Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 9–16 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.1% 34.7–39.7% 34.0–40.4% 33.4–41.0% 32.3–42.2%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 24.1% 22.0–26.4% 21.4–27.1% 20.9–27.6% 19.9–28.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 7.7% 6.5–9.3% 6.2–9.7% 5.9–10.1% 5.3–10.9%
Chega 1.3% 7.2% 6.1–8.7% 5.7–9.2% 5.4–9.6% 4.9–10.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 5.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.0–7.0% 3.8–7.4% 3.4–8.1%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 4.8% 3.9–6.1% 3.6–6.5% 3.4–6.8% 3.0–7.5%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 4.0% 3.2–5.2% 2.9–5.6% 2.7–5.9% 2.4–6.5%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 3.4% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.8% 2.2–5.1% 1.9–5.7%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.8% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 1.0–3.1% 0.8–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 109 103–117 101–120 99–122 95–125
Partido Social Democrata 79 67 60–74 58–76 57–78 54–83
Bloco de Esquerda 19 15 11–18 11–19 9–21 7–23
Chega 1 11 10–15 9–17 8–19 7–22
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 9 5–11 5–12 4–12 4–14
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 7 5–10 5–13 4–14 3–15
CDS–Partido Popular 5 4 2–5 2–7 2–9 1–11
Iniciativa Liberal 1 4 3–6 3–6 3–6 2–10
LIVRE 1 1 1–3 1–3 0–3 0–4

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.3% 99.7%  
96 0.3% 99.4%  
97 0.4% 99.1%  
98 0.6% 98.7%  
99 1.3% 98%  
100 0.9% 97%  
101 1.5% 96%  
102 3% 94%  
103 3% 92%  
104 3% 89%  
105 6% 86%  
106 7% 80%  
107 8% 72%  
108 11% 64% Last Result
109 9% 53% Median
110 3% 44%  
111 9% 42%  
112 4% 33%  
113 4% 29%  
114 2% 25%  
115 7% 23%  
116 6% 16% Majority
117 3% 11%  
118 0.7% 8%  
119 2% 7%  
120 0.9% 5%  
121 2% 4%  
122 1.1% 3%  
123 0.6% 2%  
124 0.3% 1.0%  
125 0.2% 0.7%  
126 0.2% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.7%  
54 0.3% 99.5%  
55 0.5% 99.2%  
56 0.6% 98.7%  
57 3% 98%  
58 1.5% 95%  
59 2% 94%  
60 3% 92%  
61 1.3% 89%  
62 3% 87%  
63 3% 85%  
64 7% 82%  
65 5% 74%  
66 13% 69%  
67 10% 56% Median
68 4% 47%  
69 8% 43%  
70 7% 35%  
71 5% 28%  
72 9% 22%  
73 3% 14%  
74 4% 10%  
75 1.4% 7%  
76 1.3% 5%  
77 1.0% 4%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 0.6% 2% Last Result
80 0.3% 1.4%  
81 0.4% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.8%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.3% 100%  
8 1.2% 98.7%  
9 1.4% 98%  
10 0.6% 96%  
11 9% 96%  
12 6% 87%  
13 4% 80%  
14 24% 76%  
15 11% 52% Median
16 9% 42%  
17 17% 33%  
18 8% 16%  
19 4% 7% Last Result
20 0.9% 3%  
21 1.0% 3%  
22 0.7% 2%  
23 0.7% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 0.5% 99.8%  
8 3% 99.2%  
9 3% 96%  
10 11% 93%  
11 36% 83% Median
12 11% 46%  
13 11% 36%  
14 12% 25%  
15 6% 13%  
16 2% 7%  
17 0.9% 5%  
18 0.8% 4%  
19 2% 4%  
20 0.8% 2%  
21 0.7% 1.3%  
22 0.2% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.3%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 5% 99.7% Last Result
5 10% 95%  
6 14% 85%  
7 6% 71%  
8 13% 66%  
9 31% 53% Median
10 3% 22%  
11 9% 19%  
12 8% 10%  
13 0.8% 2%  
14 0.6% 0.9%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 1.1% 99.7%  
4 2% 98.6%  
5 10% 97%  
6 32% 87%  
7 16% 55% Median
8 11% 39%  
9 7% 28%  
10 12% 22%  
11 3% 9%  
12 0.9% 7% Last Result
13 2% 6%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.6% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 11% 98%  
3 27% 86%  
4 11% 59% Median
5 39% 48% Last Result
6 4% 10%  
7 0.9% 5%  
8 2% 5%  
9 1.3% 3%  
10 0.9% 1.4%  
11 0.2% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.3%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100% Last Result
2 0.8% 99.7%  
3 36% 99.0%  
4 20% 63% Median
5 28% 43%  
6 13% 15%  
7 0.2% 2%  
8 0.5% 1.4%  
9 0.4% 0.9%  
10 0.4% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 57% 97% Last Result, Median
2 11% 40%  
3 27% 29%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 132 99.8% 125–141 123–142 121–144 117–147
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 124 95% 118–133 115–135 113–136 109–140
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 117 60% 110–125 108–127 107–129 103–133
Partido Socialista 108 109 16% 103–117 101–120 99–122 95–125
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 71 0% 65–78 62–80 61–82 57–86

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.8% Majority
117 0.3% 99.6%  
118 0.5% 99.3%  
119 0.4% 98.8%  
120 0.4% 98%  
121 1.2% 98%  
122 1.3% 97%  
123 2% 96%  
124 2% 94%  
125 3% 92%  
126 6% 90%  
127 3% 83%  
128 5% 80%  
129 7% 75%  
130 8% 68%  
131 7% 60% Median
132 8% 53%  
133 13% 45%  
134 3% 32%  
135 3% 29%  
136 5% 26%  
137 2% 21%  
138 2% 19%  
139 3% 17% Last Result
140 3% 14%  
141 5% 11%  
142 2% 6%  
143 0.8% 4%  
144 0.9% 3%  
145 0.8% 2%  
146 0.4% 1.1%  
147 0.3% 0.7%  
148 0.1% 0.5%  
149 0.1% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.3% 99.5%  
111 0.4% 99.2%  
112 0.3% 98.8%  
113 1.5% 98%  
114 0.9% 97%  
115 1.2% 96%  
116 1.4% 95% Majority
117 2% 93%  
118 2% 91%  
119 6% 89%  
120 4% 83%  
121 8% 79%  
122 5% 71%  
123 9% 66%  
124 10% 58% Median
125 6% 48%  
126 14% 42%  
127 3% 28% Last Result
128 3% 25%  
129 4% 22%  
130 3% 18%  
131 2% 15%  
132 1.0% 13%  
133 5% 12%  
134 2% 7%  
135 1.3% 5%  
136 2% 4%  
137 0.6% 2%  
138 0.4% 1.5%  
139 0.5% 1.0%  
140 0.1% 0.6%  
141 0.2% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.1% 99.6%  
103 0.3% 99.5%  
104 0.6% 99.2%  
105 0.7% 98.7%  
106 0.5% 98%  
107 1.4% 98%  
108 1.5% 96%  
109 3% 95%  
110 2% 92%  
111 3% 90%  
112 6% 87%  
113 5% 81%  
114 9% 76%  
115 7% 67%  
116 7% 60% Median, Majority
117 8% 53%  
118 10% 45%  
119 3% 35%  
120 3% 32% Last Result
121 7% 29%  
122 6% 23%  
123 2% 17%  
124 5% 15%  
125 2% 10%  
126 2% 8%  
127 2% 6%  
128 1.4% 5%  
129 0.9% 3%  
130 0.7% 2%  
131 0.7% 2%  
132 0.2% 1.0%  
133 0.3% 0.8%  
134 0.2% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.3% 99.7%  
96 0.3% 99.4%  
97 0.4% 99.1%  
98 0.6% 98.7%  
99 1.3% 98%  
100 0.9% 97%  
101 1.5% 96%  
102 3% 94%  
103 3% 92%  
104 3% 89%  
105 6% 86%  
106 7% 80%  
107 8% 72%  
108 11% 64% Last Result
109 9% 53% Median
110 3% 44%  
111 9% 42%  
112 4% 33%  
113 4% 29%  
114 2% 25%  
115 7% 23%  
116 6% 16% Majority
117 3% 11%  
118 0.7% 8%  
119 2% 7%  
120 0.9% 5%  
121 2% 4%  
122 1.1% 3%  
123 0.6% 2%  
124 0.3% 1.0%  
125 0.2% 0.7%  
126 0.2% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 0.4% 99.4%  
59 0.4% 99.0%  
60 0.8% 98.6%  
61 2% 98%  
62 2% 96%  
63 1.0% 94%  
64 2% 93%  
65 3% 91%  
66 5% 88%  
67 5% 83%  
68 4% 78%  
69 6% 74%  
70 8% 68%  
71 10% 60% Median
72 8% 49%  
73 6% 41%  
74 5% 34%  
75 6% 30%  
76 4% 24%  
77 9% 20%  
78 2% 11%  
79 3% 9%  
80 2% 6%  
81 1.5% 4%  
82 0.4% 3%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.6% 2% Last Result
85 0.3% 1.2%  
86 0.5% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations