Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 5–11 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.0% 35.5–40.5% 34.8–41.3% 34.2–41.9% 33.0–43.1%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 21.8% 19.7–24.0% 19.2–24.7% 18.7–25.2% 17.7–26.3%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.3% 7.1–10.0% 6.7–10.4% 6.4–10.8% 5.8–11.6%
Chega 1.3% 8.3% 7.1–10.0% 6.7–10.4% 6.4–10.8% 5.8–11.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.3% 4.0–7.7% 3.6–8.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 4.7% 3.8–6.1% 3.5–6.4% 3.3–6.7% 2.9–7.4%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 4.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.1–5.9% 2.9–6.2% 2.5–6.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.9% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3% 1.9–4.6% 1.6–5.2%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.3% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.6% 0.5–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 110 105–120 103–122 101–123 100–128
Partido Social Democrata 79 62 54–66 53–67 52–69 47–73
Bloco de Esquerda 19 16 13–20 13–22 11–24 8–25
Chega 1 15 11–21 11–24 10–25 9–25
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 6–13 6–14 5–15 5–17
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 8 4–9 4–11 3–12 2–12
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 4–10 3–10 3–10 3–12
CDS–Partido Popular 5 2 1–4 1–5 0–5 0–7
LIVRE 1 1 0–1 0–2 0–3 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.7%  
100 1.2% 99.5%  
101 1.0% 98%  
102 1.3% 97%  
103 2% 96%  
104 2% 94%  
105 9% 92%  
106 3% 83%  
107 5% 80%  
108 7% 75% Last Result
109 17% 68%  
110 0.9% 51% Median
111 17% 50%  
112 4% 33%  
113 2% 29%  
114 3% 27%  
115 4% 25%  
116 0.7% 20% Majority
117 0.5% 20%  
118 2% 19%  
119 7% 17%  
120 2% 10%  
121 2% 8%  
122 3% 6%  
123 0.6% 3%  
124 0.2% 2%  
125 0.1% 2%  
126 0.1% 2%  
127 0.2% 2%  
128 1.1% 1.5%  
129 0.2% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.5%  
49 0.1% 99.3%  
50 0.5% 99.2%  
51 1.1% 98.7%  
52 1.0% 98%  
53 3% 97%  
54 5% 94%  
55 2% 89%  
56 2% 87%  
57 14% 85%  
58 6% 71%  
59 8% 65%  
60 4% 57%  
61 1.2% 53%  
62 4% 52% Median
63 3% 48%  
64 8% 46%  
65 6% 38%  
66 26% 32%  
67 1.5% 5%  
68 0.9% 4%  
69 0.5% 3%  
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0% 2%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.7% 0.9%  
74 0% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100%  
8 0.4% 99.6%  
9 0.1% 99.1%  
10 0.2% 99.0%  
11 2% 98.8%  
12 2% 97%  
13 11% 95%  
14 27% 84%  
15 0.8% 57%  
16 12% 57% Median
17 7% 45%  
18 10% 38%  
19 17% 28% Last Result
20 1.1% 10%  
21 1.0% 9%  
22 5% 8%  
23 0.4% 3%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.7% 0.9%  
26 0% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 0.7% 99.7%  
10 2% 99.0%  
11 8% 97%  
12 16% 90%  
13 8% 74%  
14 9% 67%  
15 9% 58% Median
16 8% 48%  
17 10% 40%  
18 6% 30%  
19 0.7% 24%  
20 2% 23%  
21 13% 21%  
22 2% 9%  
23 1.2% 7%  
24 0.8% 6%  
25 5% 5%  
26 0.2% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.2% 99.9%  
5 2% 99.7%  
6 24% 97%  
7 16% 73%  
8 13% 57% Median
9 3% 44%  
10 25% 41%  
11 2% 16%  
12 3% 14% Last Result
13 4% 11%  
14 4% 7%  
15 2% 4%  
16 1.1% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.5%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.6% 100%  
3 4% 99.4%  
4 13% 95% Last Result
5 6% 82%  
6 20% 76%  
7 3% 56%  
8 11% 53% Median
9 34% 42%  
10 0.7% 8%  
11 5% 8%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 5% 95%  
5 20% 90%  
6 38% 70% Median
7 12% 32%  
8 3% 20%  
9 3% 17%  
10 12% 14%  
11 0.9% 2%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 27% 97%  
2 46% 70% Median
3 12% 23%  
4 2% 11%  
5 8% 9% Last Result
6 0.1% 1.0%  
7 0.8% 1.0%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 77% 83% Last Result, Median
2 3% 7%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 136 100% 129–143 128–148 127–149 123–154
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 127 99.1% 120–135 118–137 117–140 114–145
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 118 83% 115–128 112–132 112–135 107–137
Partido Socialista 108 110 20% 105–120 103–122 101–123 100–128
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 64 0% 55–68 55–68 54–71 50–75

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0.1% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.2% 99.8%  
123 0.3% 99.6%  
124 0.2% 99.4%  
125 0.9% 99.2%  
126 0.2% 98%  
127 1.5% 98%  
128 6% 97%  
129 3% 91%  
130 5% 87%  
131 8% 83%  
132 2% 75%  
133 11% 73%  
134 5% 63% Median
135 4% 58%  
136 9% 54%  
137 13% 45%  
138 3% 32%  
139 2% 29% Last Result
140 5% 27%  
141 7% 22%  
142 2% 15%  
143 4% 13%  
144 1.0% 9%  
145 0.9% 8%  
146 0.6% 7%  
147 1.2% 7%  
148 0.4% 5%  
149 3% 5%  
150 0.3% 2%  
151 0.3% 2%  
152 0.2% 2%  
153 0.1% 1.3%  
154 1.1% 1.2%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.3% 99.8%  
114 0.3% 99.5%  
115 0.1% 99.2%  
116 0.3% 99.1% Majority
117 2% 98.8%  
118 7% 97%  
119 0.5% 91%  
120 6% 90%  
121 1.3% 84%  
122 6% 83%  
123 10% 78%  
124 0.4% 68%  
125 8% 67%  
126 7% 59% Median
127 3% 52% Last Result
128 8% 49%  
129 2% 41%  
130 11% 40%  
131 4% 29%  
132 3% 25%  
133 0.8% 22%  
134 6% 21%  
135 7% 16%  
136 3% 9%  
137 3% 6%  
138 0.8% 4%  
139 0.2% 3%  
140 0.4% 3%  
141 0.6% 2%  
142 0.2% 2%  
143 0.1% 2%  
144 0.2% 1.4%  
145 0.9% 1.3%  
146 0.3% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0.3% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.6%  
107 0.1% 99.5%  
108 0.4% 99.4%  
109 0.2% 99.1%  
110 0.6% 98.9%  
111 0.8% 98%  
112 4% 98%  
113 1.0% 94%  
114 3% 93%  
115 8% 90%  
116 5% 83% Majority
117 18% 77%  
118 14% 60% Median
119 13% 46%  
120 2% 33% Last Result
121 5% 31%  
122 2% 26%  
123 0.5% 24%  
124 3% 23%  
125 6% 21%  
126 3% 15%  
127 1.1% 12%  
128 1.4% 11%  
129 2% 9%  
130 0.9% 8%  
131 1.3% 7%  
132 0.8% 6%  
133 0.2% 5%  
134 1.0% 5%  
135 2% 4%  
136 0.5% 1.4%  
137 0.8% 0.9%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.7%  
100 1.2% 99.5%  
101 1.0% 98%  
102 1.3% 97%  
103 2% 96%  
104 2% 94%  
105 9% 92%  
106 3% 83%  
107 5% 80%  
108 7% 75% Last Result
109 17% 68%  
110 0.9% 51% Median
111 17% 50%  
112 4% 33%  
113 2% 29%  
114 3% 27%  
115 4% 25%  
116 0.7% 20% Majority
117 0.5% 20%  
118 2% 19%  
119 7% 17%  
120 2% 10%  
121 2% 8%  
122 3% 6%  
123 0.6% 3%  
124 0.2% 2%  
125 0.1% 2%  
126 0.1% 2%  
127 0.2% 2%  
128 1.1% 1.5%  
129 0.2% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.2% 99.7%  
51 0.1% 99.5%  
52 1.3% 99.4%  
53 0.3% 98%  
54 0.6% 98%  
55 7% 97%  
56 0.5% 90%  
57 2% 89%  
58 2% 88%  
59 14% 86%  
60 2% 72%  
61 4% 69%  
62 4% 65%  
63 6% 61%  
64 6% 55% Median
65 8% 49%  
66 2% 40%  
67 14% 39%  
68 20% 25%  
69 0.5% 5%  
70 1.0% 4%  
71 1.0% 3%  
72 0.4% 2%  
73 0.2% 2%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.7% 1.2%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations