Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 6–11 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.5% 35.1–40.1% 34.4–40.8% 33.8–41.4% 32.6–42.7%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 24.8% 22.6–27.1% 22.0–27.7% 21.5–28.3% 20.5–29.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 11.0% 9.5–12.8% 9.1–13.3% 8.8–13.7% 8.1–14.6%
Chega 1.3% 7.8% 6.5–9.3% 6.2–9.8% 5.9–10.2% 5.4–10.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 4.4% 3.5–5.6% 3.2–6.0% 3.0–6.3% 2.6–6.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 4.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.8–5.9% 2.4–6.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 4.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.8–5.9% 2.4–6.5%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.4% 1.8–3.4% 1.6–3.7% 1.5–4.0% 1.2–4.5%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.3% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.1–1.2% 0.0–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 109 102–116 99–117 98–120 93–124
Partido Social Democrata 79 68 61–75 58–77 57–79 54–82
Bloco de Esquerda 19 23 19–27 18–28 17–30 16–33
Chega 1 13 11–18 11–19 10–20 8–23
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 6 4–8 4–10 3–11 2–14
CDS–Partido Popular 5 4 2–5 2–6 1–8 1–10
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 4 3–6 3–8 2–9 2–11
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 2–4 1–4 1–5 1–6
LIVRE 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.8%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.1% 99.6%  
94 0.3% 99.5%  
95 0.3% 99.2%  
96 0.3% 98.9%  
97 1.0% 98.5%  
98 2% 98%  
99 3% 96%  
100 2% 93%  
101 0.9% 91%  
102 8% 90%  
103 5% 83%  
104 5% 78%  
105 4% 73%  
106 4% 69%  
107 5% 65%  
108 7% 60% Last Result
109 11% 53% Median
110 12% 41%  
111 5% 29%  
112 4% 24%  
113 4% 19%  
114 2% 16%  
115 2% 14%  
116 6% 12% Majority
117 2% 6%  
118 0.4% 4%  
119 0.6% 4%  
120 0.5% 3%  
121 1.4% 2%  
122 0.4% 1.1%  
123 0.1% 0.7%  
124 0.2% 0.6%  
125 0.2% 0.4%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.3% 99.5%  
56 0.8% 99.2%  
57 1.0% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 1.4% 95%  
60 3% 93%  
61 3% 90%  
62 4% 87%  
63 3% 83%  
64 7% 80%  
65 12% 73%  
66 5% 61%  
67 5% 55%  
68 12% 50% Median
69 6% 39%  
70 8% 33%  
71 4% 25%  
72 4% 20%  
73 2% 17%  
74 0.8% 15%  
75 5% 14%  
76 2% 9%  
77 4% 7%  
78 0.3% 3%  
79 0.9% 3% Last Result
80 0.9% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 0.9% 99.6%  
17 2% 98.7%  
18 4% 97%  
19 8% 93% Last Result
20 6% 85%  
21 9% 78%  
22 17% 69%  
23 19% 51% Median
24 8% 32%  
25 9% 25%  
26 4% 16%  
27 7% 12%  
28 2% 5%  
29 0.7% 3%  
30 0.8% 3%  
31 0.7% 2%  
32 0.3% 1.1%  
33 0.3% 0.8%  
34 0.2% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.1% 99.9%  
9 0.9% 98.8%  
10 2% 98%  
11 31% 95%  
12 7% 64%  
13 18% 57% Median
14 17% 39%  
15 3% 22%  
16 2% 20%  
17 6% 17%  
18 2% 11%  
19 6% 9%  
20 2% 4%  
21 1.2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.9%  
23 0.4% 0.6%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.0% 100%  
3 3% 99.0%  
4 7% 96%  
5 22% 89%  
6 32% 67% Median
7 18% 36%  
8 9% 18%  
9 2% 8%  
10 4% 7%  
11 0.4% 3%  
12 1.1% 2% Last Result
13 0.3% 1.1%  
14 0.7% 0.7%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 20% 97%  
3 15% 77%  
4 15% 62% Median
5 41% 48% Last Result
6 2% 7%  
7 2% 5%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.9% 2%  
10 0.5% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 5% 100%  
3 13% 95%  
4 33% 82% Last Result, Median
5 8% 49%  
6 33% 41%  
7 1.2% 8%  
8 3% 7%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.5% 1.1%  
11 0.5% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 8% 99.9% Last Result
2 9% 92%  
3 67% 83% Median
4 11% 16%  
5 4% 5%  
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 4% 4% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 138 100% 130–144 128–146 126–148 122–152
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 132 99.6% 123–137 122–139 120–143 116–145
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 115 43% 107–121 105–124 103–126 99–131
Partido Socialista 108 109 12% 102–116 99–117 98–120 93–124
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 71 0% 64–79 63–82 61–82 58–87

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.8%  
121 0.2% 99.8%  
122 0.2% 99.6%  
123 0.2% 99.4%  
124 0.5% 99.2%  
125 0.4% 98.7%  
126 2% 98%  
127 2% 97%  
128 1.3% 95%  
129 3% 94%  
130 5% 91%  
131 8% 86%  
132 2% 78%  
133 3% 76%  
134 5% 73%  
135 3% 68%  
136 5% 65%  
137 7% 60%  
138 6% 54% Median
139 11% 48% Last Result
140 9% 37%  
141 6% 27%  
142 6% 21%  
143 4% 16%  
144 3% 12%  
145 4% 9%  
146 0.9% 5%  
147 1.0% 5%  
148 1.1% 3%  
149 1.2% 2%  
150 0.3% 1.2%  
151 0.2% 0.9%  
152 0.4% 0.7%  
153 0.1% 0.3%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.3% 99.6% Majority
117 0.5% 99.4%  
118 0.3% 98.8%  
119 0.4% 98.5%  
120 0.9% 98%  
121 1.1% 97%  
122 3% 96%  
123 5% 93%  
124 2% 88%  
125 3% 87%  
126 9% 83%  
127 6% 74% Last Result
128 1.1% 69%  
129 5% 68%  
130 4% 63%  
131 4% 58%  
132 12% 54% Median
133 9% 42%  
134 10% 33%  
135 2% 23%  
136 3% 20%  
137 9% 17%  
138 1.2% 8%  
139 2% 7%  
140 0.8% 5%  
141 0.9% 4%  
142 0.4% 3%  
143 2% 3%  
144 0.3% 1.0%  
145 0.2% 0.7%  
146 0.2% 0.5%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.7%  
100 0.2% 99.4%  
101 0.4% 99.2%  
102 0.2% 98.8%  
103 2% 98.6%  
104 1.4% 97%  
105 1.5% 95%  
106 2% 94%  
107 6% 92%  
108 3% 86%  
109 4% 83%  
110 4% 79%  
111 6% 76%  
112 5% 70%  
113 3% 65%  
114 5% 62%  
115 14% 58% Median
116 9% 43% Majority
117 6% 34%  
118 6% 28%  
119 5% 22%  
120 2% 17% Last Result
121 6% 15%  
122 2% 9%  
123 1.1% 7%  
124 2% 6%  
125 0.6% 4%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 1.1% 2%  
128 0.2% 1.2%  
129 0.2% 1.0%  
130 0.3% 0.8%  
131 0.3% 0.5%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.8%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.1% 99.6%  
94 0.3% 99.5%  
95 0.3% 99.2%  
96 0.3% 98.9%  
97 1.0% 98.5%  
98 2% 98%  
99 3% 96%  
100 2% 93%  
101 0.9% 91%  
102 8% 90%  
103 5% 83%  
104 5% 78%  
105 4% 73%  
106 4% 69%  
107 5% 65%  
108 7% 60% Last Result
109 11% 53% Median
110 12% 41%  
111 5% 29%  
112 4% 24%  
113 4% 19%  
114 2% 16%  
115 2% 14%  
116 6% 12% Majority
117 2% 6%  
118 0.4% 4%  
119 0.6% 4%  
120 0.5% 3%  
121 1.4% 2%  
122 0.4% 1.1%  
123 0.1% 0.7%  
124 0.2% 0.6%  
125 0.2% 0.4%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.7%  
59 0.5% 99.4%  
60 0.6% 98.9%  
61 1.3% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 2% 95%  
64 4% 94%  
65 2% 89%  
66 2% 87%  
67 10% 85%  
68 5% 74%  
69 5% 69%  
70 11% 64%  
71 5% 53%  
72 6% 49% Median
73 11% 43%  
74 5% 32%  
75 4% 27%  
76 4% 23%  
77 3% 19%  
78 5% 16%  
79 2% 10%  
80 1.2% 9%  
81 2% 8%  
82 4% 6%  
83 0.3% 2%  
84 0.4% 2% Last Result
85 0.6% 1.5%  
86 0.3% 0.9%  
87 0.4% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations