Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias, 19–22 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.5% 36.4–40.8% 35.8–41.4% 35.3–41.9% 34.2–43.0%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 25.4% 23.5–27.4% 23.0–28.0% 22.5–28.5% 21.6–29.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.5% 7.4–9.9% 7.0–10.3% 6.8–10.6% 6.2–11.3%
Chega 1.3% 7.8% 6.7–9.1% 6.4–9.5% 6.1–9.8% 5.6–10.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.7% 4.7–6.8% 4.5–7.2% 4.3–7.5% 3.9–8.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 4.7% 3.9–5.8% 3.6–6.1% 3.4–6.4% 3.1–6.9%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 3.4% 2.7–4.4% 2.6–4.7% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.5%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.1–1.6%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.0–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 113 105–118 104–119 102–121 100–123
Partido Social Democrata 79 68 63–76 62–77 59–79 57–81
Bloco de Esquerda 19 16 13–19 12–20 11–21 11–23
Chega 1 14 11–16 11–18 9–18 8–22
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 9 7–13 6–14 6–14 5–16
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 6 4–9 4–10 3–11 3–11
Iniciativa Liberal 1 4 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–8
LIVRE 1 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 0.5% 99.6%  
101 0.9% 99.1%  
102 1.3% 98%  
103 1.3% 97%  
104 5% 96%  
105 6% 91%  
106 4% 85%  
107 7% 81%  
108 4% 75% Last Result
109 7% 71%  
110 4% 64%  
111 2% 60%  
112 6% 59%  
113 4% 52% Median
114 9% 48%  
115 9% 39%  
116 15% 30% Majority
117 3% 15%  
118 5% 12%  
119 4% 7%  
120 0.5% 3%  
121 1.3% 3%  
122 0.6% 1.3%  
123 0.3% 0.7%  
124 0.1% 0.4%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 1.0% 99.8%  
58 1.0% 98.8%  
59 0.5% 98%  
60 0.5% 97%  
61 0.6% 97%  
62 5% 96%  
63 4% 92%  
64 2% 87%  
65 4% 85%  
66 15% 81%  
67 10% 66%  
68 10% 57% Median
69 11% 46%  
70 10% 36%  
71 2% 26%  
72 3% 24%  
73 4% 21%  
74 3% 17%  
75 4% 15%  
76 4% 10%  
77 2% 6%  
78 2% 4%  
79 2% 3% Last Result
80 0.7% 1.2%  
81 0.1% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.1% 99.8%  
11 4% 99.7%  
12 2% 96%  
13 4% 94%  
14 17% 90%  
15 10% 72%  
16 22% 62% Median
17 4% 40%  
18 23% 37%  
19 6% 14% Last Result
20 4% 8%  
21 3% 5%  
22 0.8% 1.5%  
23 0.3% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.3%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.9% 100%  
9 3% 99.0%  
10 0.9% 96%  
11 26% 96%  
12 4% 70%  
13 15% 66%  
14 36% 51% Median
15 4% 15%  
16 1.3% 11%  
17 3% 10%  
18 4% 6%  
19 0.9% 2%  
20 0.2% 1.2%  
21 0.4% 1.0%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 1.3% 99.9%  
6 6% 98.6%  
7 28% 93%  
8 13% 65%  
9 12% 52% Median
10 21% 40%  
11 2% 19%  
12 5% 17% Last Result
13 5% 12%  
14 6% 7%  
15 0.5% 1.2%  
16 0.6% 0.7%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 3% 99.7%  
4 12% 97% Last Result
5 8% 85%  
6 41% 77% Median
7 7% 36%  
8 11% 29%  
9 10% 18%  
10 4% 7%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.3% 100%  
3 25% 99.7%  
4 34% 75% Median
5 23% 41%  
6 17% 18%  
7 0.7% 1.2%  
8 0.3% 0.5%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 8% 8% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 137 100% 130–143 129–145 127–147 124–150
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 128 99.4% 121–134 120–136 118–137 115–140
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 123 80% 114–127 112–129 111–130 108–133
Partido Socialista 108 113 30% 105–118 104–119 102–121 100–123
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 68 0% 63–76 62–77 59–79 57–81

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.2% 99.8%  
124 0.3% 99.7%  
125 0.5% 99.4%  
126 0.9% 98.9%  
127 1.1% 98%  
128 1.0% 97%  
129 3% 96%  
130 4% 93%  
131 2% 89%  
132 4% 87%  
133 3% 83%  
134 6% 79%  
135 4% 73%  
136 5% 70%  
137 21% 64%  
138 5% 43% Median
139 14% 38% Last Result
140 2% 23%  
141 3% 21%  
142 4% 19%  
143 7% 15%  
144 2% 8%  
145 1.4% 6%  
146 1.3% 4%  
147 1.0% 3%  
148 0.9% 2%  
149 0.5% 1.2%  
150 0.3% 0.7%  
151 0.2% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.3% 99.7%  
116 0.8% 99.4% Majority
117 0.5% 98.6%  
118 1.0% 98%  
119 1.1% 97%  
120 5% 96%  
121 2% 91%  
122 5% 89%  
123 3% 85%  
124 4% 81%  
125 4% 77%  
126 4% 74%  
127 10% 69% Last Result
128 12% 59%  
129 5% 47% Median
130 14% 43%  
131 10% 29%  
132 4% 20%  
133 2% 15%  
134 4% 13%  
135 2% 9%  
136 4% 7%  
137 1.3% 3%  
138 0.5% 2%  
139 0.5% 2%  
140 0.6% 1.0%  
141 0.1% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.3% 99.7%  
109 0.6% 99.4%  
110 1.0% 98.8%  
111 1.0% 98%  
112 2% 97%  
113 2% 95%  
114 8% 92%  
115 4% 84%  
116 2% 80% Majority
117 3% 78%  
118 6% 75%  
119 7% 70%  
120 3% 63% Last Result
121 3% 60%  
122 5% 56% Median
123 28% 52%  
124 3% 23%  
125 4% 20%  
126 4% 16%  
127 2% 11%  
128 3% 9%  
129 2% 6%  
130 2% 4%  
131 0.5% 2%  
132 0.7% 1.3%  
133 0.3% 0.6%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 0.5% 99.6%  
101 0.9% 99.1%  
102 1.3% 98%  
103 1.3% 97%  
104 5% 96%  
105 6% 91%  
106 4% 85%  
107 7% 81%  
108 4% 75% Last Result
109 7% 71%  
110 4% 64%  
111 2% 60%  
112 6% 59%  
113 4% 52% Median
114 9% 48%  
115 9% 39%  
116 15% 30% Majority
117 3% 15%  
118 5% 12%  
119 4% 7%  
120 0.5% 3%  
121 1.3% 3%  
122 0.6% 1.3%  
123 0.3% 0.7%  
124 0.1% 0.4%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 1.0% 99.8%  
58 1.0% 98.8%  
59 0.5% 98%  
60 0.5% 97%  
61 0.6% 97%  
62 5% 96%  
63 4% 92%  
64 2% 87%  
65 4% 85%  
66 15% 81%  
67 10% 66%  
68 10% 57% Median
69 11% 46%  
70 10% 36%  
71 2% 26%  
72 3% 24%  
73 4% 21%  
74 3% 17%  
75 4% 15%  
76 4% 10%  
77 2% 6%  
78 2% 4%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.7% 1.2%  
81 0.1% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations