Opinion Poll by Intercampus for CMTV and Correio da Manhã, 7–14 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 35.5% 33.0–38.0% 32.4–38.8% 31.8–39.4% 30.6–40.6%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 26.9% 24.6–29.3% 24.0–29.9% 23.5–30.6% 22.4–31.7%
Chega 1.3% 9.0% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1% 6.9–11.5% 6.3–12.4%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 6.6% 5.5–8.1% 5.2–8.5% 4.9–8.9% 4.4–9.7%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 6.5% 5.3–7.9% 5.0–8.4% 4.8–8.7% 4.3–9.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 4.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.3–6.1% 3.1–6.4% 2.7–7.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.5% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–5.0% 2.3–5.3% 2.0–5.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.0–2.8% 0.9–3.0% 0.7–3.5%
LIVRE 1.1% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 103 96–111 93–113 91–114 86–119
Partido Social Democrata 79 75 68–83 66–85 66–88 62–92
Chega 1 17 12–23 11–25 11–26 10–28
Bloco de Esquerda 19 12 7–16 7–17 7–17 6–19
Iniciativa Liberal 1 12 8–14 6–14 6–15 6–17
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 6 4–9 3–10 3–11 2–14
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 4 2–6 2–6 2–8 1–9
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–3
LIVRE 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.3% 99.6%  
87 0.5% 99.3%  
88 0.2% 98.8%  
89 0.4% 98.6%  
90 0.4% 98%  
91 0.9% 98%  
92 2% 97%  
93 1.1% 95%  
94 1.4% 94%  
95 2% 93%  
96 5% 91%  
97 4% 85%  
98 4% 81%  
99 5% 78%  
100 7% 73%  
101 8% 66%  
102 5% 59%  
103 8% 53% Median
104 7% 46%  
105 6% 39%  
106 7% 32%  
107 6% 26%  
108 3% 20% Last Result
109 3% 17%  
110 4% 14%  
111 1.2% 10%  
112 3% 9%  
113 2% 6%  
114 1.0% 3%  
115 0.7% 2%  
116 0.6% 2% Majority
117 0.4% 1.1%  
118 0.2% 0.7%  
119 0.2% 0.5%  
120 0.1% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.7%  
62 0.1% 99.5%  
63 0.1% 99.4%  
64 0.6% 99.3%  
65 0.8% 98.7%  
66 3% 98%  
67 2% 95%  
68 6% 92%  
69 2% 87%  
70 6% 84%  
71 3% 78%  
72 5% 76%  
73 10% 70%  
74 3% 60%  
75 8% 57% Median
76 4% 50%  
77 8% 46%  
78 7% 38%  
79 6% 31% Last Result
80 4% 24%  
81 6% 21%  
82 2% 15%  
83 5% 12%  
84 2% 8%  
85 1.4% 6%  
86 0.8% 4%  
87 0.7% 3%  
88 0.8% 3%  
89 0.4% 2%  
90 0.5% 2%  
91 0.5% 1.0%  
92 0.1% 0.6%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.4% 99.8%  
11 8% 99.5%  
12 3% 92%  
13 8% 89%  
14 18% 81%  
15 3% 63%  
16 7% 60%  
17 8% 52% Median
18 3% 44%  
19 11% 41%  
20 6% 30%  
21 9% 24%  
22 4% 15%  
23 2% 11%  
24 4% 10%  
25 3% 5%  
26 1.0% 3%  
27 0.9% 2%  
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 0.3% 99.8%  
7 12% 99.5%  
8 5% 87%  
9 2% 83%  
10 7% 81%  
11 21% 74%  
12 12% 53% Median
13 7% 41%  
14 18% 34%  
15 5% 15%  
16 3% 10%  
17 4% 7%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 7% 99.7%  
7 2% 92%  
8 2% 90%  
9 3% 88%  
10 18% 85%  
11 8% 68%  
12 32% 59% Median
13 6% 27%  
14 18% 21%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.4% 1.2%  
17 0.4% 0.8%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.7% 100%  
3 6% 99.3%  
4 7% 93%  
5 19% 87%  
6 29% 68% Median
7 25% 39%  
8 2% 15%  
9 3% 12%  
10 5% 9%  
11 2% 4%  
12 0.8% 2% Last Result
13 0.6% 2%  
14 0.8% 1.0%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 20% 99.3%  
3 12% 80%  
4 44% 68% Last Result, Median
5 13% 24%  
6 7% 11%  
7 0.7% 3%  
8 0.9% 3%  
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Median
1 36% 42%  
2 5% 6%  
3 0.5% 0.6%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Median
1 39% 40% Last Result
2 0.7% 0.9%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 121 81% 113–129 110–131 108–133 102–137
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 115 48% 107–122 104–124 102–126 97–130
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 109 18% 102–117 99–119 97–122 92–125
Partido Socialista 108 103 2% 96–111 93–113 91–114 86–119
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 76 0% 69–84 67–85 66–88 63–93

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.3% 99.8%  
103 0.1% 99.4%  
104 0.2% 99.3%  
105 0.2% 99.1%  
106 0.4% 98.9%  
107 0.4% 98.6%  
108 2% 98%  
109 0.9% 97%  
110 0.9% 96%  
111 0.8% 95%  
112 2% 94%  
113 2% 92%  
114 4% 90%  
115 5% 86%  
116 2% 81% Majority
117 7% 79%  
118 4% 72%  
119 9% 68%  
120 7% 59%  
121 5% 52% Median
122 8% 48%  
123 3% 39%  
124 9% 36%  
125 4% 27%  
126 3% 23%  
127 5% 20%  
128 3% 15%  
129 3% 13%  
130 4% 10%  
131 1.0% 6%  
132 1.4% 5%  
133 2% 4%  
134 0.6% 2%  
135 0.6% 1.4%  
136 0.2% 0.7%  
137 0.1% 0.6%  
138 0.2% 0.4%  
139 0% 0.2% Last Result
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.8%  
97 0.3% 99.6%  
98 0.2% 99.3%  
99 0.3% 99.1%  
100 0.3% 98.8%  
101 0.5% 98%  
102 0.8% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 1.1% 95%  
105 1.1% 94%  
106 1.0% 93%  
107 4% 92%  
108 3% 88%  
109 4% 85%  
110 4% 81%  
111 8% 78%  
112 5% 69%  
113 5% 64%  
114 4% 60%  
115 8% 56% Median
116 9% 48% Majority
117 9% 39%  
118 4% 31%  
119 3% 27%  
120 7% 24%  
121 5% 17%  
122 4% 13%  
123 2% 9%  
124 2% 7%  
125 1.1% 5%  
126 1.1% 3%  
127 1.0% 2% Last Result
128 0.5% 1.3%  
129 0.2% 0.8%  
130 0.2% 0.6%  
131 0.2% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.3% 99.8%  
92 0.3% 99.5%  
93 0.2% 99.2%  
94 0.3% 99.0%  
95 0.3% 98.6%  
96 0.4% 98%  
97 2% 98%  
98 0.6% 96%  
99 0.7% 96%  
100 2% 95%  
101 2% 93%  
102 6% 92%  
103 4% 85%  
104 3% 81%  
105 2% 79%  
106 9% 77%  
107 5% 68%  
108 12% 63%  
109 5% 51% Median
110 9% 46%  
111 7% 37%  
112 3% 30%  
113 3% 27%  
114 3% 24%  
115 3% 21%  
116 3% 18% Majority
117 5% 15%  
118 4% 9%  
119 1.5% 6%  
120 1.0% 4% Last Result
121 0.6% 3%  
122 0.8% 3%  
123 0.8% 2%  
124 0.3% 1.1%  
125 0.3% 0.8%  
126 0.1% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.4%  
128 0.2% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.3% 99.6%  
87 0.5% 99.3%  
88 0.2% 98.8%  
89 0.4% 98.6%  
90 0.4% 98%  
91 0.9% 98%  
92 2% 97%  
93 1.1% 95%  
94 1.4% 94%  
95 2% 93%  
96 5% 91%  
97 4% 85%  
98 4% 81%  
99 5% 78%  
100 7% 73%  
101 8% 66%  
102 5% 59%  
103 8% 53% Median
104 7% 46%  
105 6% 39%  
106 7% 32%  
107 6% 26%  
108 3% 20% Last Result
109 3% 17%  
110 4% 14%  
111 1.2% 10%  
112 3% 9%  
113 2% 6%  
114 1.0% 3%  
115 0.7% 2%  
116 0.6% 2% Majority
117 0.4% 1.1%  
118 0.2% 0.7%  
119 0.2% 0.5%  
120 0.1% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.7%  
62 0.1% 99.6%  
63 0.1% 99.5%  
64 0.5% 99.4%  
65 0.5% 98.8%  
66 3% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 3% 94%  
69 4% 91%  
70 6% 86%  
71 4% 81%  
72 4% 77%  
73 8% 72%  
74 5% 64%  
75 3% 59% Median
76 9% 56%  
77 4% 47%  
78 11% 43%  
79 5% 32%  
80 5% 27%  
81 7% 22%  
82 3% 16%  
83 3% 13%  
84 4% 10% Last Result
85 1.4% 6%  
86 0.8% 5%  
87 0.7% 4%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.2% 1.1%  
92 0.5% 1.0%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations