Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias, 26–30 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 38.9% 36.8–41.2% 36.1–41.8% 35.6–42.4% 34.6–43.5%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 24.0% 22.1–26.0% 21.6–26.6% 21.2–27.1% 20.3–28.1%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.0% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.8% 6.3–10.2% 5.8–10.8%
Chega 1.3% 7.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7% 5.5–9.0% 5.0–9.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.7% 4.7–6.8% 4.5–7.2% 4.3–7.5% 3.8–8.1%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.2% 4.3–6.3% 4.0–6.6% 3.8–6.9% 3.4–7.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.9% 2.5–5.2% 2.2–5.7%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.4% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.5% 0.6–2.9%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.3% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 115 107–121 106–123 105–125 102–129
Partido Social Democrata 79 66 59–75 58–75 56–76 54–78
Bloco de Esquerda 19 16 12–19 11–20 11–21 9–22
Chega 1 11 9–14 8–14 8–16 8–19
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 7–13 6–14 6–14 5–16
Iniciativa Liberal 1 7 6–12 6–12 5–12 4–13
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 4 3–6 2–6 2–8 2–9
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
LIVRE 1 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.7%  
102 0.3% 99.5%  
103 0.8% 99.2%  
104 0.7% 98%  
105 1.3% 98%  
106 5% 96%  
107 3% 92%  
108 3% 89% Last Result
109 9% 86%  
110 6% 77%  
111 3% 71%  
112 3% 68%  
113 9% 64%  
114 4% 55%  
115 7% 51% Median
116 11% 44% Majority
117 3% 33%  
118 5% 30%  
119 10% 26%  
120 0.9% 16%  
121 8% 15%  
122 2% 7%  
123 1.0% 5%  
124 1.0% 4%  
125 1.5% 3%  
126 0.5% 2%  
127 0.5% 1.5%  
128 0.4% 1.0%  
129 0.2% 0.6%  
130 0.2% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.7% 99.9%  
55 1.4% 99.2%  
56 0.7% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 4% 95%  
59 4% 91%  
60 7% 87%  
61 4% 80%  
62 3% 76%  
63 8% 73%  
64 5% 65%  
65 3% 61%  
66 9% 57% Median
67 3% 48%  
68 4% 46%  
69 11% 42%  
70 5% 30%  
71 5% 26%  
72 4% 20%  
73 2% 17%  
74 3% 15%  
75 8% 12%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.8% 1.4%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.2% 99.8%  
9 0.4% 99.6%  
10 0.6% 99.1%  
11 5% 98%  
12 7% 93%  
13 6% 87%  
14 14% 81%  
15 7% 67%  
16 16% 59% Median
17 7% 44%  
18 23% 36%  
19 3% 13% Last Result
20 6% 10%  
21 2% 4%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 0.3% 99.8%  
8 5% 99.6%  
9 5% 94%  
10 11% 89%  
11 35% 78% Median
12 17% 42%  
13 6% 25%  
14 15% 20%  
15 1.3% 4%  
16 0.6% 3%  
17 0.7% 2%  
18 0.6% 2%  
19 0.7% 1.0%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 6% 98%  
7 13% 92%  
8 17% 79%  
9 9% 61%  
10 19% 52% Median
11 5% 33%  
12 13% 28% Last Result
13 7% 14%  
14 5% 7%  
15 1.1% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.8% 100%  
5 2% 99.2%  
6 37% 97%  
7 12% 60% Median
8 13% 48%  
9 13% 35%  
10 10% 22%  
11 2% 12%  
12 10% 10%  
13 0.2% 0.7%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 9% 99.9%  
3 30% 91%  
4 37% 61% Last Result, Median
5 12% 24%  
6 8% 12%  
7 2% 4%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.9% 1.2%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Median
1 18% 19%  
2 1.0% 1.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Median
1 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 139 100% 132–148 131–149 129–150 126–155
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 130 99.9% 123–139 121–139 119–141 118–144
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 124 94% 117–131 115–133 114–135 111–138
Partido Socialista 108 115 44% 107–121 106–123 105–125 102–129
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 67 0% 59–75 58–75 56–76 54–78

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0.4% 99.9%  
126 0.2% 99.6%  
127 0.4% 99.4%  
128 0.4% 99.0%  
129 2% 98.6%  
130 1.3% 97%  
131 2% 95%  
132 4% 94%  
133 8% 90%  
134 5% 81%  
135 3% 76%  
136 5% 74%  
137 5% 69%  
138 5% 64%  
139 10% 58% Last Result
140 5% 48%  
141 2% 43% Median
142 6% 41%  
143 3% 35%  
144 4% 32%  
145 4% 27%  
146 4% 24%  
147 5% 20%  
148 7% 14%  
149 3% 7%  
150 2% 4%  
151 1.0% 2%  
152 0.3% 1.5%  
153 0.3% 1.1%  
154 0.2% 0.8%  
155 0.5% 0.6%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9% Majority
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.7% 99.5%  
119 2% 98.9%  
120 0.9% 97%  
121 2% 96%  
122 3% 94%  
123 4% 91%  
124 6% 88%  
125 8% 82%  
126 4% 74%  
127 11% 70% Last Result
128 3% 60%  
129 5% 57%  
130 3% 52%  
131 8% 48% Median
132 4% 41%  
133 3% 36%  
134 6% 34%  
135 5% 27%  
136 2% 22%  
137 5% 20%  
138 2% 15%  
139 9% 13%  
140 0.8% 4%  
141 0.9% 3%  
142 0.8% 2%  
143 0.9% 2%  
144 0.4% 0.7%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.7%  
111 0.3% 99.6%  
112 0.6% 99.2%  
113 0.7% 98.6%  
114 1.0% 98%  
115 3% 97%  
116 3% 94% Majority
117 8% 91%  
118 5% 83%  
119 3% 78%  
120 5% 75% Last Result
121 3% 70%  
122 6% 67%  
123 6% 62%  
124 6% 55%  
125 8% 50% Median
126 8% 41%  
127 3% 33%  
128 4% 30%  
129 8% 26%  
130 8% 18%  
131 4% 11%  
132 1.3% 6%  
133 0.7% 5%  
134 1.3% 4%  
135 0.8% 3%  
136 0.6% 2%  
137 1.0% 2%  
138 0.4% 0.6%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.7%  
102 0.3% 99.5%  
103 0.8% 99.2%  
104 0.7% 98%  
105 1.3% 98%  
106 5% 96%  
107 3% 92%  
108 3% 89% Last Result
109 9% 86%  
110 6% 77%  
111 3% 71%  
112 3% 68%  
113 9% 64%  
114 4% 55%  
115 7% 51% Median
116 11% 44% Majority
117 3% 33%  
118 5% 30%  
119 10% 26%  
120 0.9% 16%  
121 8% 15%  
122 2% 7%  
123 1.0% 5%  
124 1.0% 4%  
125 1.5% 3%  
126 0.5% 2%  
127 0.5% 1.5%  
128 0.4% 1.0%  
129 0.2% 0.6%  
130 0.2% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.6% 99.9%  
55 1.4% 99.4%  
56 0.7% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 4% 95%  
59 4% 92%  
60 8% 88%  
61 3% 80%  
62 4% 77%  
63 6% 73%  
64 6% 68%  
65 4% 61%  
66 7% 57% Median
67 4% 51%  
68 4% 46%  
69 9% 42%  
70 7% 33%  
71 3% 26%  
72 6% 23%  
73 1.3% 17%  
74 3% 16%  
75 9% 13%  
76 3% 4%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations