 4% 23%  
71 2% 18%  
72 5% 17%  
73 1.2% 12%  
74 1.1% 10%  
75 3% 9%  
76 4% 6%  
77 0.2% 2%  
78 0.5% 2%  
79 0.1% 2%  
80 0.6% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.9%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1% Last Result
85 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations