Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias, 9–15 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 39.8% 37.4–42.4% 36.7–43.1% 36.1–43.7% 34.9–44.9%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 26.6% 24.4–29.0% 23.8–29.6% 23.3–30.2% 22.3–31.3%
Chega 1.3% 7.6% 6.4–9.1% 6.0–9.5% 5.7–9.9% 5.2–10.7%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 7.2% 6.1–8.7% 5.7–9.2% 5.5–9.5% 5.0–10.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.0% 4.1–6.3% 3.8–6.7% 3.6–7.0% 3.2–7.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.5% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.9% 2.3–5.2% 2.0–5.8%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 3.5% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.9% 2.3–5.2% 2.0–5.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8% 0.2–2.2%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.6% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6% 0.2–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 115 107–121 106–124 104–126 100–130
Partido Social Democrata 79 73 67–80 63–81 61–82 58–88
Chega 1 13 10–16 9–18 8–19 8–22
Bloco de Esquerda 19 14 10–18 7–18 7–18 7–21
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 7 5–10 5–12 5–13 4–15
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 4 2–6 2–6 2–8 1–9
Iniciativa Liberal 1 4 3–6 3–6 3–6 2–9
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0 0 0 0–1
LIVRE 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.3% 99.7%  
101 0.7% 99.5%  
102 0.4% 98.8%  
103 0.4% 98%  
104 1.0% 98%  
105 1.3% 97%  
106 3% 96%  
107 7% 93%  
108 4% 86% Last Result
109 6% 82%  
110 3% 76%  
111 5% 73%  
112 6% 68%  
113 5% 62%  
114 6% 58%  
115 8% 52% Median
116 6% 44% Majority
117 13% 38%  
118 10% 26%  
119 4% 16%  
120 1.2% 12%  
121 2% 11%  
122 2% 9%  
123 2% 7%  
124 2% 5%  
125 0.6% 4%  
126 0.7% 3%  
127 0.6% 2%  
128 0.4% 2%  
129 0.4% 1.2%  
130 0.5% 0.8%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 0.6% 99.4%  
60 0.7% 98.8%  
61 1.3% 98%  
62 1.1% 97%  
63 2% 96%  
64 1.4% 94%  
65 0.9% 92%  
66 1.3% 91%  
67 2% 90%  
68 4% 88%  
69 6% 84%  
70 9% 78%  
71 10% 69%  
72 4% 60%  
73 8% 56% Median
74 5% 47%  
75 4% 42%  
76 6% 38%  
77 11% 32%  
78 5% 21%  
79 2% 16% Last Result
80 4% 13%  
81 6% 10%  
82 0.8% 3%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.2% 2%  
85 0.2% 2%  
86 0.2% 1.4%  
87 0.2% 1.2%  
88 0.8% 1.0%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.2% 99.9%  
8 3% 99.7%  
9 5% 97%  
10 2% 92%  
11 29% 90%  
12 8% 61%  
13 12% 53% Median
14 20% 40%  
15 3% 20%  
16 9% 17%  
17 2% 8%  
18 2% 6%  
19 2% 4%  
20 0.8% 2%  
21 0.7% 1.4%  
22 0.3% 0.7%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 6% 100%  
8 1.3% 94%  
9 1.3% 93%  
10 3% 92%  
11 26% 89%  
12 8% 63%  
13 5% 55%  
14 15% 51% Median
15 13% 35%  
16 10% 22%  
17 2% 12%  
18 8% 10%  
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0.4% 0.9%  
21 0.4% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.3% 99.9%  
4 2% 99.6%  
5 8% 98%  
6 19% 90%  
7 30% 71% Median
8 11% 41%  
9 9% 30%  
10 12% 21%  
11 2% 9%  
12 3% 7% Last Result
13 2% 4%  
14 1.4% 2%  
15 0.6% 0.9%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 11% 99.3%  
3 29% 88%  
4 38% 59% Last Result, Median
5 7% 21%  
6 10% 14%  
7 0.6% 4%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.8% 1.2%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 0.7% 99.9%  
3 24% 99.2%  
4 26% 75% Median
5 20% 49%  
6 26% 28%  
7 1.0% 2%  
8 0.4% 1.3%  
9 0.4% 0.8%  
10 0.2% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Median
1 19% 20% Last Result
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 136 100% 127–143 126–145 125–148 120–152
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 128 98% 120–135 120–138 117–140 113–145
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 123 85% 114–128 113–132 111–134 108–138
Partido Socialista 108 115 44% 107–121 106–124 104–126 100–130
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 73 0% 67–80 63–81 61–82 58–88

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.8%  
120 0.3% 99.8%  
121 0.2% 99.5%  
122 0.4% 99.3%  
123 0.7% 98.9%  
124 0.5% 98%  
125 0.7% 98%  
126 4% 97%  
127 3% 93%  
128 2% 90%  
129 5% 88%  
130 4% 82%  
131 6% 79%  
132 6% 73%  
133 4% 66%  
134 4% 63%  
135 8% 59%  
136 8% 50% Median
137 10% 43%  
138 9% 32%  
139 5% 23% Last Result
140 4% 18%  
141 2% 14%  
142 2% 12%  
143 2% 10%  
144 2% 8%  
145 1.5% 6%  
146 1.0% 5%  
147 0.6% 4%  
148 0.9% 3%  
149 0.5% 2%  
150 0.4% 2%  
151 0.5% 1.1%  
152 0.4% 0.6%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0.2% 99.7%  
114 0.8% 99.5%  
115 0.5% 98.6%  
116 0.3% 98% Majority
117 0.9% 98%  
118 0.5% 97%  
119 1.2% 96%  
120 7% 95%  
121 2% 88%  
122 5% 86%  
123 9% 80%  
124 3% 71%  
125 5% 68%  
126 6% 62%  
127 4% 56% Last Result
128 6% 52%  
129 14% 46% Median
130 3% 32%  
131 10% 29%  
132 5% 19%  
133 2% 14%  
134 2% 12%  
135 2% 10%  
136 1.3% 8%  
137 2% 7%  
138 1.3% 5%  
139 0.6% 4%  
140 1.0% 3%  
141 1.1% 2%  
142 0.3% 1.1%  
143 0.2% 0.8%  
144 0.1% 0.7%  
145 0.4% 0.5%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.2% 99.7%  
108 0.1% 99.5%  
109 0.2% 99.4%  
110 0.9% 99.2%  
111 2% 98%  
112 0.8% 97%  
113 4% 96%  
114 3% 92%  
115 3% 89%  
116 5% 85% Majority
117 5% 80%  
118 4% 75%  
119 5% 71%  
120 5% 66% Last Result
121 3% 61%  
122 5% 57% Median
123 7% 53%  
124 16% 46%  
125 3% 30%  
126 8% 27%  
127 3% 18%  
128 5% 15%  
129 2% 10%  
130 2% 8%  
131 1.0% 6%  
132 0.9% 5%  
133 1.4% 4%  
134 0.5% 3%  
135 0.6% 2%  
136 0.3% 2%  
137 0.6% 1.3%  
138 0.3% 0.7%  
139 0.2% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.3% 99.7%  
101 0.7% 99.5%  
102 0.4% 98.8%  
103 0.4% 98%  
104 1.0% 98%  
105 1.3% 97%  
106 3% 96%  
107 7% 93%  
108 4% 86% Last Result
109 6% 82%  
110 3% 76%  
111 5% 73%  
112 6% 68%  
113 5% 62%  
114 6% 58%  
115 8% 52% Median
116 6% 44% Majority
117 13% 38%  
118 10% 26%  
119 4% 16%  
120 1.2% 12%  
121 2% 11%  
122 2% 9%  
123 2% 7%  
124 2% 5%  
125 0.6% 4%  
126 0.7% 3%  
127 0.6% 2%  
128 0.4% 2%  
129 0.4% 1.2%  
130 0.5% 0.8%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 0.6% 99.4%  
60 0.7% 98.8%  
61 1.3% 98%  
62 1.1% 97%  
63 2% 96%  
64 1.4% 94%  
65 0.9% 92%  
66 1.3% 91%  
67 2% 90%  
68 4% 88%  
69 6% 84%  
70 9% 78%  
71 10% 70%  
72 4% 60%  
73 9% 56% Median
74 5% 47%  
75 4% 43%  
76 6% 38%  
77 12% 33%  
78 5% 21%  
79 2% 16%  
80 4% 13%  
81 6% 10%  
82 0.7% 3%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.3% 2% Last Result
85 0.2% 2%  
86 0.2% 1.4%  
87 0.2% 1.2%  
88 0.8% 1.0%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations