Opinion Poll by Intercampus for CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 14–23 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 36.8% 34.3–39.3% 33.6–40.1% 33.0–40.7% 31.9–41.9%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 24.6% 22.5–27.0% 21.9–27.6% 21.4–28.2% 20.4–29.4%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 9.7% 8.3–11.4% 7.9–11.9% 7.6–12.3% 7.0–13.2%
Chega 1.3% 8.5% 7.2–10.2% 6.9–10.6% 6.6–11.0% 6.0–11.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.4% 4.4–6.8% 4.1–7.2% 3.9–7.5% 3.4–8.2%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.4% 4.4–6.8% 4.1–7.2% 3.9–7.5% 3.4–8.2%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.3% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.7% 2.1–5.0% 1.8–5.6%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.5% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.6–3.3%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.3% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.1–1.2% 0.0–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 107 101–117 98–117 96–121 92–122
Partido Social Democrata 79 66 60–75 58–77 57–79 55–82
Bloco de Esquerda 19 19 16–23 15–25 14–27 12–30
Chega 1 14 11–20 11–23 11–24 9–26
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 6–13 5–14 5–15 4–16
Iniciativa Liberal 1 8 6–12 6–12 5–13 4–14
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–5 2–6 2–6 1–9
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
LIVRE 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.8%  
90 0.1% 99.7%  
91 0.1% 99.6%  
92 0.2% 99.5%  
93 0.2% 99.3%  
94 0.5% 99.2%  
95 0.6% 98.6%  
96 0.7% 98%  
97 1.3% 97%  
98 2% 96%  
99 2% 94%  
100 2% 92%  
101 4% 91%  
102 10% 87%  
103 6% 77%  
104 3% 71%  
105 10% 68%  
106 7% 57%  
107 4% 51% Median
108 6% 46% Last Result
109 8% 40%  
110 5% 32%  
111 3% 27%  
112 6% 23%  
113 2% 18%  
114 2% 15%  
115 2% 14%  
116 0.4% 12% Majority
117 7% 12%  
118 0.4% 4%  
119 0.5% 4%  
120 0.8% 4%  
121 2% 3%  
122 0.3% 0.7%  
123 0.1% 0.4%  
124 0.2% 0.4%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.7%  
56 0.7% 99.3%  
57 3% 98.7%  
58 1.0% 95%  
59 4% 95%  
60 2% 91%  
61 2% 89%  
62 4% 87%  
63 7% 83%  
64 5% 76%  
65 9% 71%  
66 13% 62% Median
67 6% 49%  
68 9% 42%  
69 7% 33%  
70 4% 26%  
71 5% 22%  
72 2% 17%  
73 2% 15%  
74 2% 13%  
75 4% 11%  
76 0.8% 7%  
77 2% 6%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.4% 3% Last Result
80 0.3% 1.1%  
81 0.2% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.7%  
13 0.5% 99.3%  
14 3% 98.8%  
15 3% 95%  
16 6% 92%  
17 10% 86%  
18 20% 77%  
19 12% 57% Last Result, Median
20 6% 45%  
21 14% 38%  
22 12% 24%  
23 4% 12%  
24 2% 8%  
25 1.4% 6%  
26 1.2% 4%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.3% 1.2%  
29 0.3% 1.0%  
30 0.5% 0.6%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.8%  
10 0.9% 99.3%  
11 17% 98%  
12 5% 82%  
13 5% 77%  
14 24% 72% Median
15 6% 48%  
16 7% 43%  
17 4% 35%  
18 12% 31%  
19 7% 19%  
20 4% 12%  
21 2% 8%  
22 0.8% 6%  
23 1.0% 5%  
24 2% 4%  
25 0.9% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.8%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.9% 99.8%  
5 6% 98.9%  
6 14% 93%  
7 17% 78%  
8 12% 62% Median
9 10% 50%  
10 18% 40%  
11 6% 22%  
12 4% 16% Last Result
13 5% 12%  
14 5% 7%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.5% 0.9%  
17 0.2% 0.4%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 1.3% 99.9%  
5 3% 98.6%  
6 36% 96%  
7 6% 60%  
8 10% 54% Median
9 11% 44%  
10 11% 33%  
11 8% 22%  
12 11% 14%  
13 1.1% 3%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 28% 98%  
3 21% 70% Median
4 35% 49% Last Result
5 6% 14%  
6 5% 8%  
7 0.3% 2%  
8 0.8% 2%  
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Median
1 23% 26%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Median
1 5% 5% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 136 99.9% 126–146 125–147 124–148 119–150
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 126 97% 119–138 117–138 115–139 111–140
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 115 50% 109–125 107–127 104–129 100–131
Partido Socialista 108 107 12% 101–117 98–117 96–121 92–122
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 67 0% 60–75 58–78 57–79 55–82

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9% Majority
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.1% 99.7%  
119 0.2% 99.7%  
120 0.1% 99.5%  
121 0.5% 99.4%  
122 0.8% 98.9%  
123 0.5% 98%  
124 1.3% 98%  
125 2% 96%  
126 5% 94%  
127 1.5% 90%  
128 2% 88%  
129 2% 86%  
130 4% 84%  
131 4% 79%  
132 5% 76%  
133 5% 71%  
134 9% 66% Median
135 5% 57%  
136 10% 52%  
137 11% 43%  
138 4% 31%  
139 6% 27% Last Result
140 3% 21%  
141 2% 19%  
142 0.7% 16%  
143 1.3% 16%  
144 1.2% 14%  
145 1.3% 13%  
146 5% 12%  
147 3% 7%  
148 3% 4%  
149 0.4% 0.9%  
150 0.3% 0.5%  
151 0% 0.2%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.7%  
111 0.2% 99.6%  
112 0.2% 99.4%  
113 0.3% 99.3%  
114 1.0% 99.0%  
115 1.4% 98%  
116 1.4% 97% Majority
117 0.9% 95%  
118 2% 94%  
119 6% 93%  
120 2% 87%  
121 2% 85%  
122 5% 84%  
123 4% 79%  
124 13% 75%  
125 6% 62%  
126 10% 56% Median
127 6% 45% Last Result
128 8% 39%  
129 4% 31%  
130 5% 27%  
131 2% 22%  
132 1.3% 19%  
133 2% 18%  
134 1.2% 16%  
135 1.5% 15%  
136 1.4% 14%  
137 1.4% 12%  
138 7% 11%  
139 3% 4%  
140 0.3% 0.8%  
141 0.1% 0.5%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.2% 0.3%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.1% 99.7%  
99 0.1% 99.7%  
100 0.3% 99.5%  
101 0.3% 99.3%  
102 0.3% 99.0%  
103 1.1% 98.7%  
104 0.3% 98%  
105 1.0% 97%  
106 1.1% 96%  
107 2% 95%  
108 3% 93%  
109 5% 91%  
110 4% 85%  
111 2% 81%  
112 8% 79%  
113 4% 72%  
114 11% 68%  
115 6% 56% Median
116 4% 50% Majority
117 6% 46%  
118 5% 40%  
119 8% 34%  
120 4% 27% Last Result
121 5% 23%  
122 3% 18%  
123 2% 15%  
124 1.0% 13%  
125 4% 12%  
126 0.9% 8%  
127 4% 7%  
128 0.3% 4%  
129 2% 3%  
130 0.3% 0.9%  
131 0.2% 0.6%  
132 0.3% 0.4%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.8%  
90 0.1% 99.7%  
91 0.1% 99.6%  
92 0.2% 99.5%  
93 0.2% 99.3%  
94 0.5% 99.2%  
95 0.6% 98.6%  
96 0.7% 98%  
97 1.3% 97%  
98 2% 96%  
99 2% 94%  
100 2% 92%  
101 4% 91%  
102 10% 87%  
103 6% 77%  
104 3% 71%  
105 10% 68%  
106 7% 57%  
107 4% 51% Median
108 6% 46% Last Result
109 8% 40%  
110 5% 32%  
111 3% 27%  
112 6% 23%  
113 2% 18%  
114 2% 15%  
115 2% 14%  
116 0.4% 12% Majority
117 7% 12%  
118 0.4% 4%  
119 0.5% 4%  
120 0.8% 4%  
121 2% 3%  
122 0.3% 0.7%  
123 0.1% 0.4%  
124 0.2% 0.4%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.7%  
56 0.6% 99.5%  
57 3% 98.9%  
58 1.0% 96%  
59 4% 95%  
60 2% 91%  
61 2% 89%  
62 4% 87%  
63 7% 84%  
64 4% 77%  
65 9% 73%  
66 12% 64% Median
67 9% 52%  
68 6% 44%  
69 9% 38%  
70 7% 29%  
71 4% 22%  
72 3% 19%  
73 2% 16%  
74 1.4% 13%  
75 4% 12%  
76 2% 8%  
77 0.7% 6%  
78 2% 5%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.7% 2%  
81 0.3% 1.0%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
85 0% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations