Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias, 17–20 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.6% 35.5–39.8% 34.9–40.4% 34.3–41.0% 33.3–42.0%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 26.5% 24.6–28.6% 24.1–29.1% 23.6–29.6% 22.7–30.7%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 7.7% 6.6–9.0% 6.3–9.4% 6.0–9.7% 5.5–10.4%
Chega 1.3% 6.4% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0% 5.0–8.4% 4.5–9.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.8% 4.9–7.0% 4.6–7.4% 4.4–7.7% 4.0–8.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.7% 4.8–6.9% 4.5–7.2% 4.3–7.5% 3.9–8.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.9–5.6% 2.5–6.1%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.4% 0.6–2.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.8% 0.3–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 108 101–115 99–116 98–117 95–121
Partido Social Democrata 79 72 67–78 66–79 66–80 62–86
Bloco de Esquerda 19 12 11–18 9–18 9–19 7–21
Chega 1 10 8–13 8–14 7–14 5–16
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 7–14 6–15 6–15 5–16
Iniciativa Liberal 1 10 6–12 6–13 6–14 6–14
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 4 4–7 2–9 2–9 2–10
LIVRE 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–3
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.8%  
95 0.5% 99.8%  
96 0.1% 99.3%  
97 0.3% 99.3%  
98 4% 99.0%  
99 4% 95%  
100 1.0% 92%  
101 1.4% 91%  
102 3% 89%  
103 3% 86%  
104 4% 83%  
105 15% 79%  
106 4% 63%  
107 8% 59%  
108 5% 51% Last Result, Median
109 3% 45%  
110 7% 43%  
111 4% 35%  
112 2% 31%  
113 0.8% 29%  
114 2% 28%  
115 21% 26%  
116 1.2% 5% Majority
117 3% 4%  
118 0.2% 2%  
119 0.8% 1.4%  
120 0.1% 0.6%  
121 0.1% 0.6%  
122 0.1% 0.4%  
123 0% 0.3%  
124 0.3% 0.3%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.5% 99.7%  
63 0.8% 99.1%  
64 0.3% 98%  
65 0.2% 98%  
66 4% 98%  
67 4% 94%  
68 21% 90%  
69 0.6% 69%  
70 6% 69%  
71 12% 63%  
72 2% 51% Median
73 9% 49%  
74 4% 40%  
75 5% 36%  
76 10% 32%  
77 5% 22%  
78 10% 17%  
79 4% 7% Last Result
80 0.8% 3%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 0.1% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.4%  
84 0.2% 0.9%  
85 0.2% 0.7%  
86 0.2% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.6% 100%  
8 0.7% 99.4%  
9 4% 98.7%  
10 0.8% 95%  
11 23% 94%  
12 25% 71% Median
13 16% 46%  
14 9% 30%  
15 7% 21%  
16 2% 14%  
17 1.4% 12%  
18 7% 11%  
19 1.5% 4% Last Result
20 0.9% 2%  
21 1.3% 1.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.2% 100%  
5 0.4% 99.8%  
6 2% 99.4%  
7 0.5% 98%  
8 22% 97%  
9 17% 75%  
10 19% 58% Median
11 19% 40%  
12 7% 21%  
13 7% 14%  
14 6% 7%  
15 0.1% 0.8%  
16 0.4% 0.7%  
17 0% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 6% 99.2%  
7 20% 93%  
8 4% 73%  
9 2% 69%  
10 18% 68% Median
11 4% 50%  
12 3% 46% Last Result
13 26% 43%  
14 8% 17%  
15 9% 9%  
16 0.2% 0.7%  
17 0.2% 0.5%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.4% 99.9%  
6 14% 99.5%  
7 9% 85%  
8 7% 77%  
9 9% 69%  
10 22% 60% Median
11 3% 39%  
12 29% 36%  
13 2% 7%  
14 5% 5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 5% 100%  
3 4% 95%  
4 42% 90% Last Result, Median
5 16% 48%  
6 22% 32%  
7 0.8% 11%  
8 4% 10%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.7% 0.9%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100%  
1 63% 67% Last Result, Median
2 2% 3%  
3 1.0% 1.0%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Median
1 1.3% 1.3%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 132 99.8% 124–140 123–140 122–140 117–148
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 121 86% 115–127 112–128 111–131 109–137
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 118 67% 112–128 109–128 108–128 102–132
Partido Socialista 108 108 5% 101–115 99–116 98–117 95–121
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 72 0% 67–78 66–79 66–80 62–86

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8% Majority
117 0.5% 99.7%  
118 0% 99.2%  
119 0.3% 99.2%  
120 0.2% 98.9%  
121 0.5% 98.7%  
122 3% 98%  
123 2% 95%  
124 3% 93%  
125 11% 90%  
126 1.5% 79%  
127 2% 77%  
128 7% 76%  
129 4% 68%  
130 4% 64% Median
131 4% 60%  
132 9% 56%  
133 3% 46%  
134 10% 43%  
135 3% 33%  
136 5% 30%  
137 2% 25%  
138 1.4% 23%  
139 0.6% 21% Last Result
140 18% 21%  
141 0.6% 2%  
142 0.2% 2%  
143 0.4% 2%  
144 0.3% 1.2%  
145 0.1% 0.9%  
146 0% 0.8%  
147 0.3% 0.8%  
148 0.2% 0.5%  
149 0.3% 0.3%  
150 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0.1% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.1% 99.7%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.4% 99.4%  
111 3% 99.0%  
112 2% 96%  
113 2% 93%  
114 0.6% 92%  
115 6% 91%  
116 4% 86% Majority
117 2% 82%  
118 15% 80%  
119 10% 65%  
120 2% 55% Median
121 10% 53%  
122 4% 43%  
123 2% 39%  
124 1.0% 38%  
125 4% 37%  
126 7% 33%  
127 18% 26% Last Result
128 3% 8%  
129 0.2% 5%  
130 0.2% 4%  
131 2% 4%  
132 0.1% 2%  
133 0.4% 2%  
134 0.5% 1.4%  
135 0.1% 0.9%  
136 0.2% 0.8%  
137 0.2% 0.6%  
138 0% 0.3%  
139 0% 0.3%  
140 0% 0.3%  
141 0% 0.3%  
142 0.2% 0.2%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0.4% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.5%  
104 0.1% 99.4%  
105 0.1% 99.3%  
106 0.2% 99.2%  
107 0.4% 99.0%  
108 1.4% 98.6%  
109 2% 97%  
110 2% 95%  
111 2% 93%  
112 11% 91%  
113 1.5% 80%  
114 7% 78%  
115 5% 72%  
116 4% 67% Majority
117 7% 62%  
118 7% 55% Median
119 2% 49%  
120 6% 46% Last Result
121 6% 40%  
122 3% 34%  
123 5% 31%  
124 0.5% 26%  
125 3% 25%  
126 0.5% 22%  
127 2% 22%  
128 17% 19%  
129 2% 2%  
130 0.1% 1.0%  
131 0.3% 0.9%  
132 0.3% 0.5%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.8%  
95 0.5% 99.8%  
96 0.1% 99.3%  
97 0.3% 99.3%  
98 4% 99.0%  
99 4% 95%  
100 1.0% 92%  
101 1.4% 91%  
102 3% 89%  
103 3% 86%  
104 4% 83%  
105 15% 79%  
106 4% 63%  
107 8% 59%  
108 5% 51% Last Result, Median
109 3% 45%  
110 7% 43%  
111 4% 35%  
112 2% 31%  
113 0.8% 29%  
114 2% 28%  
115 21% 26%  
116 1.2% 5% Majority
117 3% 4%  
118 0.2% 2%  
119 0.8% 1.4%  
120 0.1% 0.6%  
121 0.1% 0.6%  
122 0.1% 0.4%  
123 0% 0.3%  
124 0.3% 0.3%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.5% 99.7%  
63 0.8% 99.1%  
64 0.3% 98%  
65 0.2% 98%  
66 4% 98%  
67 4% 94%  
68 20% 90%  
69 0.7% 69%  
70 6% 69%  
71 12% 63%  
72 1.4% 51% Median
73 9% 49%  
74 4% 41%  
75 5% 37%  
76 10% 32%  
77 4% 22%  
78 10% 18%  
79 4% 7%  
80 0.9% 3%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 0.1% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.4%  
84 0.2% 0.9% Last Result
85 0.1% 0.7%  
86 0.2% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations