Opinion Poll by Intercampus, 13–20 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 34.6% 32.2–37.2% 31.6–37.9% 31.0–38.5% 29.8–39.7%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 25.2% 23.0–27.5% 22.4–28.2% 21.9–28.8% 20.9–29.9%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 9.2% 7.8–10.8% 7.4–11.3% 7.1–11.7% 6.5–12.5%
Chega 1.3% 7.5% 6.3–9.1% 6.0–9.5% 5.7–9.9% 5.2–10.7%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 6.0% 5.0–7.5% 4.7–7.9% 4.4–8.2% 3.9–9.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.4% 4.4–6.8% 4.1–7.1% 3.9–7.5% 3.4–8.2%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.4–4.9% 2.3–5.2% 1.9–5.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.6% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.8% 0.9–3.0% 0.7–3.5%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 104 96–109 94–111 91–114 85–118
Partido Social Democrata 79 71 65–81 64–83 63–83 57–87
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 15–22 14–23 13–26 11–28
Chega 1 11 11–17 10–18 9–20 8–23
Iniciativa Liberal 1 11 7–14 6–14 6–14 5–16
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 6–13 6–14 6–15 5–17
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 4 2–5 2–6 2–7 2–9
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–3
LIVRE 1 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.1% 99.7%  
85 0.1% 99.5%  
86 0.3% 99.4%  
87 0.2% 99.2%  
88 0.3% 99.0%  
89 0.5% 98.8%  
90 0.7% 98%  
91 0.2% 98%  
92 0.5% 97%  
93 1.5% 97%  
94 3% 95%  
95 1.2% 93%  
96 1.4% 91%  
97 6% 90%  
98 11% 84%  
99 2% 73%  
100 2% 72%  
101 8% 70%  
102 4% 62%  
103 6% 58%  
104 7% 52% Median
105 6% 45%  
106 4% 39%  
107 6% 35%  
108 5% 30% Last Result
109 15% 25%  
110 2% 10%  
111 3% 8%  
112 0.8% 5%  
113 1.3% 4%  
114 0.9% 3%  
115 0.5% 2%  
116 0.3% 1.4% Majority
117 0.6% 1.1%  
118 0.1% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.4%  
120 0.2% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 0.2% 99.4%  
59 0.5% 99.2%  
60 0.1% 98.8%  
61 0.2% 98.7%  
62 0.3% 98%  
63 1.0% 98%  
64 4% 97%  
65 9% 93%  
66 12% 84%  
67 16% 73%  
68 3% 57%  
69 2% 54%  
70 2% 53%  
71 4% 51% Median
72 4% 47%  
73 13% 43%  
74 8% 30%  
75 4% 22%  
76 4% 18%  
77 0.8% 14%  
78 0.9% 13%  
79 0.6% 12% Last Result
80 0.7% 11%  
81 4% 11%  
82 0.9% 7%  
83 3% 6%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.4% 1.5%  
86 0.4% 1.1%  
87 0.3% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.4%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.7% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.2%  
13 0.7% 98%  
14 4% 97%  
15 6% 94%  
16 11% 88%  
17 8% 77%  
18 29% 70% Median
19 8% 41% Last Result
20 8% 33%  
21 14% 25%  
22 3% 10%  
23 3% 7%  
24 0.4% 4%  
25 0.9% 4%  
26 1.4% 3%  
27 0.6% 1.5%  
28 0.5% 0.8%  
29 0.1% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 1.3% 99.8%  
9 3% 98%  
10 4% 96%  
11 42% 91% Median
12 4% 50%  
13 8% 46%  
14 20% 38%  
15 6% 18%  
16 1.2% 12%  
17 1.4% 11%  
18 5% 10%  
19 1.3% 4%  
20 0.8% 3%  
21 0.9% 2%  
22 0.5% 1.4%  
23 0.5% 1.0%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.5% 99.9%  
6 9% 99.4%  
7 4% 91%  
8 4% 86%  
9 8% 83%  
10 22% 74%  
11 3% 52% Median
12 33% 49%  
13 2% 17%  
14 13% 15%  
15 1.1% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.3%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.3% 99.9%  
5 2% 99.6%  
6 19% 98%  
7 15% 79%  
8 6% 64%  
9 2% 58%  
10 19% 56% Median
11 7% 36%  
12 18% 30% Last Result
13 3% 12%  
14 6% 9%  
15 1.2% 3%  
16 0.8% 1.4%  
17 0.2% 0.6%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 13% 99.5%  
3 26% 86%  
4 40% 60% Last Result, Median
5 11% 20%  
6 6% 9%  
7 0.9% 3%  
8 0.6% 2%  
9 1.3% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.4%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Median
1 25% 30%  
2 4% 5%  
3 1.0% 1.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Median
1 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 131 99.1% 123–139 120–140 118–141 113–145
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 122 85% 113–129 112–131 110–133 104–137
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 113 35% 104–121 102–122 100–123 94–127
Partido Socialista 108 104 1.4% 96–109 94–111 91–114 85–118
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 71 0% 65–82 65–83 64–84 58–87

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0.1% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.6%  
113 0.1% 99.5%  
114 0.3% 99.4%  
115 0.1% 99.2%  
116 0.4% 99.1% Majority
117 1.1% 98.7%  
118 0.4% 98%  
119 0.9% 97%  
120 2% 96%  
121 0.7% 94%  
122 3% 93%  
123 2% 90%  
124 3% 89%  
125 4% 85%  
126 3% 82%  
127 4% 79%  
128 8% 75%  
129 10% 67%  
130 5% 58%  
131 4% 52%  
132 4% 48% Median
133 6% 44%  
134 2% 38%  
135 6% 36%  
136 4% 30%  
137 5% 27%  
138 4% 22%  
139 13% 18% Last Result
140 0.8% 6%  
141 3% 5%  
142 0.6% 2%  
143 0.7% 2%  
144 0.4% 1.1%  
145 0.2% 0.7%  
146 0.1% 0.5%  
147 0.2% 0.4%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0.1% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.1% 99.6%  
104 0.1% 99.5%  
105 0.2% 99.4%  
106 0.3% 99.1%  
107 0.6% 98.9%  
108 0.2% 98%  
109 0.4% 98%  
110 0.8% 98%  
111 1.5% 97%  
112 2% 95%  
113 5% 94%  
114 1.3% 89%  
115 2% 88%  
116 5% 85% Majority
117 3% 81%  
118 7% 77%  
119 3% 70%  
120 4% 68%  
121 7% 63%  
122 12% 56% Median
123 4% 44%  
124 2% 40%  
125 6% 37%  
126 2% 31%  
127 15% 29% Last Result
128 2% 14%  
129 3% 12%  
130 3% 9%  
131 2% 6%  
132 0.8% 4%  
133 1.2% 3%  
134 0.2% 2%  
135 0.3% 1.4%  
136 0.1% 1.1%  
137 0.6% 1.0%  
138 0.2% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.1% 99.5%  
95 0.1% 99.5%  
96 0.2% 99.4%  
97 0.5% 99.2%  
98 0.4% 98.7%  
99 0.3% 98%  
100 1.2% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 1.2% 95%  
103 1.4% 94%  
104 3% 93%  
105 3% 90%  
106 3% 87%  
107 2% 84%  
108 10% 82%  
109 6% 73%  
110 2% 67%  
111 6% 65%  
112 6% 59%  
113 7% 53%  
114 7% 46% Median
115 4% 39%  
116 3% 35% Majority
117 6% 31%  
118 3% 26%  
119 4% 22%  
120 1.2% 18% Last Result
121 12% 17%  
122 1.3% 5%  
123 2% 4%  
124 0.8% 2%  
125 0.1% 1.0%  
126 0.4% 0.9%  
127 0.1% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.1% 99.7%  
85 0.1% 99.5%  
86 0.3% 99.4%  
87 0.2% 99.2%  
88 0.3% 99.0%  
89 0.5% 98.8%  
90 0.7% 98%  
91 0.2% 98%  
92 0.5% 97%  
93 1.5% 97%  
94 3% 95%  
95 1.2% 93%  
96 1.4% 91%  
97 6% 90%  
98 11% 84%  
99 2% 73%  
100 2% 72%  
101 8% 70%  
102 4% 62%  
103 6% 58%  
104 7% 52% Median
105 6% 45%  
106 4% 39%  
107 6% 35%  
108 5% 30% Last Result
109 15% 25%  
110 2% 10%  
111 3% 8%  
112 0.8% 5%  
113 1.3% 4%  
114 0.9% 3%  
115 0.5% 2%  
116 0.3% 1.4% Majority
117 0.6% 1.1%  
118 0.1% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.4%  
120 0.2% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.5%  
59 0.5% 99.3%  
60 0.1% 98.8%  
61 0.1% 98.7%  
62 0.2% 98.6%  
63 0.7% 98%  
64 2% 98%  
65 10% 96%  
66 9% 86%  
67 18% 77%  
68 5% 60%  
69 1.4% 55%  
70 1.2% 53%  
71 3% 52% Median
72 4% 50%  
73 13% 45%  
74 7% 32%  
75 4% 25%  
76 6% 21%  
77 2% 15%  
78 0.8% 13%  
79 0.3% 12%  
80 0.5% 12%  
81 1.3% 12%  
82 4% 10%  
83 3% 7%  
84 2% 4% Last Result
85 0.7% 2%  
86 0.2% 1.2%  
87 0.5% 1.0%  
88 0.1% 0.5%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations