Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 7–13 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 36.1% 33.7–38.7% 33.0–39.4% 32.4–40.0% 31.2–41.3%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 23.3% 21.2–25.6% 20.6–26.3% 20.1–26.8% 19.2–28.0%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 9.4% 8.0–11.1% 7.6–11.5% 7.3–11.9% 6.7–12.8%
Chega 1.3% 9.4% 8.0–11.1% 7.6–11.5% 7.3–11.9% 6.7–12.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.0–7.0% 3.7–7.3% 3.3–8.0%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 4.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6% 3.5–7.0% 3.1–7.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 4.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.4% 3.3–6.8% 2.9–7.4%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 3.1% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.8% 1.7–5.4%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.3% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.1–1.2% 0.0–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 104 98–113 96–116 93–117 89–122
Partido Social Democrata 79 64 57–71 56–72 55–74 51–79
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 14–23 14–23 13–25 12–29
Chega 1 18 13–24 12–25 11–25 11–28
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 5–12 5–13 5–14 3–15
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 5–11 5–12 4–12 3–14
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 6 4–9 4–11 3–11 2–12
CDS–Partido Popular 5 2 1–5 1–5 1–5 0–6
LIVRE 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0% 99.8%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.3% 99.5%  
91 0.3% 99.2%  
92 0.8% 98.9%  
93 1.1% 98%  
94 1.0% 97%  
95 0.7% 96%  
96 2% 95%  
97 2% 93%  
98 5% 91%  
99 2% 86%  
100 8% 84%  
101 4% 76%  
102 6% 72%  
103 8% 66%  
104 9% 58% Median
105 6% 48%  
106 6% 43%  
107 5% 36%  
108 5% 31% Last Result
109 5% 26%  
110 3% 21%  
111 1.5% 18%  
112 4% 16%  
113 4% 12%  
114 0.8% 8%  
115 3% 8%  
116 2% 5% Majority
117 1.0% 3%  
118 0.3% 2%  
119 0.4% 2%  
120 0.1% 2%  
121 0.7% 2%  
122 0.7% 0.8%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.7%  
51 0.1% 99.6%  
52 0.5% 99.5%  
53 0.4% 99.0%  
54 0.8% 98.6%  
55 2% 98%  
56 5% 95%  
57 2% 91%  
58 4% 88%  
59 5% 85%  
60 4% 79%  
61 7% 75%  
62 5% 68%  
63 5% 63%  
64 9% 58% Median
65 4% 49%  
66 11% 45%  
67 14% 34%  
68 3% 19%  
69 1.2% 16%  
70 2% 15%  
71 3% 13%  
72 6% 9%  
73 1.0% 4%  
74 0.4% 3%  
75 0.3% 2%  
76 0.4% 2%  
77 0.5% 1.5%  
78 0.5% 1.0%  
79 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 0.2% 99.9%  
12 1.2% 99.6%  
13 1.3% 98%  
14 9% 97%  
15 4% 89%  
16 6% 85%  
17 10% 79%  
18 24% 69% Median
19 13% 45% Last Result
20 6% 32%  
21 10% 26%  
22 6% 17%  
23 5% 10%  
24 2% 5%  
25 1.0% 3%  
26 0.3% 2%  
27 0.5% 1.4%  
28 0.2% 0.9%  
29 0.3% 0.6%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.3% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.6%  
12 4% 96%  
13 6% 92%  
14 15% 87%  
15 10% 72%  
16 3% 61%  
17 6% 58%  
18 4% 52% Median
19 12% 48%  
20 7% 36%  
21 4% 28%  
22 4% 24%  
23 5% 21%  
24 7% 15%  
25 6% 8%  
26 0.9% 2%  
27 0.9% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.6% 99.9%  
4 1.2% 99.3%  
5 10% 98%  
6 19% 88%  
7 18% 69%  
8 14% 51% Median
9 6% 38%  
10 16% 32%  
11 4% 16%  
12 4% 12% Last Result
13 5% 9%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.8% 1.2%  
16 0.2% 0.4%  
17 0% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.8% 100%  
4 3% 99.2%  
5 14% 96%  
6 49% 82% Median
7 6% 33%  
8 5% 27%  
9 4% 21%  
10 7% 18%  
11 5% 11%  
12 5% 6%  
13 0.6% 1.2%  
14 0.6% 0.6%  
15 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.6% 100%  
3 3% 99.4%  
4 14% 96% Last Result
5 18% 83%  
6 24% 64% Median
7 6% 40%  
8 9% 34%  
9 16% 25%  
10 1.1% 8%  
11 5% 7%  
12 1.5% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 23% 98%  
2 29% 75% Median
3 23% 46%  
4 4% 23%  
5 17% 18% Last Result
6 0.2% 0.6%  
7 0.2% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 4% 4% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 131 99.7% 124–140 121–143 120–144 116–148
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 123 91% 116–132 114–134 112–136 108–140
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 113 33% 106–122 103–124 100–126 98–130
Partido Socialista 108 104 5% 98–113 96–116 93–117 89–122
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 67 0% 59–74 58–75 57–77 53–82

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.3% 99.7% Majority
117 0.5% 99.3%  
118 0.8% 98.8%  
119 0.2% 98%  
120 1.1% 98%  
121 2% 97%  
122 2% 95%  
123 3% 93%  
124 6% 90%  
125 2% 85%  
126 3% 83%  
127 7% 80%  
128 3% 73%  
129 5% 70%  
130 8% 65% Median
131 9% 56%  
132 4% 48%  
133 8% 44%  
134 5% 36%  
135 2% 31%  
136 4% 29%  
137 5% 25%  
138 5% 20%  
139 2% 14% Last Result
140 4% 13%  
141 3% 9%  
142 0.8% 6%  
143 1.3% 5%  
144 2% 4%  
145 0.4% 2%  
146 0.7% 2%  
147 0.1% 0.9%  
148 0.4% 0.8%  
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.1% 99.7%  
108 0.4% 99.6%  
109 0.2% 99.2%  
110 0.3% 99.0%  
111 0.9% 98.7%  
112 1.1% 98%  
113 1.0% 97%  
114 2% 96%  
115 2% 94%  
116 6% 91% Majority
117 3% 86%  
118 4% 83%  
119 3% 79%  
120 8% 76%  
121 8% 68%  
122 7% 59% Median
123 3% 53%  
124 9% 50%  
125 5% 41%  
126 5% 36%  
127 7% 31% Last Result
128 2% 24%  
129 3% 22%  
130 6% 19%  
131 1.4% 14%  
132 5% 12%  
133 1.2% 7%  
134 0.9% 6%  
135 0.9% 5%  
136 2% 4%  
137 0.4% 2%  
138 0.4% 2%  
139 0.4% 1.3%  
140 0.6% 1.0%  
141 0.1% 0.4%  
142 0.2% 0.3%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.8%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.7%  
98 0.2% 99.6%  
99 0.6% 99.3%  
100 1.5% 98.7%  
101 0.6% 97%  
102 1.3% 97%  
103 1.0% 95%  
104 1.0% 94%  
105 2% 93%  
106 6% 91%  
107 2% 85%  
108 3% 83%  
109 4% 80%  
110 13% 76%  
111 7% 63%  
112 4% 55% Median
113 5% 51%  
114 7% 46%  
115 6% 39%  
116 6% 33% Majority
117 4% 27%  
118 2% 23%  
119 5% 21%  
120 1.4% 16% Last Result
121 3% 14%  
122 2% 11%  
123 3% 8%  
124 2% 5%  
125 0.6% 3%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 0.6% 2%  
128 0.8% 2%  
129 0.1% 0.7%  
130 0.2% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.2% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0% 99.8%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.3% 99.5%  
91 0.3% 99.2%  
92 0.8% 98.9%  
93 1.1% 98%  
94 1.0% 97%  
95 0.7% 96%  
96 2% 95%  
97 2% 93%  
98 5% 91%  
99 2% 86%  
100 8% 84%  
101 4% 76%  
102 6% 72%  
103 8% 66%  
104 9% 58% Median
105 6% 48%  
106 6% 43%  
107 5% 36%  
108 5% 31% Last Result
109 5% 26%  
110 3% 21%  
111 1.5% 18%  
112 4% 16%  
113 4% 12%  
114 0.8% 8%  
115 3% 8%  
116 2% 5% Majority
117 1.0% 3%  
118 0.3% 2%  
119 0.4% 2%  
120 0.1% 2%  
121 0.7% 2%  
122 0.7% 0.8%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.2% 99.6%  
54 0.3% 99.4%  
55 0.4% 99.1%  
56 1.2% 98.7%  
57 2% 98%  
58 2% 95%  
59 4% 93%  
60 4% 89%  
61 5% 86%  
62 4% 81%  
63 5% 77%  
64 4% 72%  
65 5% 68%  
66 9% 62% Median
67 9% 53%  
68 7% 45%  
69 9% 37%  
70 5% 29%  
71 4% 24%  
72 7% 20%  
73 2% 13%  
74 2% 11%  
75 5% 9%  
76 1.2% 4%  
77 0.5% 3%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.4% 1.5%  
80 0.3% 1.1%  
81 0.3% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations