Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 8–13 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.6% 35.1–40.2% 34.4–40.9% 33.8–41.5% 32.7–42.8%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 24.6% 22.5–27.0% 21.9–27.6% 21.4–28.2% 20.4–29.4%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.2% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.3% 6.3–10.7% 5.7–11.5%
Chega 1.3% 7.2% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.2% 5.4–9.6% 4.9–10.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.7% 4.7–7.1% 4.4–7.5% 4.2–7.9% 3.7–8.6%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.6% 4.6–7.0% 4.3–7.4% 4.0–7.7% 3.6–8.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.1% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.8% 1.7–5.4%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.6% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–4.0% 1.6–4.2% 1.4–4.8%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 108 102–116 100–119 98–122 95–126
Partido Social Democrata 79 69 62–77 59–78 57–79 54–83
Bloco de Esquerda 19 14 12–19 11–21 10–22 8–24
Chega 1 13 10–15 8–17 8–19 6–21
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 6–14 6–15 6–15 5–18
Iniciativa Liberal 1 8 6–12 6–12 5–14 4–14
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–5 2–6 1–6 1–9
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–3 0–4 0–5 0–5
LIVRE 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.8%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.1% 99.7%  
95 0.4% 99.6%  
96 0.7% 99.2%  
97 0.7% 98.5%  
98 1.3% 98%  
99 1.2% 97%  
100 2% 95%  
101 2% 93%  
102 3% 91%  
103 9% 88%  
104 3% 79%  
105 8% 76%  
106 5% 68%  
107 6% 63%  
108 7% 56% Last Result, Median
109 6% 50%  
110 6% 43%  
111 4% 37%  
112 4% 34%  
113 5% 29%  
114 5% 24%  
115 8% 19%  
116 2% 11% Majority
117 1.2% 9%  
118 2% 8%  
119 1.0% 5%  
120 1.2% 4%  
121 0.7% 3%  
122 1.0% 3%  
123 0.4% 2%  
124 0.3% 1.2%  
125 0.2% 0.9%  
126 0.4% 0.7%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.2%  
56 0.7% 98.7%  
57 0.9% 98%  
58 1.2% 97%  
59 1.2% 96%  
60 2% 95%  
61 1.4% 93%  
62 3% 92%  
63 3% 89%  
64 2% 86%  
65 3% 84%  
66 8% 81%  
67 6% 73%  
68 12% 67%  
69 7% 55% Median
70 4% 48%  
71 10% 43%  
72 8% 34%  
73 5% 25%  
74 3% 21%  
75 3% 18%  
76 4% 15%  
77 2% 12%  
78 5% 9%  
79 2% 4% Last Result
80 0.5% 2%  
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.9%  
83 0.1% 0.6%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 0.9% 99.7%  
9 0.9% 98.8%  
10 1.0% 98%  
11 6% 97%  
12 7% 91%  
13 10% 84%  
14 27% 74% Median
15 8% 47%  
16 6% 39%  
17 5% 33%  
18 16% 28%  
19 4% 12% Last Result
20 2% 7%  
21 2% 6%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.6% 1.1%  
24 0.2% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 0.2% 99.8%  
6 0.5% 99.6%  
7 0.9% 99.1%  
8 4% 98%  
9 2% 94%  
10 4% 92%  
11 25% 88%  
12 8% 63%  
13 8% 55% Median
14 35% 47%  
15 3% 13%  
16 3% 9%  
17 2% 6%  
18 2% 5%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.4% 1.0%  
21 0.3% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.3%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 1.3% 99.8%  
6 12% 98%  
7 13% 86%  
8 7% 73%  
9 6% 67%  
10 18% 61% Median
11 7% 43%  
12 6% 36% Last Result
13 6% 30%  
14 16% 24%  
15 6% 8%  
16 0.8% 2%  
17 0.6% 1.2%  
18 0.4% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.3% 100%  
5 3% 98.6%  
6 33% 95%  
7 12% 62%  
8 3% 50% Median
9 6% 47%  
10 16% 41%  
11 2% 25%  
12 19% 23%  
13 1.0% 4%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 3% 99.8%  
2 35% 96%  
3 21% 61% Median
4 27% 40% Last Result
5 7% 13%  
6 4% 5%  
7 0.7% 2%  
8 0.3% 1.2%  
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 43% 87% Median
2 31% 45%  
3 8% 14%  
4 3% 6%  
5 3% 3% Last Result
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Median
1 26% 26% Last Result
2 0.2% 0.3%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 134 100% 127–142 125–144 123–147 120–153
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 124 95% 116–131 116–135 114–138 109–143
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 119 75% 111–127 109–129 107–131 104–136
Partido Socialista 108 108 11% 102–116 100–119 98–122 95–126
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 70 0% 64–79 62–80 59–82 56–85

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.2% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 99.6%  
121 0.4% 99.4%  
122 0.9% 99.0%  
123 0.8% 98%  
124 2% 97%  
125 1.5% 96%  
126 3% 94%  
127 2% 91%  
128 3% 89%  
129 4% 86%  
130 6% 82%  
131 8% 76%  
132 9% 68% Median
133 7% 58%  
134 6% 52%  
135 6% 46%  
136 4% 40%  
137 7% 36%  
138 3% 28%  
139 9% 25% Last Result
140 3% 16%  
141 3% 14%  
142 2% 10%  
143 2% 8%  
144 1.4% 6%  
145 0.8% 5%  
146 0.9% 4%  
147 1.0% 3%  
148 0.4% 2%  
149 0.5% 2%  
150 0.4% 1.4%  
151 0.3% 1.0%  
152 0.2% 0.7%  
153 0.2% 0.6%  
154 0.3% 0.4%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.1% 99.5%  
111 0.4% 99.4%  
112 0.4% 99.0%  
113 1.0% 98.5%  
114 0.5% 98%  
115 2% 97%  
116 6% 95% Majority
117 4% 89%  
118 4% 85%  
119 4% 81%  
120 6% 77%  
121 6% 71%  
122 8% 65% Median
123 4% 56%  
124 9% 52%  
125 6% 43%  
126 3% 37%  
127 5% 34% Last Result
128 2% 29%  
129 12% 27%  
130 3% 14%  
131 2% 12%  
132 1.3% 9%  
133 1.1% 8%  
134 2% 7%  
135 1.0% 6%  
136 1.3% 5%  
137 0.5% 3%  
138 0.4% 3%  
139 0.6% 2%  
140 0.5% 2%  
141 0.3% 1.2%  
142 0.4% 0.9%  
143 0.2% 0.6%  
144 0.2% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.1% 99.7%  
104 0.2% 99.6%  
105 0.2% 99.3%  
106 0.8% 99.1%  
107 0.9% 98%  
108 2% 97%  
109 1.3% 95%  
110 1.2% 94%  
111 4% 93%  
112 3% 89%  
113 5% 87%  
114 3% 82%  
115 4% 78%  
116 4% 75% Majority
117 12% 71%  
118 4% 59% Median
119 9% 55%  
120 8% 46% Last Result
121 3% 39%  
122 8% 35%  
123 5% 27%  
124 2% 22%  
125 7% 20%  
126 1.5% 13%  
127 4% 11%  
128 1.4% 7%  
129 2% 6%  
130 1.0% 4%  
131 0.7% 3%  
132 0.6% 2%  
133 0.4% 2%  
134 0.3% 1.2%  
135 0.2% 0.9%  
136 0.4% 0.7%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.8%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.1% 99.7%  
95 0.4% 99.6%  
96 0.7% 99.2%  
97 0.7% 98.5%  
98 1.3% 98%  
99 1.2% 97%  
100 2% 95%  
101 2% 93%  
102 3% 91%  
103 9% 88%  
104 3% 79%  
105 8% 76%  
106 5% 68%  
107 6% 63%  
108 7% 56% Last Result, Median
109 6% 50%  
110 6% 43%  
111 4% 37%  
112 4% 34%  
113 5% 29%  
114 5% 24%  
115 8% 19%  
116 2% 11% Majority
117 1.2% 9%  
118 2% 8%  
119 1.0% 5%  
120 1.2% 4%  
121 0.7% 3%  
122 1.0% 3%  
123 0.4% 2%  
124 0.3% 1.2%  
125 0.2% 0.9%  
126 0.4% 0.7%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 0.5% 99.3%  
58 1.1% 98.8%  
59 0.8% 98%  
60 0.9% 97%  
61 0.7% 96%  
62 1.5% 95%  
63 3% 94%  
64 3% 91%  
65 2% 87%  
66 3% 86%  
67 6% 82%  
68 10% 76%  
69 12% 67%  
70 5% 55% Median
71 5% 50%  
72 4% 45%  
73 10% 42%  
74 6% 32%  
75 6% 26%  
76 3% 19%  
77 4% 17%  
78 3% 13%  
79 3% 10%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.9% 3%  
83 0.5% 2%  
84 0.5% 1.2% Last Result
85 0.3% 0.7%  
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations