Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias, 22–25 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.2% 36.1–40.4% 35.5–41.0% 34.9–41.5% 33.9–42.6%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 26.1% 24.2–28.2% 23.7–28.7% 23.3–29.2% 22.4–30.2%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 9.2% 8.0–10.6% 7.7–11.0% 7.4–11.3% 6.8–12.0%
Chega 1.3% 7.2% 6.2–8.5% 5.9–8.9% 5.7–9.2% 5.2–9.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.7% 4.8–6.8% 4.5–7.2% 4.3–7.5% 3.9–8.0%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 4.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.6% 3.3–7.2%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 1.9–3.8% 1.8–4.0% 1.5–4.5%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.8% 0.5–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.7% 0.3–2.1%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.1% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 111 105–116 102–117 101–119 97–122
Partido Social Democrata 79 71 66–77 64–79 63–82 60–84
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 15–21 14–22 14–22 11–25
Chega 1 11 10–14 9–14 9–17 8–18
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 7–14 6–14 6–15 5–15
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 5–10 5–10 5–12 4–12
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–4 1–4 1–4 1–5
LIVRE 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.8%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.3% 99.7%  
98 0.5% 99.5%  
99 0.8% 99.0%  
100 0.3% 98%  
101 1.4% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 2% 94%  
104 2% 92%  
105 6% 90%  
106 3% 84%  
107 13% 81%  
108 9% 68% Last Result
109 5% 59%  
110 4% 54%  
111 5% 50% Median
112 7% 46%  
113 5% 39%  
114 10% 34%  
115 14% 25%  
116 5% 10% Majority
117 2% 6%  
118 1.1% 4%  
119 0.5% 3%  
120 1.0% 2%  
121 0.5% 1.0%  
122 0.2% 0.6%  
123 0.2% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0.1% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.7%  
60 0.4% 99.5%  
61 0.5% 99.1%  
62 0.4% 98.6%  
63 1.0% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 3% 95%  
66 7% 91%  
67 7% 85%  
68 13% 78%  
69 4% 65%  
70 11% 61%  
71 5% 50% Median
72 7% 45%  
73 6% 38%  
74 2% 32%  
75 5% 30%  
76 13% 26%  
77 3% 12%  
78 3% 9%  
79 2% 6% Last Result
80 0.6% 4%  
81 0.7% 4%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.7% 1.3%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0.6% 99.9%  
12 0.5% 99.4%  
13 0.9% 98.9%  
14 6% 98%  
15 6% 92%  
16 14% 86%  
17 3% 71%  
18 36% 68% Median
19 11% 32% Last Result
20 6% 21%  
21 9% 15%  
22 4% 6%  
23 0.9% 2%  
24 0.5% 1.2%  
25 0.3% 0.7%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.1% 99.8%  
8 2% 99.7%  
9 4% 98%  
10 12% 94%  
11 42% 82% Median
12 7% 40%  
13 15% 32%  
14 14% 17%  
15 0.8% 4%  
16 0.2% 3%  
17 0.7% 3%  
18 1.5% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.5%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.9% 99.9%  
6 8% 99.0%  
7 36% 91%  
8 7% 55% Median
9 14% 48%  
10 15% 34%  
11 1.5% 19%  
12 3% 18% Last Result
13 3% 15%  
14 7% 12%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 8% 98%  
6 44% 90% Median
7 16% 46%  
8 5% 30%  
9 9% 25%  
10 11% 16%  
11 1.0% 5%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.1% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 15% 99.7%  
2 53% 85% Median
3 20% 32%  
4 10% 12% Last Result
5 1.2% 2%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Median
1 30% 31% Last Result
2 0.3% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 138 100% 130–144 128–146 127–146 124–150
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 128 99.0% 122–134 120–136 118–138 115–140
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 121 74% 113–125 112–126 109–128 105–132
Partido Socialista 108 111 10% 105–116 102–117 101–119 97–122
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 71 0% 66–77 64–79 63–82 60–84

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.3% 99.7%  
125 0.4% 99.3%  
126 0.6% 99.0%  
127 2% 98%  
128 2% 97%  
129 4% 95%  
130 4% 90%  
131 2% 87%  
132 3% 84%  
133 9% 81%  
134 5% 72%  
135 4% 67%  
136 5% 63%  
137 6% 58% Median
138 5% 52%  
139 13% 47% Last Result
140 8% 34%  
141 4% 26%  
142 4% 22%  
143 7% 18%  
144 3% 11%  
145 2% 8%  
146 3% 6%  
147 0.9% 2%  
148 0.8% 2%  
149 0.2% 0.8%  
150 0.3% 0.6%  
151 0.1% 0.3%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.6% 99.6%  
116 0.7% 99.0% Majority
117 0.4% 98%  
118 0.4% 98%  
119 0.7% 97%  
120 3% 97%  
121 3% 94%  
122 3% 91%  
123 8% 88%  
124 4% 80%  
125 7% 76%  
126 10% 69%  
127 5% 59% Last Result
128 4% 54%  
129 6% 50% Median
130 6% 44%  
131 8% 38%  
132 9% 30%  
133 4% 21%  
134 8% 17%  
135 2% 9%  
136 4% 7%  
137 0.4% 3%  
138 1.2% 3%  
139 0.7% 1.4%  
140 0.3% 0.7%  
141 0.1% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.7%  
106 0.1% 99.5%  
107 0.3% 99.3%  
108 0.6% 99.1%  
109 1.1% 98%  
110 0.7% 97%  
111 1.4% 97%  
112 4% 95%  
113 7% 91%  
114 2% 84%  
115 8% 82%  
116 5% 74% Majority
117 5% 69%  
118 6% 64%  
119 4% 57% Median
120 2% 53% Last Result
121 12% 51%  
122 12% 39%  
123 4% 26%  
124 9% 22%  
125 5% 12%  
126 3% 8%  
127 2% 5%  
128 1.0% 3%  
129 0.8% 2%  
130 0.6% 1.3%  
131 0.1% 0.7%  
132 0.2% 0.5%  
133 0.1% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.8%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.3% 99.7%  
98 0.5% 99.5%  
99 0.8% 99.0%  
100 0.3% 98%  
101 1.4% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 2% 94%  
104 2% 92%  
105 6% 90%  
106 3% 84%  
107 13% 81%  
108 9% 68% Last Result
109 5% 59%  
110 4% 54%  
111 5% 50% Median
112 7% 46%  
113 5% 39%  
114 10% 34%  
115 14% 25%  
116 5% 10% Majority
117 2% 6%  
118 1.1% 4%  
119 0.5% 3%  
120 1.0% 2%  
121 0.5% 1.0%  
122 0.2% 0.6%  
123 0.2% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0.1% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.7%  
60 0.4% 99.5%  
61 0.5% 99.1%  
62 0.4% 98.6%  
63 1.0% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 3% 95%  
66 7% 91%  
67 7% 85%  
68 13% 78%  
69 4% 65%  
70 11% 61%  
71 5% 50% Median
72 7% 45%  
73 6% 38%  
74 2% 32%  
75 5% 30%  
76 13% 26%  
77 3% 12%  
78 3% 9%  
79 2% 6%  
80 0.6% 4%  
81 0.7% 4%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.7% 1.3%  
84 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations