Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Observador and TVI, 22 December 2020–3 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 40.9% 38.4–43.4% 37.7–44.1% 37.1–44.7% 35.9–46.0%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 26.2% 24.1–28.6% 23.5–29.2% 22.9–29.8% 21.9–31.0%
Chega 1.3% 8.4% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.5% 6.5–10.9% 5.9–11.7%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 7.3% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.3% 5.5–9.6% 5.0–10.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 4.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.0–5.7% 2.8–6.0% 2.5–6.6%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.9% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.2% 1.8–4.5% 1.5–5.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 1.7% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.9% 1.0–3.1% 0.8–3.6%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.4% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.8–2.7% 0.6–3.2%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 119 110–129 108–130 107–131 104–135
Partido Social Democrata 79 72 64–79 62–81 61–82 56–87
Chega 1 14 11–20 11–21 11–22 9–26
Bloco de Esquerda 19 13 10–17 9–19 7–19 7–21
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 5 4–7 3–10 3–10 2–12
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 3–6 2–6 1–6 1–7
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
LIVRE 1 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.1% 99.7%  
104 0.2% 99.6%  
105 0.6% 99.4%  
106 0.9% 98.8%  
107 2% 98%  
108 2% 96% Last Result
109 2% 94%  
110 5% 92%  
111 3% 87%  
112 3% 83%  
113 6% 80%  
114 3% 74%  
115 5% 71%  
116 5% 66% Majority
117 8% 62%  
118 3% 54%  
119 6% 51% Median
120 7% 45%  
121 5% 38%  
122 4% 32%  
123 3% 29%  
124 2% 26%  
125 6% 24%  
126 3% 18%  
127 3% 15%  
128 1.2% 12%  
129 6% 11%  
130 0.6% 5%  
131 2% 4%  
132 0.3% 2%  
133 0.6% 2%  
134 0.7% 1.2%  
135 0.4% 0.5%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.8% 99.6%  
57 0.1% 98.8%  
58 0.3% 98.7%  
59 0.3% 98%  
60 0.4% 98%  
61 2% 98%  
62 2% 96%  
63 4% 95%  
64 10% 91%  
65 3% 81%  
66 6% 78%  
67 2% 71%  
68 3% 69%  
69 5% 66%  
70 4% 61%  
71 6% 57%  
72 9% 50% Median
73 6% 41%  
74 6% 35%  
75 5% 30%  
76 4% 25%  
77 2% 21%  
78 4% 19%  
79 6% 15% Last Result
80 3% 9%  
81 2% 6%  
82 0.7% 3%  
83 0.4% 2%  
84 0.6% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.4%  
86 0.1% 0.9%  
87 0.4% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 0.3% 99.7%  
10 0.7% 99.4%  
11 12% 98.7%  
12 6% 86%  
13 11% 80%  
14 19% 68% Median
15 6% 49%  
16 6% 43%  
17 8% 37%  
18 12% 29%  
19 3% 18%  
20 6% 15%  
21 5% 10%  
22 3% 5%  
23 0.8% 2%  
24 0.4% 2%  
25 0.6% 1.2%  
26 0.3% 0.6%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100%  
7 3% 99.9%  
8 2% 97%  
9 4% 95%  
10 11% 91%  
11 14% 80%  
12 10% 66%  
13 7% 55% Median
14 4% 49%  
15 15% 44%  
16 17% 30%  
17 3% 13%  
18 4% 10%  
19 4% 6% Last Result
20 1.2% 2%  
21 0.7% 1.1%  
22 0.3% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 4% 98%  
4 14% 93%  
5 31% 79% Median
6 13% 48%  
7 26% 35%  
8 2% 10%  
9 2% 8%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.8% 2%  
12 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 2% 97%  
3 48% 94% Median
4 23% 46%  
5 13% 23%  
6 10% 10%  
7 0.4% 0.6%  
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 41% 83% Median
2 34% 42%  
3 6% 9%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Median
1 29% 33%  
2 4% 4%  
3 0.3% 0.4%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 2% 2% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 138 100% 129–148 127–148 125–151 121–154
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 132 99.4% 123–141 121–143 120–146 115–148
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 124 88% 115–136 114–136 113–137 110–140
Partido Socialista 108 119 66% 110–129 108–130 107–131 104–135
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 72 0% 64–80 63–81 61–83 56–88

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0.2% 99.9%  
121 0.2% 99.7%  
122 0.3% 99.5%  
123 0.3% 99.2%  
124 0.6% 98.9%  
125 0.8% 98%  
126 2% 97%  
127 2% 95%  
128 2% 94%  
129 2% 92%  
130 3% 90%  
131 3% 87%  
132 6% 84%  
133 4% 78%  
134 5% 74%  
135 7% 70%  
136 6% 63%  
137 5% 57% Median
138 5% 52%  
139 5% 46% Last Result
140 6% 41%  
141 6% 35%  
142 8% 29%  
143 2% 21%  
144 2% 18%  
145 2% 16%  
146 1.0% 14%  
147 1.2% 13%  
148 7% 12%  
149 0.7% 5%  
150 0.7% 4%  
151 2% 3%  
152 0.3% 2%  
153 0.6% 1.2%  
154 0.2% 0.6%  
155 0.3% 0.4%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0.1% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.8%  
115 0.4% 99.8%  
116 0.1% 99.4% Majority
117 0.1% 99.3%  
118 0.4% 99.2%  
119 0.9% 98.8%  
120 1.2% 98%  
121 2% 97%  
122 2% 94%  
123 3% 93%  
124 2% 90%  
125 2% 88%  
126 4% 86%  
127 5% 82% Last Result
128 7% 77%  
129 3% 70%  
130 6% 67%  
131 7% 61%  
132 5% 53% Median
133 7% 48%  
134 6% 41%  
135 10% 36%  
136 4% 25%  
137 3% 21%  
138 3% 18%  
139 2% 16%  
140 0.3% 14%  
141 6% 13%  
142 1.3% 7%  
143 2% 6%  
144 0.7% 4%  
145 0.3% 3%  
146 1.5% 3%  
147 0.4% 1.4%  
148 0.5% 1.0%  
149 0.1% 0.5%  
150 0.3% 0.4%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.2% 99.6%  
111 0.5% 99.3%  
112 1.0% 98.8%  
113 2% 98%  
114 2% 95%  
115 5% 93%  
116 4% 88% Majority
117 6% 84%  
118 2% 78%  
119 3% 76%  
120 2% 73% Last Result
121 3% 71%  
122 4% 68%  
123 7% 64%  
124 8% 57% Median
125 10% 49%  
126 5% 39%  
127 3% 34%  
128 2% 31%  
129 3% 29%  
130 2% 26%  
131 2% 24%  
132 8% 22%  
133 1.3% 14%  
134 1.3% 13%  
135 2% 12%  
136 7% 10%  
137 0.5% 3%  
138 1.1% 2%  
139 0.6% 1.2%  
140 0.3% 0.5%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.1% 99.7%  
104 0.2% 99.6%  
105 0.6% 99.4%  
106 0.9% 98.8%  
107 2% 98%  
108 2% 96% Last Result
109 2% 94%  
110 5% 92%  
111 3% 87%  
112 3% 83%  
113 6% 80%  
114 3% 74%  
115 5% 71%  
116 5% 66% Majority
117 8% 62%  
118 3% 54%  
119 6% 51% Median
120 7% 45%  
121 5% 38%  
122 4% 32%  
123 3% 29%  
124 2% 26%  
125 6% 24%  
126 3% 18%  
127 3% 15%  
128 1.2% 12%  
129 6% 11%  
130 0.6% 5%  
131 2% 4%  
132 0.3% 2%  
133 0.6% 2%  
134 0.7% 1.2%  
135 0.4% 0.5%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.8% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.0%  
58 0.2% 98.7%  
59 0.2% 98%  
60 0.5% 98%  
61 1.1% 98%  
62 1.4% 97%  
63 3% 95%  
64 11% 92%  
65 3% 81%  
66 6% 78%  
67 3% 72%  
68 1.3% 70%  
69 5% 68%  
70 5% 63%  
71 4% 59%  
72 8% 54% Median
73 8% 46%  
74 6% 38%  
75 4% 32%  
76 5% 28%  
77 3% 23%  
78 2% 20%  
79 7% 18%  
80 5% 11%  
81 3% 6%  
82 0.9% 3%  
83 0.4% 3%  
84 0.6% 2% Last Result
85 0.6% 2%  
86 0.1% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.8%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations