Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 8–16 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 34.5% 32.1–37.1% 31.4–37.8% 30.9–38.4% 29.7–39.6%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 22.4% 20.3–24.6% 19.7–25.3% 19.2–25.9% 18.3–27.0%
Chega 1.3% 10.0% 8.6–11.8% 8.2–12.3% 7.9–12.7% 7.3–13.6%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 8.9% 7.6–10.5% 7.2–11.0% 6.9–11.4% 6.3–12.3%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 6.4% 5.3–7.9% 5.0–8.3% 4.7–8.7% 4.2–9.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.9% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7% 4.3–8.1% 3.8–8.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 5.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.0–7.0% 3.7–7.3% 3.3–8.0%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 3.1% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–4.8% 1.7–5.4%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 100 92–109 90–111 88–114 83–116
Partido Social Democrata 79 62 56–68 55–70 52–72 47–75
Chega 1 22 14–25 13–26 12–27 11–30
Bloco de Esquerda 19 17 14–22 13–23 12–24 10–28
Iniciativa Liberal 1 11 6–14 6–14 6–14 6–17
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 6–13 5–14 5–16 5–18
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 8 5–11 4–11 4–12 3–13
CDS–Partido Popular 5 2 1–5 1–5 1–5 0–7
LIVRE 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.5% 99.5%  
85 0.2% 99.0%  
86 0.5% 98.8%  
87 0.6% 98%  
88 0.9% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 0.9% 95%  
91 1.5% 94%  
92 3% 93%  
93 2% 90%  
94 3% 88%  
95 8% 85%  
96 7% 76%  
97 4% 69%  
98 10% 65%  
99 5% 56%  
100 5% 51% Median
101 6% 46%  
102 4% 40%  
103 6% 36%  
104 6% 30%  
105 5% 24%  
106 3% 19%  
107 2% 15%  
108 3% 13% Last Result
109 1.3% 11%  
110 1.1% 9%  
111 4% 8%  
112 0.5% 4%  
113 0.4% 3%  
114 0.8% 3%  
115 2% 2%  
116 0.1% 0.6% Majority
117 0.1% 0.5%  
118 0.1% 0.4%  
119 0.2% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 0.5% 99.5%  
49 0.3% 99.0%  
50 0.2% 98.7%  
51 0.2% 98%  
52 0.9% 98%  
53 0.7% 97%  
54 1.4% 97%  
55 5% 95%  
56 6% 91%  
57 7% 85%  
58 5% 78%  
59 6% 72%  
60 6% 66%  
61 8% 60%  
62 6% 53% Median
63 9% 46%  
64 14% 38%  
65 5% 24%  
66 4% 19%  
67 3% 15%  
68 4% 12%  
69 3% 8%  
70 1.2% 5%  
71 0.8% 4%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.3% 1.0%  
74 0.1% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.4%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.4% 99.9%  
12 2% 98.5%  
13 2% 96%  
14 13% 94%  
15 5% 81%  
16 4% 76%  
17 3% 72%  
18 3% 69%  
19 2% 66%  
20 5% 64%  
21 3% 60%  
22 15% 57% Median
23 5% 42%  
24 18% 37%  
25 9% 19%  
26 6% 10%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.7% 1.5%  
29 0.3% 0.8%  
30 0.2% 0.5%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0.1% 99.8%  
10 0.2% 99.7%  
11 0.3% 99.5%  
12 2% 99.2%  
13 5% 97%  
14 11% 92%  
15 5% 81%  
16 9% 76%  
17 19% 66% Median
18 16% 47%  
19 11% 31% Last Result
20 5% 21%  
21 4% 16%  
22 6% 12%  
23 4% 7%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.3% 1.1%  
26 0.2% 0.8%  
27 0.1% 0.6%  
28 0.2% 0.5%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.4% 100%  
6 12% 99.5%  
7 2% 88%  
8 11% 86%  
9 13% 75%  
10 9% 62%  
11 12% 53% Median
12 18% 41%  
13 8% 23%  
14 13% 15%  
15 0.9% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.8%  
17 0.3% 0.6%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.2% 99.9%  
5 7% 99.7%  
6 10% 93%  
7 10% 82%  
8 13% 72%  
9 4% 59%  
10 18% 55% Median
11 12% 37%  
12 5% 25% Last Result
13 12% 20%  
14 5% 8%  
15 0.9% 3%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.2% 1.0%  
18 0.6% 0.8%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 1.4% 99.8%  
4 6% 98% Last Result
5 20% 93%  
6 11% 72%  
7 6% 62%  
8 16% 56% Median
9 24% 40%  
10 3% 15%  
11 8% 12%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.5% 0.9%  
14 0.2% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 18% 98%  
2 37% 79% Median
3 29% 43%  
4 3% 14%  
5 10% 10% Last Result
6 0.2% 0.8%  
7 0.3% 0.6%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Median
1 19% 19% Last Result
2 0.1% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 127 97% 119–136 118–139 115–140 109–146
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 117 61% 111–127 109–129 104–131 100–134
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 109 19% 101–118 100–121 97–123 94–127
Partido Socialista 108 100 0.6% 92–109 90–111 88–114 83–116
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 64 0% 58–70 57–72 54–74 50–78

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0.1% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.8%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.3% 99.7%  
110 0.1% 99.5%  
111 0.1% 99.3%  
112 0.1% 99.2%  
113 0.3% 99.1%  
114 1.0% 98.8%  
115 1.2% 98%  
116 0.8% 97% Majority
117 0.7% 96%  
118 0.9% 95%  
119 6% 94%  
120 2% 88%  
121 4% 87%  
122 3% 83%  
123 9% 80%  
124 11% 71%  
125 5% 60%  
126 5% 55%  
127 4% 50% Median
128 7% 46%  
129 3% 39%  
130 4% 36%  
131 8% 31%  
132 3% 23%  
133 4% 21%  
134 2% 17%  
135 2% 15%  
136 3% 13%  
137 2% 10%  
138 2% 8%  
139 1.2% 5% Last Result
140 2% 4%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.5% 2%  
143 0.3% 1.2%  
144 0.2% 0.9%  
145 0.1% 0.7%  
146 0.3% 0.6%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0.1% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.7%  
100 0.2% 99.5%  
101 0.3% 99.3%  
102 0.8% 99.0%  
103 0.5% 98%  
104 0.7% 98%  
105 0.3% 97%  
106 0.6% 97%  
107 0.3% 96%  
108 0.7% 96%  
109 2% 95%  
110 2% 93%  
111 8% 91%  
112 4% 83%  
113 8% 79%  
114 3% 71%  
115 7% 68%  
116 8% 61% Majority
117 6% 53% Median
118 7% 47%  
119 4% 40%  
120 4% 36%  
121 6% 32%  
122 3% 26%  
123 3% 24%  
124 3% 20%  
125 4% 18%  
126 3% 13%  
127 2% 11% Last Result
128 2% 8%  
129 1.2% 6%  
130 2% 5%  
131 1.0% 3%  
132 0.1% 2%  
133 0.4% 1.5%  
134 0.5% 1.0%  
135 0.1% 0.5%  
136 0.3% 0.4%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.1% 99.7%  
93 0.1% 99.7%  
94 0.2% 99.6%  
95 0.5% 99.3%  
96 0.4% 98.8%  
97 2% 98%  
98 0.5% 97%  
99 0.9% 96%  
100 3% 95%  
101 4% 93%  
102 3% 88%  
103 1.5% 86%  
104 3% 84%  
105 2% 81%  
106 12% 79%  
107 3% 67%  
108 9% 64%  
109 6% 54%  
110 6% 48% Median
111 6% 43%  
112 5% 37%  
113 5% 32%  
114 4% 27%  
115 4% 23%  
116 3% 19% Majority
117 4% 16%  
118 4% 13%  
119 1.0% 9%  
120 0.6% 8% Last Result
121 3% 7%  
122 1.0% 4%  
123 2% 3%  
124 0.3% 2%  
125 0.5% 1.2%  
126 0.1% 0.7%  
127 0.1% 0.6%  
128 0.1% 0.5%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.5% 99.5%  
85 0.2% 99.0%  
86 0.5% 98.8%  
87 0.6% 98%  
88 0.9% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 0.9% 95%  
91 1.5% 94%  
92 3% 93%  
93 2% 90%  
94 3% 88%  
95 8% 85%  
96 7% 76%  
97 4% 69%  
98 10% 65%  
99 5% 56%  
100 5% 51% Median
101 6% 46%  
102 4% 40%  
103 6% 36%  
104 6% 30%  
105 5% 24%  
106 3% 19%  
107 2% 15%  
108 3% 13% Last Result
109 1.3% 11%  
110 1.1% 9%  
111 4% 8%  
112 0.5% 4%  
113 0.4% 3%  
114 0.8% 3%  
115 2% 2%  
116 0.1% 0.6% Majority
117 0.1% 0.5%  
118 0.1% 0.4%  
119 0.2% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.5%  
51 0.3% 99.3%  
52 0.3% 99.0%  
53 0.5% 98.7%  
54 0.8% 98%  
55 0.8% 97%  
56 1.1% 97%  
57 5% 95%  
58 5% 91%  
59 4% 86%  
60 7% 82%  
61 5% 75%  
62 6% 70%  
63 7% 64%  
64 8% 58% Median
65 5% 49%  
66 15% 44%  
67 9% 29%  
68 4% 20%  
69 3% 16%  
70 4% 13%  
71 2% 9%  
72 1.4% 6%  
73 2% 5%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.1% 1.5%  
76 0.5% 1.4%  
77 0.3% 0.9%  
78 0.1% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations