Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP for Público and RTP, 6–10 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 39.0% 37.3–40.8% 36.7–41.3% 36.3–41.7% 35.5–42.6%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 30.0% 28.4–31.7% 27.9–32.2% 27.5–32.6% 26.8–33.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.5% 4.5–8.0%
Chega 1.3% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.5% 4.5–8.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.3% 3.6–6.8%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
LIVRE 1.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 110 106–116 104–118 103–119 99–120
Partido Social Democrata 79 83 77–87 76–89 75–90 73–93
Bloco de Esquerda 19 9 7–13 7–13 7–14 7–15
Chega 1 10 8–11 7–11 7–11 4–14
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 7 6–9 5–9 5–10 5–13
Iniciativa Liberal 1 5 4–6 4–6 3–7 3–9
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 1–5
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
LIVRE 1 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.1% 99.7%  
99 0.1% 99.6%  
100 0.2% 99.5%  
101 0.5% 99.3%  
102 0.7% 98.8%  
103 3% 98%  
104 2% 95%  
105 2% 93%  
106 4% 91%  
107 9% 87%  
108 6% 79% Last Result
109 21% 73%  
110 7% 52% Median
111 5% 45%  
112 5% 40%  
113 5% 35%  
114 9% 30%  
115 7% 21%  
116 5% 13% Majority
117 3% 8%  
118 2% 6%  
119 3% 4%  
120 1.1% 2%  
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.2% 0.2%  
123 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.4% 99.7%  
74 0.7% 99.4%  
75 2% 98.7%  
76 4% 96%  
77 4% 92%  
78 5% 88%  
79 7% 83% Last Result
80 4% 76%  
81 11% 72%  
82 7% 61%  
83 13% 53% Median
84 8% 40%  
85 5% 31%  
86 14% 26%  
87 3% 12%  
88 4% 9%  
89 2% 6%  
90 1.2% 4%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 1.1% 2%  
93 0.2% 0.7%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 0.2% 99.9%  
7 39% 99.7%  
8 8% 61%  
9 6% 52% Median
10 8% 47%  
11 18% 39%  
12 5% 21%  
13 12% 16%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.7% 0.9%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 0.8% 99.5%  
6 1.1% 98.7%  
7 5% 98%  
8 22% 93%  
9 17% 71%  
10 27% 54% Median
11 25% 27%  
12 1.0% 2%  
13 0.5% 1.1%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 7% 99.8%  
6 26% 93%  
7 19% 66% Median
8 35% 47%  
9 8% 12%  
10 2% 4%  
11 0.4% 2%  
12 1.1% 2% Last Result
13 0.4% 0.8%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 19% 97%  
5 33% 78% Median
6 42% 46%  
7 1.4% 3%  
8 0.9% 2%  
9 0.4% 0.7%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 44% 98%  
3 23% 55% Median
4 30% 32% Last Result
5 1.2% 2%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 81% 84% Median
2 2% 3%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 45% 99.9% Last Result
2 42% 55% Median
3 11% 13%  
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 127 99.7% 122–133 121–134 120–136 116–138
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 121 87% 115–126 114–127 113–128 109–131
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 117 76% 113–124 111–125 110–126 107–128
Partido Socialista 108 110 13% 106–116 104–118 103–119 99–120
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 84 0% 78–88 77–90 76–91 74–94

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.7% Majority
117 0.2% 99.5%  
118 0.5% 99.3%  
119 1.1% 98.8%  
120 2% 98%  
121 4% 96%  
122 4% 92%  
123 6% 88%  
124 13% 82%  
125 4% 69%  
126 6% 64% Median
127 11% 59%  
128 6% 48%  
129 6% 42%  
130 14% 36%  
131 5% 22%  
132 5% 17%  
133 3% 11%  
134 4% 8%  
135 2% 4%  
136 1.3% 3%  
137 0.6% 1.2%  
138 0.2% 0.6%  
139 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0.1% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.1% 99.7%  
109 0.2% 99.6%  
110 0.3% 99.4%  
111 0.4% 99.1%  
112 1.2% 98.7%  
113 3% 98%  
114 4% 95%  
115 4% 91%  
116 14% 87% Majority
117 4% 72%  
118 7% 68%  
119 4% 62% Median
120 6% 57%  
121 12% 52%  
122 13% 39%  
123 5% 26%  
124 4% 21%  
125 4% 17%  
126 5% 12%  
127 3% 7% Last Result
128 2% 5%  
129 1.2% 2%  
130 0.3% 1.0%  
131 0.2% 0.7%  
132 0.4% 0.4%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.7%  
107 0.1% 99.5%  
108 0.4% 99.4%  
109 1.4% 99.0%  
110 1.0% 98%  
111 3% 97%  
112 4% 94%  
113 5% 91%  
114 6% 85%  
115 4% 79%  
116 6% 76% Majority
117 24% 70% Median
118 5% 46%  
119 4% 41%  
120 9% 37% Last Result
121 5% 28%  
122 9% 23%  
123 4% 14%  
124 4% 10%  
125 2% 6%  
126 2% 4%  
127 1.0% 2%  
128 0.3% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.1% 99.7%  
99 0.1% 99.6%  
100 0.2% 99.5%  
101 0.5% 99.3%  
102 0.7% 98.8%  
103 3% 98%  
104 2% 95%  
105 2% 93%  
106 4% 91%  
107 9% 87%  
108 6% 79% Last Result
109 21% 73%  
110 7% 52% Median
111 5% 45%  
112 5% 40%  
113 5% 35%  
114 9% 30%  
115 7% 21%  
116 5% 13% Majority
117 3% 8%  
118 2% 6%  
119 3% 4%  
120 1.1% 2%  
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.2% 0.2%  
123 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.7%  
75 0.8% 99.1%  
76 2% 98%  
77 4% 96%  
78 5% 91%  
79 5% 87%  
80 7% 82%  
81 4% 75%  
82 12% 71%  
83 8% 59%  
84 14% 51% Last Result, Median
85 7% 38%  
86 5% 31%  
87 15% 26%  
88 3% 11%  
89 3% 8%  
90 2% 6%  
91 0.9% 3%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 1.1% 2%  
94 0.2% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations