Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias, 22–25 April 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 36.4% | 38.2% | 36.1–40.4% | 35.5–41.0% | 34.9–41.5% | 33.9–42.6% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 27.8% | 26.1% | 24.2–28.2% | 23.7–28.7% | 23.3–29.2% | 22.4–30.2% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.0–10.6% | 7.7–11.0% | 7.4–11.3% | 6.8–12.0% |
| Chega | 1.3% | 7.2% | 6.2–8.5% | 5.9–8.9% | 5.7–9.2% | 5.2–9.9% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.5–7.2% | 4.3–7.5% | 3.9–8.0% |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1.3% | 4.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.3–7.2% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 1.9–3.8% | 1.8–4.0% | 1.5–4.5% |
| LIVRE | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.7% | 0.3–2.1% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 4.2% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% | 0.1–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 111 | 105–116 | 102–117 | 101–119 | 97–122 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 79 | 71 | 66–77 | 64–79 | 63–82 | 60–84 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 18 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 14–22 | 11–25 |
| Chega | 1 | 11 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 9–17 | 8–18 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 12 | 8 | 7–14 | 6–14 | 6–15 | 5–15 |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1 | 6 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–12 | 4–12 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 4 | 2 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 |
| LIVRE | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 101 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 102 | 2% | 97% | |
| 103 | 2% | 94% | |
| 104 | 2% | 92% | |
| 105 | 6% | 90% | |
| 106 | 3% | 84% | |
| 107 | 13% | 81% | |
| 108 | 9% | 68% | Last Result |
| 109 | 5% | 59% | |
| 110 | 4% | 54% | |
| 111 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 112 | 7% | 46% | |
| 113 | 5% | 39% | |
| 114 | 10% | 34% | |
| 115 | 14% | 25% | |
| 116 | 5% | 10% | Majority |
| 117 | 2% | 6% | |
| 118 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 64 | 3% | 97% | |
| 65 | 3% | 95% | |
| 66 | 7% | 91% | |
| 67 | 7% | 85% | |
| 68 | 13% | 78% | |
| 69 | 4% | 65% | |
| 70 | 11% | 61% | |
| 71 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 72 | 7% | 45% | |
| 73 | 6% | 38% | |
| 74 | 2% | 32% | |
| 75 | 5% | 30% | |
| 76 | 13% | 26% | |
| 77 | 3% | 12% | |
| 78 | 3% | 9% | |
| 79 | 2% | 6% | Last Result |
| 80 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 14 | 6% | 98% | |
| 15 | 6% | 92% | |
| 16 | 14% | 86% | |
| 17 | 3% | 71% | |
| 18 | 36% | 68% | Median |
| 19 | 11% | 32% | Last Result |
| 20 | 6% | 21% | |
| 21 | 9% | 15% | |
| 22 | 4% | 6% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Chega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 4% | 98% | |
| 10 | 12% | 94% | |
| 11 | 42% | 82% | Median |
| 12 | 7% | 40% | |
| 13 | 15% | 32% | |
| 14 | 14% | 17% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 18 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 8% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 36% | 91% | |
| 8 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 9 | 14% | 48% | |
| 10 | 15% | 34% | |
| 11 | 1.5% | 19% | |
| 12 | 3% | 18% | Last Result |
| 13 | 3% | 15% | |
| 14 | 7% | 12% | |
| 15 | 4% | 5% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Iniciativa Liberal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 8% | 98% | |
| 6 | 44% | 90% | Median |
| 7 | 16% | 46% | |
| 8 | 5% | 30% | |
| 9 | 9% | 25% | |
| 10 | 11% | 16% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 15% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 53% | 85% | Median |
| 3 | 20% | 32% | |
| 4 | 10% | 12% | Last Result |
| 5 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
LIVRE
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 69% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 30% | 31% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 139 | 138 | 100% | 130–144 | 128–146 | 127–146 | 124–150 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 127 | 128 | 99.0% | 122–134 | 120–136 | 118–138 | 115–140 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 120 | 121 | 74% | 113–125 | 112–126 | 109–128 | 105–132 |
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 111 | 10% | 105–116 | 102–117 | 101–119 | 97–122 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 84 | 71 | 0% | 66–77 | 64–79 | 63–82 | 60–84 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 126 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 127 | 2% | 98% | |
| 128 | 2% | 97% | |
| 129 | 4% | 95% | |
| 130 | 4% | 90% | |
| 131 | 2% | 87% | |
| 132 | 3% | 84% | |
| 133 | 9% | 81% | |
| 134 | 5% | 72% | |
| 135 | 4% | 67% | |
| 136 | 5% | 63% | |
| 137 | 6% | 58% | Median |
| 138 | 5% | 52% | |
| 139 | 13% | 47% | Last Result |
| 140 | 8% | 34% | |
| 141 | 4% | 26% | |
| 142 | 4% | 22% | |
| 143 | 7% | 18% | |
| 144 | 3% | 11% | |
| 145 | 2% | 8% | |
| 146 | 3% | 6% | |
| 147 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 116 | 0.7% | 99.0% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 119 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 120 | 3% | 97% | |
| 121 | 3% | 94% | |
| 122 | 3% | 91% | |
| 123 | 8% | 88% | |
| 124 | 4% | 80% | |
| 125 | 7% | 76% | |
| 126 | 10% | 69% | |
| 127 | 5% | 59% | Last Result |
| 128 | 4% | 54% | |
| 129 | 6% | 50% | Median |
| 130 | 6% | 44% | |
| 131 | 8% | 38% | |
| 132 | 9% | 30% | |
| 133 | 4% | 21% | |
| 134 | 8% | 17% | |
| 135 | 2% | 9% | |
| 136 | 4% | 7% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 138 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 139 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 109 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 111 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 112 | 4% | 95% | |
| 113 | 7% | 91% | |
| 114 | 2% | 84% | |
| 115 | 8% | 82% | |
| 116 | 5% | 74% | Majority |
| 117 | 5% | 69% | |
| 118 | 6% | 64% | |
| 119 | 4% | 57% | Median |
| 120 | 2% | 53% | Last Result |
| 121 | 12% | 51% | |
| 122 | 12% | 39% | |
| 123 | 4% | 26% | |
| 124 | 9% | 22% | |
| 125 | 5% | 12% | |
| 126 | 3% | 8% | |
| 127 | 2% | 5% | |
| 128 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 129 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 101 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 102 | 2% | 97% | |
| 103 | 2% | 94% | |
| 104 | 2% | 92% | |
| 105 | 6% | 90% | |
| 106 | 3% | 84% | |
| 107 | 13% | 81% | |
| 108 | 9% | 68% | Last Result |
| 109 | 5% | 59% | |
| 110 | 4% | 54% | |
| 111 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 112 | 7% | 46% | |
| 113 | 5% | 39% | |
| 114 | 10% | 34% | |
| 115 | 14% | 25% | |
| 116 | 5% | 10% | Majority |
| 117 | 2% | 6% | |
| 118 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 64 | 3% | 97% | |
| 65 | 3% | 95% | |
| 66 | 7% | 91% | |
| 67 | 7% | 85% | |
| 68 | 13% | 78% | |
| 69 | 4% | 65% | |
| 70 | 11% | 61% | |
| 71 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 72 | 7% | 45% | |
| 73 | 6% | 38% | |
| 74 | 2% | 32% | |
| 75 | 5% | 30% | |
| 76 | 13% | 26% | |
| 77 | 3% | 12% | |
| 78 | 3% | 9% | |
| 79 | 2% | 6% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Aximage
- Commissioner(s): Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias
- Fieldwork period: 22–25 April 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 830
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.07%