Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for TVI, 10–19 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 41.4% 38.9–44.0% 38.1–44.7% 37.5–45.3% 36.3–46.6%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 25.1% 23.0–27.5% 22.4–28.2% 21.8–28.7% 20.8–29.9%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 7.1% 5.9–8.6% 5.6–9.0% 5.3–9.4% 4.8–10.2%
Chega 1.3% 7.1% 5.9–8.6% 5.6–9.0% 5.3–9.4% 4.8–10.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.4% 4.4–6.8% 4.1–7.2% 3.9–7.5% 3.4–8.2%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 4.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.4% 3.3–6.8% 2.9–7.4%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.0% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.4% 0.9–3.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.1–3.0% 1.0–3.2% 0.8–3.7%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.3% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.1–1.2% 0.0–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 120 111–128 109–129 107–132 105–136
Partido Social Democrata 79 67 61–75 58–77 56–79 54–83
Bloco de Esquerda 19 12 9–17 7–18 7–18 7–21
Chega 1 11 8–14 8–16 8–18 6–20
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 5–13 5–14 5–15 4–16
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 5–10 5–11 4–12 3–14
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–4
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4
LIVRE 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.2% 99.6%  
106 0.9% 99.4%  
107 1.2% 98%  
108 1.2% 97% Last Result
109 2% 96%  
110 3% 94%  
111 3% 91%  
112 1.5% 88%  
113 3% 87%  
114 4% 84%  
115 7% 79%  
116 3% 73% Majority
117 5% 69%  
118 6% 64%  
119 6% 58%  
120 5% 52% Median
121 5% 47%  
122 3% 41%  
123 6% 38%  
124 2% 32%  
125 5% 29%  
126 2% 24%  
127 8% 22%  
128 7% 13%  
129 1.4% 6%  
130 1.3% 5%  
131 0.7% 3%  
132 0.4% 3%  
133 0.8% 2%  
134 0.6% 1.3%  
135 0.1% 0.7%  
136 0.1% 0.6%  
137 0.3% 0.4%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.6% 99.9%  
55 1.5% 99.4%  
56 0.8% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 0.7% 95%  
59 1.4% 94%  
60 1.3% 93%  
61 6% 92%  
62 4% 86%  
63 8% 82%  
64 4% 74%  
65 4% 70%  
66 10% 66%  
67 8% 57% Median
68 6% 49%  
69 4% 43%  
70 5% 39%  
71 4% 34%  
72 8% 30%  
73 4% 21%  
74 5% 18%  
75 3% 13%  
76 4% 10%  
77 2% 6%  
78 1.1% 4%  
79 1.0% 3% Last Result
80 0.4% 2%  
81 0.6% 1.5%  
82 0.2% 0.9%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 6% 99.9%  
8 2% 94%  
9 7% 92%  
10 8% 85%  
11 16% 77%  
12 12% 61% Median
13 9% 50%  
14 14% 41%  
15 9% 27%  
16 7% 17%  
17 2% 11%  
18 6% 8%  
19 1.0% 2% Last Result
20 0.5% 1.2%  
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.3% 99.9%  
6 0.4% 99.5%  
7 0.3% 99.1%  
8 10% 98.8%  
9 2% 89%  
10 8% 87%  
11 39% 79% Median
12 6% 40%  
13 8% 34%  
14 16% 25%  
15 2% 9%  
16 2% 7%  
17 2% 5%  
18 0.6% 3%  
19 1.1% 2%  
20 0.8% 1.2%  
21 0.1% 0.4%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.5% 99.8%  
5 16% 99.4%  
6 8% 83%  
7 18% 75%  
8 8% 57% Median
9 9% 49%  
10 15% 40%  
11 3% 25%  
12 7% 22% Last Result
13 8% 15%  
14 4% 7%  
15 2% 4%  
16 0.9% 1.3%  
17 0.2% 0.4%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 4% 99.4%  
5 13% 95%  
6 48% 82% Median
7 10% 34%  
8 4% 24%  
9 3% 20%  
10 9% 16%  
11 3% 8%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.3% 0.8%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100%  
1 44% 62% Median
2 15% 18%  
3 2% 3%  
4 0.4% 0.8%  
5 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100%  
1 36% 76% Median
2 33% 40%  
3 5% 7%  
4 1.4% 2% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 5% 5% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 141 100% 133–150 131–152 129–153 125–156
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 132 99.8% 124–141 122–143 120–145 118–147
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 128 98% 120–137 118–139 117–140 112–144
Partido Socialista 108 120 73% 111–128 109–129 107–132 105–136
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 68 0% 62–76 59–78 57–80 55–84

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0.3% 99.8%  
126 0.5% 99.5%  
127 0.3% 98.9%  
128 0.6% 98.6%  
129 1.5% 98%  
130 0.9% 97%  
131 1.2% 96%  
132 2% 95%  
133 3% 93%  
134 3% 90%  
135 6% 87%  
136 5% 81%  
137 5% 76%  
138 7% 71%  
139 6% 64% Last Result
140 6% 58% Median
141 5% 52%  
142 3% 48%  
143 4% 45%  
144 2% 41%  
145 7% 39%  
146 6% 32%  
147 9% 26%  
148 1.4% 16%  
149 5% 15%  
150 3% 10%  
151 2% 8%  
152 2% 5%  
153 1.4% 3%  
154 0.7% 2%  
155 0.5% 1.4%  
156 0.4% 0.9%  
157 0.2% 0.4%  
158 0.2% 0.3%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8% Majority
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.3% 99.5%  
119 0.6% 99.2%  
120 1.3% 98.6%  
121 2% 97%  
122 1.3% 96%  
123 2% 94%  
124 4% 93%  
125 3% 89%  
126 4% 85%  
127 5% 82% Last Result
128 8% 76%  
129 7% 69%  
130 4% 62%  
131 5% 58%  
132 5% 54% Median
133 4% 49%  
134 9% 45%  
135 4% 37%  
136 2% 33%  
137 3% 31%  
138 2% 28%  
139 3% 26%  
140 8% 23%  
141 6% 15%  
142 2% 8%  
143 2% 7%  
144 1.1% 4%  
145 0.8% 3%  
146 1.2% 2%  
147 0.8% 1.3%  
148 0.2% 0.5%  
149 0.2% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0.1% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.5% 99.8%  
113 0.6% 99.3%  
114 0.3% 98.7%  
115 0.6% 98%  
116 0.2% 98% Majority
117 0.4% 98%  
118 2% 97%  
119 2% 95%  
120 3% 92% Last Result
121 3% 89%  
122 5% 86%  
123 3% 81%  
124 3% 78%  
125 4% 74%  
126 5% 71%  
127 8% 66%  
128 10% 58% Median
129 3% 47%  
130 2% 45%  
131 4% 42%  
132 9% 38%  
133 6% 30%  
134 3% 23%  
135 2% 20%  
136 5% 18%  
137 5% 13%  
138 3% 8%  
139 2% 5%  
140 1.2% 3%  
141 0.6% 2%  
142 0.8% 2%  
143 0.2% 0.9%  
144 0.4% 0.6%  
145 0% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.2% 99.6%  
106 0.9% 99.4%  
107 1.2% 98%  
108 1.2% 97% Last Result
109 2% 96%  
110 3% 94%  
111 3% 91%  
112 1.5% 88%  
113 3% 87%  
114 4% 84%  
115 7% 79%  
116 3% 73% Majority
117 5% 69%  
118 6% 64%  
119 6% 58%  
120 5% 52% Median
121 5% 47%  
122 3% 41%  
123 6% 38%  
124 2% 32%  
125 5% 29%  
126 2% 24%  
127 8% 22%  
128 7% 13%  
129 1.4% 6%  
130 1.3% 5%  
131 0.7% 3%  
132 0.4% 3%  
133 0.8% 2%  
134 0.6% 1.3%  
135 0.1% 0.7%  
136 0.1% 0.6%  
137 0.3% 0.4%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.4% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.6%  
56 1.3% 99.2%  
57 2% 98%  
58 1.0% 96%  
59 1.1% 95%  
60 0.8% 94%  
61 2% 93%  
62 7% 91%  
63 2% 84%  
64 7% 82%  
65 5% 75%  
66 5% 70%  
67 14% 65%  
68 2% 51% Median
69 5% 48%  
70 5% 43%  
71 3% 38%  
72 5% 35%  
73 6% 30%  
74 9% 24%  
75 3% 15%  
76 5% 12%  
77 1.3% 7%  
78 2% 6%  
79 1.0% 4%  
80 0.8% 3%  
81 0.4% 2%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
85 0.3% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations