Opinion Poll by Intercampus, 4–7 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.0% 35.5–40.6% 34.8–41.3% 34.2–41.9% 33.0–43.2%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 24.0% 21.9–26.4% 21.3–27.1% 20.8–27.6% 19.8–28.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 9.1% 7.8–10.8% 7.4–11.3% 7.1–11.7% 6.5–12.5%
Chega 1.3% 9.1% 7.8–10.8% 7.4–11.3% 7.1–11.7% 6.5–12.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.6% 4.6–7.0% 4.3–7.4% 4.1–7.8% 3.6–8.5%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 3.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.7–5.4% 2.6–5.7% 2.2–6.3%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.2% 2.4–5.5% 2.1–6.1%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.3% 1.7–3.3% 1.5–3.6% 1.4–3.9% 1.1–4.4%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.2% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 110 103–117 101–120 97–122 94–125
Partido Social Democrata 79 65 58–72 56–75 55–76 53–79
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 14–22 13–23 12–25 11–28
Chega 1 16 13–23 11–24 11–25 11–27
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 6–14 5–14 5–15 4–16
Iniciativa Liberal 1 5 3–6 3–7 3–9 3–11
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 4 2–6 2–7 2–8 1–9
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–3 0–4 0–5
LIVRE 1 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.6%  
94 0.4% 99.5%  
95 0.2% 99.1%  
96 0.3% 98.9%  
97 1.1% 98.6%  
98 0.6% 97%  
99 0.3% 97%  
100 0.8% 97%  
101 2% 96%  
102 2% 93%  
103 3% 91%  
104 5% 88%  
105 5% 83%  
106 8% 78%  
107 5% 70%  
108 3% 65% Last Result
109 10% 61%  
110 8% 51% Median
111 11% 43%  
112 7% 32%  
113 3% 25%  
114 7% 22%  
115 2% 15%  
116 1.2% 13% Majority
117 3% 12%  
118 1.0% 8%  
119 2% 7%  
120 2% 6%  
121 1.5% 4%  
122 1.2% 3%  
123 0.2% 1.4%  
124 0.5% 1.2%  
125 0.2% 0.7%  
126 0.1% 0.4%  
127 0.1% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.6%  
54 0.8% 99.2%  
55 1.4% 98%  
56 3% 97%  
57 4% 94%  
58 5% 91%  
59 5% 86%  
60 2% 80%  
61 2% 78%  
62 6% 76%  
63 5% 70%  
64 10% 65%  
65 9% 55% Median
66 13% 46%  
67 8% 33%  
68 4% 25%  
69 5% 21%  
70 4% 16%  
71 2% 12%  
72 2% 10%  
73 1.1% 9%  
74 2% 8%  
75 2% 6%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.7% 1.5%  
79 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.2% 99.8%  
11 0.9% 99.6%  
12 2% 98.7%  
13 2% 96%  
14 7% 94%  
15 8% 87%  
16 8% 79%  
17 4% 71%  
18 25% 67% Median
19 10% 41% Last Result
20 3% 31%  
21 9% 28%  
22 13% 19%  
23 3% 6%  
24 0.7% 3%  
25 0.4% 3%  
26 0.5% 2%  
27 1.0% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.6%  
29 0.2% 0.4%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.2% 99.8%  
11 6% 99.6%  
12 2% 93%  
13 4% 91%  
14 30% 87%  
15 3% 57%  
16 10% 54% Median
17 9% 44%  
18 7% 35%  
19 4% 28%  
20 5% 24%  
21 5% 19%  
22 4% 14%  
23 4% 10%  
24 3% 6%  
25 1.5% 3%  
26 1.0% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.7%  
28 0.2% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.7% 99.8%  
5 5% 99.1%  
6 12% 94%  
7 11% 82%  
8 6% 71%  
9 4% 65%  
10 17% 62% Median
11 4% 45%  
12 5% 41% Last Result
13 12% 36%  
14 20% 23%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.6% 1.1%  
17 0.2% 0.4%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.1% 100%  
3 15% 99.8%  
4 26% 84%  
5 27% 59% Median
6 27% 32%  
7 1.1% 5%  
8 1.2% 4%  
9 0.6% 3%  
10 1.3% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.9%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 12% 99.3%  
3 19% 87%  
4 37% 68% Last Result, Median
5 15% 31%  
6 10% 16%  
7 1.3% 6%  
8 3% 5%  
9 1.1% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.4%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 52% 84% Median
2 23% 32%  
3 5% 8%  
4 2% 3%  
5 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 2% 2% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 138 100% 131–146 127–147 126–150 122–153
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 128 98% 121–135 118–138 117–140 112–143
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 120 78% 112–127 110–129 107–132 104–135
Partido Socialista 108 110 13% 103–117 101–120 97–122 94–125
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 66 0% 59–73 57–76 56–78 54–81

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.1% 99.7%  
122 0.3% 99.6%  
123 0.4% 99.3%  
124 0.9% 99.0%  
125 0.6% 98%  
126 0.8% 98%  
127 2% 97%  
128 2% 95%  
129 1.2% 93%  
130 1.4% 91%  
131 4% 90%  
132 3% 86%  
133 7% 84%  
134 6% 77%  
135 4% 71%  
136 4% 67%  
137 3% 62%  
138 11% 59% Median
139 7% 47% Last Result
140 3% 41%  
141 7% 37%  
142 6% 30%  
143 4% 24%  
144 6% 20%  
145 4% 14%  
146 3% 10%  
147 3% 8%  
148 0.7% 5%  
149 0.8% 4%  
150 2% 3%  
151 0.8% 2%  
152 0.3% 0.8%  
153 0.3% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.4% 99.6%  
113 0.1% 99.2%  
114 0.3% 99.0%  
115 0.3% 98.8%  
116 0.7% 98% Majority
117 0.7% 98%  
118 3% 97%  
119 2% 95%  
120 2% 93%  
121 3% 91%  
122 3% 88%  
123 4% 85%  
124 11% 82%  
125 7% 71%  
126 4% 64%  
127 8% 60% Last Result
128 8% 51% Median
129 6% 43%  
130 6% 37%  
131 5% 31%  
132 8% 27%  
133 2% 19%  
134 5% 17%  
135 2% 11%  
136 3% 9%  
137 0.7% 6%  
138 1.4% 6%  
139 0.9% 4%  
140 2% 3%  
141 0.4% 2%  
142 0.5% 2%  
143 0.7% 1.1%  
144 0.1% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.3% 99.5%  
105 0.3% 99.2%  
106 0.8% 98.9%  
107 0.8% 98%  
108 0.7% 97%  
109 0.7% 97%  
110 2% 96%  
111 3% 94%  
112 4% 91%  
113 3% 87%  
114 2% 84%  
115 4% 82%  
116 5% 78% Majority
117 9% 72%  
118 3% 63%  
119 5% 60%  
120 9% 56% Last Result, Median
121 4% 46%  
122 6% 42%  
123 9% 36%  
124 7% 27%  
125 5% 20%  
126 1.5% 15%  
127 5% 13%  
128 2% 9%  
129 2% 7%  
130 1.0% 4%  
131 0.6% 3%  
132 1.1% 3%  
133 0.7% 2%  
134 0.4% 1.0%  
135 0.2% 0.6%  
136 0.2% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.6%  
94 0.4% 99.5%  
95 0.2% 99.1%  
96 0.3% 98.9%  
97 1.1% 98.6%  
98 0.6% 97%  
99 0.3% 97%  
100 0.8% 97%  
101 2% 96%  
102 2% 93%  
103 3% 91%  
104 5% 88%  
105 5% 83%  
106 8% 78%  
107 5% 70%  
108 3% 65% Last Result
109 10% 61%  
110 8% 51% Median
111 11% 43%  
112 7% 32%  
113 3% 25%  
114 7% 22%  
115 2% 15%  
116 1.2% 13% Majority
117 3% 12%  
118 1.0% 8%  
119 2% 7%  
120 2% 6%  
121 1.5% 4%  
122 1.2% 3%  
123 0.2% 1.4%  
124 0.5% 1.2%  
125 0.2% 0.7%  
126 0.1% 0.4%  
127 0.1% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.3% 99.6%  
55 1.3% 99.3%  
56 0.6% 98%  
57 3% 97%  
58 3% 94%  
59 5% 92%  
60 2% 86%  
61 5% 84%  
62 4% 80%  
63 4% 76%  
64 6% 72%  
65 9% 66%  
66 11% 57% Median
67 7% 46%  
68 12% 39%  
69 5% 28%  
70 6% 23%  
71 3% 17%  
72 3% 14%  
73 1.2% 11%  
74 2% 10%  
75 2% 8%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.1% 3%  
79 0.5% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.0%  
81 0.1% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations