Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 4–10 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.6% 35.1–40.1% 34.4–40.8% 33.8–41.5% 32.7–42.7%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 23.6% 21.5–25.9% 20.9–26.5% 20.4–27.1% 19.4–28.2%
Chega 1.3% 8.9% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1% 6.9–11.5% 6.3–12.3%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.3% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.3% 6.4–10.7% 5.8–11.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.5% 4.5–6.9% 4.2–7.3% 4.0–7.6% 3.5–8.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.4% 4.4–6.7% 4.1–7.1% 3.8–7.5% 3.4–8.2%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.4% 1.8–3.4% 1.6–3.7% 1.5–4.0% 1.2–4.5%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.3% 1.7–3.3% 1.5–3.5% 1.4–3.8% 1.1–4.3%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 110 104–119 101–121 99–123 95–127
Partido Social Democrata 79 66 58–72 57–75 55–77 53–80
Chega 1 17 13–23 11–24 11–25 10–27
Bloco de Esquerda 19 17 12–19 11–21 11–23 7–24
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 6–13 5–14 5–15 4–17
Iniciativa Liberal 1 8 6–12 5–12 5–14 4–14
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–3 1–4 0–4 0–6
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–5
LIVRE 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.4% 99.5%  
97 0.6% 99.0%  
98 0.6% 98%  
99 0.7% 98%  
100 1.2% 97%  
101 1.2% 96%  
102 2% 95%  
103 2% 93%  
104 5% 91%  
105 10% 86%  
106 7% 76%  
107 8% 69%  
108 4% 60% Last Result
109 5% 56%  
110 6% 51% Median
111 5% 45%  
112 10% 40%  
113 4% 31%  
114 2% 27%  
115 4% 24%  
116 5% 21% Majority
117 0.9% 16%  
118 4% 15%  
119 3% 11%  
120 0.7% 8%  
121 3% 7%  
122 1.3% 4%  
123 0.4% 3%  
124 1.1% 2%  
125 0.3% 1.2%  
126 0.4% 0.9%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.2% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.5% 99.6%  
54 0.6% 99.1%  
55 1.2% 98.5%  
56 1.4% 97%  
57 6% 96%  
58 7% 90%  
59 3% 83%  
60 2% 80%  
61 2% 78%  
62 1.3% 77%  
63 4% 75%  
64 13% 72%  
65 8% 59%  
66 17% 51% Median
67 5% 34%  
68 5% 29%  
69 3% 23%  
70 4% 20%  
71 2% 16%  
72 5% 14%  
73 1.2% 9%  
74 2% 8%  
75 2% 6%  
76 1.5% 5%  
77 1.4% 3%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.9% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.4%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.3% 99.8%  
11 5% 99.5%  
12 4% 95%  
13 5% 90%  
14 21% 86%  
15 7% 64%  
16 2% 57%  
17 10% 55% Median
18 6% 45%  
19 15% 39%  
20 5% 24%  
21 5% 19%  
22 3% 14%  
23 4% 11%  
24 4% 7%  
25 1.0% 3%  
26 0.7% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.9%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 0.2% 99.5%  
9 0.2% 99.2%  
10 0.4% 99.0%  
11 4% 98.6%  
12 5% 94%  
13 2% 90%  
14 16% 88%  
15 6% 71%  
16 12% 66%  
17 9% 53% Median
18 20% 44%  
19 14% 24% Last Result
20 3% 10%  
21 2% 7%  
22 2% 5%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.4% 0.8%  
25 0.2% 0.4%  
26 0% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.5% 99.9%  
5 6% 99.4%  
6 15% 94%  
7 19% 79%  
8 11% 60% Median
9 6% 49%  
10 18% 43%  
11 5% 25%  
12 5% 20% Last Result
13 8% 15%  
14 4% 7%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.3% 0.9%  
17 0.2% 0.6%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.6% 99.9%  
5 4% 99.3%  
6 31% 95%  
7 9% 64%  
8 9% 55% Median
9 7% 46%  
10 19% 39%  
11 5% 21%  
12 11% 16%  
13 2% 5%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 14% 96%  
2 57% 82% Median
3 15% 25%  
4 8% 10% Last Result
5 1.0% 2%  
6 0.7% 0.8%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100%  
1 45% 72% Median
2 21% 27%  
3 4% 6%  
4 0.4% 2%  
5 2% 2% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Median
1 21% 21% Last Result
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 136 99.9% 128–144 127–146 124–148 119–152
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 125 97% 120–136 117–137 115–139 111–143
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 119 68% 111–127 110–130 108–132 104–136
Partido Socialista 108 110 21% 104–119 101–121 99–123 95–127
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 66 0% 59–74 58–76 57–78 54–81

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9% Majority
117 0% 99.8%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.7%  
120 0.2% 99.5%  
121 0.2% 99.3%  
122 0.6% 99.1%  
123 0.4% 98%  
124 1.2% 98%  
125 0.7% 97%  
126 0.8% 96%  
127 4% 95%  
128 4% 91%  
129 5% 87%  
130 3% 82%  
131 5% 78%  
132 10% 74%  
133 4% 64%  
134 4% 60%  
135 3% 56% Median
136 5% 52%  
137 5% 47%  
138 5% 42%  
139 10% 37% Last Result
140 3% 27%  
141 3% 24%  
142 9% 21%  
143 2% 12%  
144 2% 10%  
145 3% 9%  
146 1.3% 6%  
147 1.0% 4%  
148 1.1% 3%  
149 0.5% 2%  
150 0.6% 2%  
151 0.7% 1.2%  
152 0.1% 0.5%  
153 0.2% 0.4%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.7%  
111 0.3% 99.6%  
112 0.2% 99.4%  
113 0.4% 99.1%  
114 1.1% 98.7%  
115 1.0% 98%  
116 0.9% 97% Majority
117 2% 96%  
118 1.4% 94%  
119 1.3% 92%  
120 2% 91%  
121 6% 89%  
122 12% 83%  
123 5% 71%  
124 8% 66%  
125 8% 57%  
126 5% 49%  
127 4% 44% Last Result, Median
128 3% 40%  
129 2% 37%  
130 4% 35%  
131 8% 31%  
132 3% 23%  
133 2% 20%  
134 1.5% 18%  
135 5% 17%  
136 6% 12%  
137 1.3% 6%  
138 2% 5%  
139 1.1% 3%  
140 0.3% 2%  
141 0.5% 1.3%  
142 0.4% 0.9%  
143 0.2% 0.5%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.3% 99.8%  
104 0.3% 99.5%  
105 0.2% 99.3%  
106 0.4% 99.0%  
107 1.0% 98.7%  
108 0.5% 98%  
109 1.3% 97%  
110 2% 96%  
111 4% 94%  
112 3% 90%  
113 5% 86%  
114 5% 82%  
115 8% 76%  
116 6% 68% Majority
117 5% 62%  
118 5% 58% Median
119 5% 52%  
120 10% 48% Last Result
121 3% 38%  
122 4% 35%  
123 7% 31%  
124 4% 23%  
125 3% 20%  
126 2% 17%  
127 7% 15%  
128 1.3% 8%  
129 0.8% 7%  
130 1.5% 6%  
131 1.4% 5%  
132 1.1% 3%  
133 0.6% 2%  
134 0.2% 2%  
135 0.3% 1.4%  
136 0.7% 1.1%  
137 0.2% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.4% 99.5%  
97 0.6% 99.0%  
98 0.6% 98%  
99 0.7% 98%  
100 1.2% 97%  
101 1.2% 96%  
102 2% 95%  
103 2% 93%  
104 5% 91%  
105 10% 86%  
106 7% 76%  
107 8% 69%  
108 4% 60% Last Result
109 5% 56%  
110 6% 51% Median
111 5% 45%  
112 10% 40%  
113 4% 31%  
114 2% 27%  
115 4% 24%  
116 5% 21% Majority
117 0.9% 16%  
118 4% 15%  
119 3% 11%  
120 0.7% 8%  
121 3% 7%  
122 1.3% 4%  
123 0.4% 3%  
124 1.1% 2%  
125 0.3% 1.2%  
126 0.4% 0.9%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.2% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.8%  
54 0.6% 99.7%  
55 0.5% 99.1%  
56 0.9% 98.6%  
57 2% 98%  
58 4% 96%  
59 8% 92%  
60 2% 84%  
61 3% 82%  
62 1.4% 79%  
63 2% 78%  
64 7% 76%  
65 10% 69%  
66 10% 58%  
67 11% 48% Median
68 7% 37%  
69 6% 30%  
70 3% 24%  
71 3% 21%  
72 2% 17%  
73 3% 15%  
74 4% 13%  
75 2% 9%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 5%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.4% 1.0%  
81 0.2% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1% Last Result
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations