Opinion Poll by Intercampus for CMTV and Correio da Manhã, 5–11 November 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 39.1% 36.6–41.6% 35.9–42.4% 35.3–43.0% 34.1–44.2%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 28.1% 25.9–30.5% 25.2–31.2% 24.7–31.8% 23.6–33.0%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 7.7% 6.5–9.2% 6.1–9.7% 5.8–10.1% 5.3–10.9%
Chega 1.3% 6.4% 5.3–7.8% 5.0–8.2% 4.7–8.6% 4.2–9.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.2% 4.2–6.6% 4.0–7.0% 3.7–7.3% 3.3–8.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 4.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–6.0% 3.0–6.4% 2.7–7.0%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 4.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.1–5.8% 2.9–6.2% 2.5–6.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.0% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2% 1.1–3.4% 0.9–3.9%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.8% 0.0–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 108 103–117 102–119 100–121 95–125
Partido Social Democrata 79 76 69–82 67–85 65–85 62–90
Bloco de Esquerda 19 15 11–18 10–18 9–19 7–22
Chega 1 11 8–12 7–13 6–13 4–15
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 6–12 5–13 5–14 4–15
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 5 4–8 3–9 3–10 2–11
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 4–7 4–9 3–10 3–12
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–4
LIVRE 1 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.1% 99.7%  
93 0.1% 99.7%  
94 0.1% 99.6%  
95 0.2% 99.5%  
96 0.4% 99.4%  
97 0.2% 99.0%  
98 0.4% 98.8%  
99 0.3% 98%  
100 2% 98%  
101 1.2% 96%  
102 2% 95%  
103 8% 94%  
104 3% 85%  
105 3% 82%  
106 14% 79%  
107 15% 65%  
108 6% 50% Last Result, Median
109 3% 44%  
110 3% 41%  
111 10% 38%  
112 4% 28%  
113 3% 24%  
114 1.4% 21%  
115 4% 20%  
116 7% 17% Majority
117 4% 10%  
118 1.3% 6%  
119 2% 5%  
120 0.5% 3%  
121 0.8% 3%  
122 0.1% 2%  
123 0.8% 2%  
124 0.2% 1.3%  
125 0.6% 1.0%  
126 0.1% 0.4%  
127 0.2% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.7%  
62 0.2% 99.6%  
63 0.8% 99.4%  
64 0.7% 98.6%  
65 1.0% 98%  
66 0.9% 97%  
67 1.4% 96%  
68 2% 95%  
69 3% 93%  
70 4% 90%  
71 2% 86%  
72 5% 84%  
73 8% 79%  
74 5% 71%  
75 9% 66%  
76 15% 57% Median
77 3% 42%  
78 3% 39%  
79 7% 35% Last Result
80 2% 29%  
81 7% 26%  
82 10% 19%  
83 1.1% 10%  
84 4% 9%  
85 3% 5%  
86 0.6% 2%  
87 0.5% 2%  
88 0.2% 1.2%  
89 0.4% 1.0%  
90 0.2% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 0.6% 98%  
9 2% 98%  
10 2% 96%  
11 10% 95%  
12 10% 85%  
13 7% 75%  
14 17% 68%  
15 22% 51% Median
16 11% 29%  
17 5% 18%  
18 9% 14%  
19 3% 5% Last Result
20 0.5% 2%  
21 0.7% 1.4%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 0.7% 98%  
6 1.4% 98%  
7 1.4% 96%  
8 15% 95%  
9 6% 80%  
10 23% 74%  
11 39% 51% Median
12 6% 11%  
13 4% 5%  
14 1.3% 2%  
15 0.3% 0.7%  
16 0% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 2% 99.7%  
5 4% 98%  
6 11% 93%  
7 31% 82%  
8 8% 51% Median
9 4% 43%  
10 11% 39%  
11 13% 28%  
12 8% 15% Last Result
13 4% 7%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.9% 1.1%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 7% 98%  
4 39% 91% Last Result
5 11% 52% Median
6 27% 41%  
7 3% 14%  
8 4% 12%  
9 5% 8%  
10 1.5% 3%  
11 1.3% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 14% 95%  
5 23% 82%  
6 46% 58% Median
7 5% 12%  
8 2% 7%  
9 0.9% 5%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.3% 1.1%  
12 0.8% 0.9%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100%  
1 42% 53% Median
2 10% 11%  
3 0.9% 1.5%  
4 0.4% 0.6%  
5 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Median
1 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 132 99.7% 126–139 123–141 121–144 117–149
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 122 96% 118–132 116–134 115–135 107–139
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 118 65% 111–124 109–126 107–130 103–134
Partido Socialista 108 108 17% 103–117 102–119 100–121 95–125
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 76 0% 70–83 68–86 66–87 63–91

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.7% Majority
117 0.4% 99.5%  
118 0.2% 99.2%  
119 0.3% 99.0%  
120 0.7% 98.7%  
121 0.7% 98%  
122 1.1% 97%  
123 2% 96%  
124 0.8% 94%  
125 3% 94%  
126 6% 91%  
127 4% 85%  
128 12% 81%  
129 3% 69%  
130 3% 66%  
131 4% 63% Median
132 15% 59%  
133 10% 45%  
134 4% 35%  
135 9% 31%  
136 2% 22%  
137 3% 19%  
138 2% 17%  
139 5% 15% Last Result
140 3% 9%  
141 1.3% 6%  
142 0.8% 5%  
143 1.2% 4%  
144 0.6% 3%  
145 0.3% 2%  
146 0.5% 2%  
147 0.3% 1.1%  
148 0.1% 0.8%  
149 0.6% 0.7%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.7%  
107 0.3% 99.6%  
108 0.1% 99.3%  
109 0.1% 99.2%  
110 0.1% 99.1%  
111 0.3% 99.0%  
112 0.2% 98.7%  
113 0.5% 98%  
114 0.5% 98%  
115 1.2% 98%  
116 2% 96% Majority
117 1.3% 94%  
118 5% 93%  
119 8% 88%  
120 5% 80%  
121 25% 75%  
122 3% 50%  
123 14% 47% Median
124 3% 33%  
125 2% 30%  
126 3% 28%  
127 3% 25% Last Result
128 2% 22%  
129 2% 20%  
130 2% 18%  
131 3% 17%  
132 4% 14%  
133 4% 9%  
134 2% 5%  
135 1.0% 3%  
136 0.7% 2%  
137 0.2% 2%  
138 0.6% 1.3%  
139 0.5% 0.7%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.1% 99.6%  
103 0.3% 99.5%  
104 0.2% 99.2%  
105 0.3% 99.0%  
106 0.8% 98.8%  
107 0.8% 98%  
108 1.2% 97%  
109 1.0% 96%  
110 5% 95%  
111 4% 90%  
112 4% 86%  
113 12% 82%  
114 2% 70%  
115 3% 68%  
116 5% 65% Median, Majority
117 3% 60%  
118 17% 57%  
119 4% 40%  
120 5% 36% Last Result
121 4% 31%  
122 4% 27%  
123 11% 23%  
124 3% 12%  
125 2% 9%  
126 2% 6%  
127 1.2% 5%  
128 0.3% 4%  
129 0.6% 3%  
130 0.2% 3%  
131 0.8% 2%  
132 0.5% 2%  
133 0.5% 1.2%  
134 0.2% 0.6%  
135 0.1% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.2% 0.3%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.1% 99.7%  
93 0.1% 99.7%  
94 0.1% 99.6%  
95 0.2% 99.5%  
96 0.4% 99.4%  
97 0.2% 99.0%  
98 0.4% 98.8%  
99 0.3% 98%  
100 2% 98%  
101 1.2% 96%  
102 2% 95%  
103 8% 94%  
104 3% 85%  
105 3% 82%  
106 14% 79%  
107 15% 65%  
108 6% 50% Last Result, Median
109 3% 44%  
110 3% 41%  
111 10% 38%  
112 4% 28%  
113 3% 24%  
114 1.4% 21%  
115 4% 20%  
116 7% 17% Majority
117 4% 10%  
118 1.3% 6%  
119 2% 5%  
120 0.5% 3%  
121 0.8% 3%  
122 0.1% 2%  
123 0.8% 2%  
124 0.2% 1.3%  
125 0.6% 1.0%  
126 0.1% 0.4%  
127 0.2% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.7%  
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 0.2% 99.5%  
64 1.1% 99.3%  
65 0.7% 98%  
66 0.9% 98%  
67 1.3% 97%  
68 1.1% 95%  
69 2% 94%  
70 3% 92%  
71 3% 89%  
72 4% 86%  
73 10% 82%  
74 2% 73%  
75 10% 71%  
76 16% 61%  
77 4% 45% Median
78 3% 41%  
79 4% 38%  
80 5% 34%  
81 4% 29%  
82 11% 26%  
83 5% 15%  
84 1.0% 10% Last Result
85 2% 9%  
86 3% 6%  
87 1.5% 3%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 0.3% 1.1%  
90 0.3% 0.9%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations