Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 14–18 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.0% 35.5–40.6% 34.8–41.3% 34.2–41.9% 33.0–43.2%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 23.5% 21.4–25.9% 20.8–26.5% 20.3–27.1% 19.4–28.2%
Chega 1.3% 7.6% 6.4–9.2% 6.1–9.6% 5.8–10.0% 5.2–10.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 7.3% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.3% 5.5–9.7% 5.0–10.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.5% 4.5–6.9% 4.2–7.2% 3.9–7.6% 3.5–8.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 4.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.3–6.1% 3.1–6.4% 2.7–7.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.5% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–5.0% 2.3–5.3% 2.0–5.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 3.2% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–4.9% 1.7–5.5%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 112 105–121 103–123 102–125 98–130
Partido Social Democrata 79 66 58–73 57–75 55–77 53–81
Chega 1 14 11–18 10–20 9–21 8–24
Bloco de Esquerda 19 14 11–18 8–19 7–20 7–22
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 6–14 6–14 5–15 5–18
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 4–9 4–10 4–12 3–13
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 4 2–6 2–8 2–9 1–10
CDS–Partido Popular 5 2 1–5 1–5 1–5 0–8
LIVRE 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.6%  
99 0.2% 99.4%  
100 0.3% 99.2%  
101 0.9% 98.9%  
102 2% 98%  
103 1.4% 96%  
104 4% 95%  
105 3% 91%  
106 3% 88%  
107 5% 85%  
108 7% 80% Last Result
109 6% 73%  
110 5% 67%  
111 7% 62%  
112 7% 55% Median
113 3% 48%  
114 4% 44%  
115 7% 40%  
116 3% 33% Majority
117 5% 29%  
118 9% 24%  
119 2% 15%  
120 2% 12%  
121 3% 10%  
122 2% 7%  
123 0.8% 5%  
124 1.2% 4%  
125 0.8% 3%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.4% 2%  
128 0.2% 2%  
129 0.8% 1.4%  
130 0.2% 0.5%  
131 0.2% 0.3%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.5%  
54 1.4% 99.1%  
55 0.7% 98%  
56 2% 97%  
57 3% 95%  
58 2% 92%  
59 4% 90%  
60 1.2% 85%  
61 2% 84%  
62 4% 82%  
63 10% 78%  
64 2% 68%  
65 4% 65%  
66 14% 61% Median
67 11% 47%  
68 4% 36%  
69 8% 32%  
70 4% 25%  
71 7% 21%  
72 2% 13%  
73 4% 11%  
74 0.6% 7%  
75 3% 7%  
76 1.3% 4%  
77 0.9% 3%  
78 0.5% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.4% Last Result
80 0.4% 0.9%  
81 0.1% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.1% 99.8%  
8 2% 99.7%  
9 3% 98%  
10 5% 95%  
11 19% 90%  
12 5% 71%  
13 12% 66%  
14 24% 54% Median
15 9% 30%  
16 4% 22%  
17 4% 18%  
18 5% 14%  
19 3% 9%  
20 3% 6%  
21 2% 4%  
22 0.3% 1.5%  
23 0.6% 1.2%  
24 0.3% 0.6%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 4% 100%  
8 1.3% 96%  
9 0.9% 95%  
10 1.5% 94%  
11 13% 93%  
12 12% 80%  
13 12% 68%  
14 18% 56% Median
15 5% 38%  
16 12% 33%  
17 6% 21%  
18 11% 16%  
19 3% 5% Last Result
20 1.0% 3%  
21 0.7% 2%  
22 0.5% 0.8%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.3% 99.9%  
5 4% 99.5%  
6 12% 95%  
7 12% 84%  
8 7% 72%  
9 10% 65%  
10 16% 55% Median
11 11% 39%  
12 3% 28% Last Result
13 9% 25%  
14 11% 15%  
15 3% 5%  
16 0.5% 2%  
17 0.6% 1.1%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 10% 98%  
5 21% 88%  
6 37% 67% Median
7 8% 30%  
8 4% 23%  
9 8% 18%  
10 6% 10%  
11 1.1% 4%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.4% 0.7%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.8% 100%  
2 25% 99.1%  
3 14% 74%  
4 34% 60% Last Result, Median
5 11% 27%  
6 9% 16%  
7 2% 7%  
8 2% 5%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.8%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.5% 100%  
1 13% 98.5%  
2 41% 85% Median
3 17% 45%  
4 6% 27%  
5 20% 21% Last Result
6 0.4% 1.3%  
7 0.3% 0.8%  
8 0.3% 0.6%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Median
1 38% 40% Last Result
2 1.0% 2%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 137 99.9% 129–145 126–147 125–149 121–152
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 127 98% 119–135 117–138 116–140 112–145
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 122 85% 114–130 113–133 111–135 107–138
Partido Socialista 108 112 33% 105–121 103–123 102–125 98–130
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 69 0% 61–75 59–78 58–80 55–85

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9% Majority
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.1% 99.7%  
121 0.3% 99.6%  
122 0.4% 99.3%  
123 0.2% 98.9%  
124 0.8% 98.7%  
125 0.9% 98%  
126 3% 97%  
127 1.2% 94%  
128 2% 93%  
129 4% 90%  
130 3% 87%  
131 6% 84%  
132 4% 78%  
133 3% 74%  
134 9% 71%  
135 6% 62%  
136 6% 56% Median
137 5% 51%  
138 7% 46%  
139 3% 38% Last Result
140 10% 35%  
141 6% 25%  
142 3% 19%  
143 2% 15%  
144 3% 13%  
145 3% 10%  
146 2% 8%  
147 1.4% 5%  
148 1.2% 4%  
149 0.9% 3%  
150 0.6% 2%  
151 0.4% 1.3%  
152 0.5% 0.8%  
153 0.2% 0.3%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.4% 99.6%  
113 0.3% 99.2%  
114 0.5% 98.9%  
115 0.9% 98%  
116 1.1% 98% Majority
117 2% 96%  
118 1.1% 94%  
119 4% 93%  
120 5% 89%  
121 8% 83%  
122 3% 76%  
123 3% 72%  
124 6% 69%  
125 7% 63%  
126 5% 56% Median
127 6% 51% Last Result
128 8% 45%  
129 5% 37%  
130 9% 32%  
131 3% 23%  
132 3% 20%  
133 3% 17%  
134 3% 14%  
135 3% 11%  
136 2% 8%  
137 1.2% 7%  
138 0.8% 5%  
139 1.5% 5%  
140 1.0% 3%  
141 0.3% 2%  
142 0.6% 2%  
143 0.6% 1.3%  
144 0.2% 0.7%  
145 0.2% 0.6%  
146 0.3% 0.4%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.3% 99.6%  
108 0.3% 99.3%  
109 0.5% 99.0%  
110 0.7% 98.5%  
111 0.9% 98%  
112 2% 97%  
113 2% 95%  
114 3% 93%  
115 5% 90%  
116 3% 85% Majority
117 3% 82%  
118 5% 79%  
119 5% 74%  
120 4% 69% Last Result
121 8% 65%  
122 10% 58% Median
123 6% 48%  
124 6% 42%  
125 3% 36%  
126 5% 33%  
127 3% 28%  
128 7% 25%  
129 5% 18%  
130 4% 12%  
131 2% 9%  
132 1.0% 7%  
133 2% 6%  
134 0.8% 4%  
135 1.3% 3%  
136 0.7% 2%  
137 0.5% 1.2%  
138 0.2% 0.6%  
139 0.2% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.6%  
99 0.2% 99.4%  
100 0.3% 99.2%  
101 0.9% 98.9%  
102 2% 98%  
103 1.4% 96%  
104 4% 95%  
105 3% 91%  
106 3% 88%  
107 5% 85%  
108 7% 80% Last Result
109 6% 73%  
110 5% 67%  
111 7% 62%  
112 7% 55% Median
113 3% 48%  
114 4% 44%  
115 7% 40%  
116 3% 33% Majority
117 5% 29%  
118 9% 24%  
119 2% 15%  
120 2% 12%  
121 3% 10%  
122 2% 7%  
123 0.8% 5%  
124 1.2% 4%  
125 0.8% 3%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.4% 2%  
128 0.2% 2%  
129 0.8% 1.4%  
130 0.2% 0.5%  
131 0.2% 0.3%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.6%  
56 0.9% 99.3%  
57 0.8% 98%  
58 0.9% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 2% 92%  
62 2% 90%  
63 3% 87%  
64 5% 85%  
65 8% 79%  
66 3% 71%  
67 6% 68%  
68 9% 63% Median
69 9% 53%  
70 7% 44%  
71 4% 37%  
72 7% 33%  
73 5% 26%  
74 6% 21%  
75 5% 14%  
76 1.3% 10%  
77 3% 8%  
78 2% 6%  
79 1.2% 4%  
80 0.5% 3%  
81 1.0% 2%  
82 0.1% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
85 0.3% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations