Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 7–16 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 34.8% 32.3–37.3% 31.7–38.0% 31.1–38.6% 29.9–39.9%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 23.4% 21.3–25.7% 20.7–26.4% 20.2–26.9% 19.2–28.1%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 9.1% 7.7–10.7% 7.3–11.2% 7.0–11.6% 6.4–12.5%
Chega 1.3% 9.1% 7.7–10.7% 7.3–11.2% 7.0–11.6% 6.4–12.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 6.8% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.7% 5.0–9.0% 4.5–9.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 4.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–6.1% 3.1–6.4% 2.7–7.1%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 3.1% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–4.8% 1.7–5.4%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.8% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.2% 1.8–4.5% 1.5–5.0%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 103 97–111 94–113 91–115 86–118
Partido Social Democrata 79 66 59–71 57–74 57–76 53–81
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 15–22 13–24 12–25 11–28
Chega 1 16 13–23 11–25 11–26 11–28
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 13 9–15 8–18 7–18 6–20
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 6 4–9 3–10 3–11 2–11
Iniciativa Liberal 1 4 3–6 3–6 2–6 1–8
CDS–Partido Popular 5 2 1–3 1–4 1–5 0–5
LIVRE 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8%  
86 0.2% 99.7%  
87 0.3% 99.4%  
88 0.4% 99.1%  
89 0.3% 98.7%  
90 0.7% 98%  
91 0.8% 98%  
92 0.6% 97%  
93 0.7% 96%  
94 0.8% 96%  
95 3% 95%  
96 2% 92%  
97 3% 90%  
98 4% 87%  
99 7% 83%  
100 5% 76%  
101 2% 71%  
102 12% 68%  
103 9% 57% Median
104 6% 48%  
105 3% 42%  
106 9% 39%  
107 9% 30%  
108 4% 21% Last Result
109 4% 17%  
110 2% 13%  
111 3% 10%  
112 1.0% 8%  
113 2% 7%  
114 0.5% 4%  
115 2% 4%  
116 0.8% 2% Majority
117 0.5% 1.1%  
118 0.2% 0.7%  
119 0.2% 0.5%  
120 0.1% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.7%  
54 0.2% 99.4%  
55 0.4% 99.1%  
56 0.9% 98.7%  
57 3% 98%  
58 2% 95%  
59 5% 93%  
60 3% 88%  
61 2% 85%  
62 4% 83%  
63 11% 80%  
64 5% 69%  
65 12% 64%  
66 8% 51% Median
67 6% 44%  
68 7% 38%  
69 8% 31%  
70 10% 22%  
71 4% 13%  
72 2% 9%  
73 1.3% 7%  
74 0.6% 6%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.0% 3%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.3% 1.3%  
79 0.2% 1.0% Last Result
80 0.3% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 0.4% 99.8%  
12 2% 99.4%  
13 3% 97%  
14 4% 94%  
15 3% 90%  
16 8% 88%  
17 6% 79%  
18 30% 74% Median
19 14% 44% Last Result
20 2% 30%  
21 11% 27%  
22 6% 16%  
23 3% 10%  
24 4% 7%  
25 1.0% 3%  
26 0.7% 2%  
27 0.4% 1.3%  
28 0.4% 0.9%  
29 0.1% 0.5%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 6% 99.8%  
12 1.4% 93%  
13 8% 92%  
14 22% 84%  
15 3% 62%  
16 12% 59% Median
17 10% 48%  
18 4% 38%  
19 4% 33%  
20 10% 30%  
21 6% 20%  
22 2% 14%  
23 3% 12%  
24 4% 9%  
25 2% 6%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.6% 1.1%  
28 0.3% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 0.6% 99.8%  
7 3% 99.2%  
8 3% 96%  
9 3% 93%  
10 11% 90%  
11 9% 79%  
12 17% 70% Last Result
13 15% 53% Median
14 19% 38%  
15 9% 19%  
16 2% 10%  
17 2% 8%  
18 5% 6%  
19 0.5% 1.0%  
20 0.2% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.1% 100%  
3 5% 98.9%  
4 20% 94% Last Result
5 18% 74%  
6 24% 56% Median
7 5% 32%  
8 10% 27%  
9 12% 17%  
10 1.3% 5%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100% Last Result
2 2% 99.5%  
3 35% 97%  
4 29% 62% Median
5 21% 34%  
6 12% 13%  
7 0.3% 0.9%  
8 0.2% 0.6%  
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 35% 98%  
2 38% 63% Median
3 17% 25%  
4 4% 8%  
5 4% 4% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.2%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Median
1 23% 23% Last Result
2 0.2% 0.3%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 134 99.8% 128–143 124–144 121–146 118–149
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 122 89% 115–130 112–131 109–133 105–136
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 116 53% 109–123 106–126 103–128 99–131
Partido Socialista 108 103 2% 97–111 94–113 91–115 86–118
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 67 0% 61–73 59–77 58–78 54–83

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8% Majority
117 0.1% 99.7%  
118 0.4% 99.6%  
119 0.4% 99.3%  
120 0.7% 98.9%  
121 1.4% 98%  
122 0.7% 97%  
123 0.9% 96%  
124 0.5% 95%  
125 1.2% 95%  
126 2% 94%  
127 0.9% 92%  
128 2% 91%  
129 8% 89%  
130 3% 81%  
131 5% 78%  
132 13% 74%  
133 8% 60%  
134 6% 52% Median
135 3% 46%  
136 7% 43%  
137 0.8% 36%  
138 6% 35%  
139 2% 29% Last Result
140 7% 27%  
141 6% 20%  
142 3% 13%  
143 2% 11%  
144 4% 8%  
145 1.1% 4%  
146 1.2% 3%  
147 0.8% 2%  
148 0.2% 1.2%  
149 0.5% 1.0%  
150 0.2% 0.4%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.8%  
104 0.1% 99.7%  
105 0.2% 99.7%  
106 0.4% 99.4%  
107 0.9% 99.0%  
108 0.4% 98%  
109 0.4% 98%  
110 1.0% 97%  
111 0.6% 96%  
112 1.2% 96%  
113 2% 95%  
114 1.0% 93%  
115 3% 92%  
116 2% 89% Majority
117 3% 87%  
118 11% 84%  
119 4% 73%  
120 13% 69%  
121 5% 56% Median
122 6% 51%  
123 4% 44%  
124 7% 40%  
125 5% 33%  
126 4% 28%  
127 4% 25% Last Result
128 8% 21%  
129 2% 14%  
130 2% 12%  
131 5% 10%  
132 2% 5%  
133 0.7% 3%  
134 0.4% 2%  
135 0.4% 2%  
136 0.9% 1.4%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.1% 99.7%  
99 0.2% 99.6%  
100 0.3% 99.4%  
101 0.3% 99.1%  
102 0.7% 98.8%  
103 1.1% 98%  
104 0.5% 97%  
105 0.8% 96%  
106 2% 96%  
107 2% 93%  
108 1.4% 92%  
109 1.3% 90%  
110 7% 89%  
111 3% 82%  
112 4% 79%  
113 6% 76%  
114 8% 70%  
115 9% 62%  
116 7% 53% Median, Majority
117 6% 46%  
118 4% 40%  
119 5% 36%  
120 8% 31% Last Result
121 4% 23%  
122 6% 18%  
123 4% 12%  
124 0.6% 8%  
125 2% 8%  
126 2% 6%  
127 0.8% 4%  
128 1.3% 3%  
129 0.9% 2%  
130 0.3% 1.0%  
131 0.3% 0.7%  
132 0.1% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8%  
86 0.2% 99.7%  
87 0.3% 99.4%  
88 0.4% 99.1%  
89 0.3% 98.7%  
90 0.7% 98%  
91 0.8% 98%  
92 0.6% 97%  
93 0.7% 96%  
94 0.8% 96%  
95 3% 95%  
96 2% 92%  
97 3% 90%  
98 4% 87%  
99 7% 83%  
100 5% 76%  
101 2% 71%  
102 12% 68%  
103 9% 57% Median
104 6% 48%  
105 3% 42%  
106 9% 39%  
107 9% 30%  
108 4% 21% Last Result
109 4% 17%  
110 2% 13%  
111 3% 10%  
112 1.0% 8%  
113 2% 7%  
114 0.5% 4%  
115 2% 4%  
116 0.8% 2% Majority
117 0.5% 1.1%  
118 0.2% 0.7%  
119 0.2% 0.5%  
120 0.1% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.2% 99.5%  
56 0.2% 99.3%  
57 0.5% 99.1%  
58 3% 98.6%  
59 2% 96%  
60 4% 95%  
61 3% 91%  
62 3% 88%  
63 2% 86%  
64 7% 83%  
65 7% 77%  
66 9% 70%  
67 11% 60%  
68 5% 49% Median
69 5% 45%  
70 8% 40%  
71 9% 32%  
72 9% 23%  
73 4% 14%  
74 2% 10%  
75 2% 8%  
76 1.0% 6%  
77 1.3% 5%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.3% 1.3%  
81 0.1% 1.0%  
82 0.3% 0.9%  
83 0.2% 0.6%  
84 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations