Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal and TVI, 13–16 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 40.1% 37.6–42.7% 36.9–43.5% 36.3–44.1% 35.1–45.3%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 28.8% 26.5–31.2% 25.9–31.9% 25.3–32.5% 24.3–33.7%
Chega 1.3% 8.1% 6.8–9.6% 6.4–10.1% 6.1–10.5% 5.6–11.3%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.9% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7% 4.3–8.1% 3.8–8.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.9% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7% 4.3–8.1% 3.8–8.8%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 4.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6% 3.5–7.0% 3.1–7.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 1.5% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.6–3.3%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.3% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.4% 0.7–2.6% 0.5–3.0%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 112 105–120 103–121 99–122 96–127
Partido Social Democrata 79 77 70–84 68–86 66–88 63–92
Chega 1 13 11–18 10–19 9–20 8–23
Bloco de Esquerda 19 8 7–12 6–14 5–15 3–17
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 10 6–14 6–15 5–15 5–18
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 5–11 4–12 4–12 3–13
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
LIVRE 1 1 0–1 0–2 0–3 0–3
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.2% 99.6%  
97 0.3% 99.4%  
98 0.8% 99.1%  
99 0.9% 98%  
100 0.4% 97%  
101 1.3% 97%  
102 0.7% 96%  
103 2% 95%  
104 2% 93%  
105 3% 92%  
106 11% 88%  
107 8% 78%  
108 6% 70% Last Result
109 4% 64%  
110 4% 60%  
111 3% 55%  
112 8% 52% Median
113 4% 44%  
114 7% 40%  
115 8% 33%  
116 4% 25% Majority
117 4% 21%  
118 4% 17%  
119 3% 14%  
120 4% 10%  
121 3% 6%  
122 2% 4%  
123 0.5% 2%  
124 0.9% 2%  
125 0.1% 0.8%  
126 0.1% 0.7%  
127 0.1% 0.6%  
128 0.1% 0.5%  
129 0.1% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.2% 0.2%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.7% 99.7%  
64 1.0% 98.9%  
65 0.2% 98%  
66 0.9% 98%  
67 0.6% 97%  
68 4% 96%  
69 2% 92%  
70 2% 90%  
71 3% 89%  
72 4% 85%  
73 4% 81%  
74 4% 77%  
75 6% 73%  
76 10% 67%  
77 8% 57% Median
78 7% 49%  
79 11% 42% Last Result
80 3% 32%  
81 8% 28%  
82 4% 20%  
83 5% 16%  
84 1.5% 10%  
85 1.2% 9%  
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.0% 3%  
89 1.2% 2%  
90 0.4% 1.0%  
91 0.1% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.5%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 1.4% 99.9%  
9 2% 98.5%  
10 5% 97%  
11 29% 92%  
12 8% 64%  
13 9% 56% Median
14 27% 47%  
15 2% 19%  
16 2% 17%  
17 2% 15%  
18 8% 13%  
19 2% 5%  
20 0.9% 3%  
21 1.1% 2%  
22 0.7% 1.4%  
23 0.4% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.7% 99.8%  
4 0.6% 99.1%  
5 2% 98%  
6 1.5% 96%  
7 41% 95%  
8 6% 54% Median
9 3% 47%  
10 7% 44%  
11 24% 37%  
12 3% 12%  
13 4% 10%  
14 3% 6%  
15 1.0% 3%  
16 1.1% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.6%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 9% 96%  
7 13% 87%  
8 11% 74%  
9 9% 62%  
10 14% 53% Median
11 4% 39%  
12 6% 36% Last Result
13 12% 29%  
14 9% 18%  
15 6% 9%  
16 1.0% 2%  
17 0.8% 1.4%  
18 0.5% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.7% 100%  
4 8% 99.3%  
5 7% 91%  
6 42% 84% Median
7 9% 42%  
8 7% 33%  
9 7% 26%  
10 6% 19%  
11 4% 14%  
12 9% 10%  
13 0.3% 0.6%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Median
1 35% 50%  
2 15% 15%  
3 0.6% 0.9%  
4 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100%  
1 67% 76% Last Result, Median
2 6% 9%  
3 3% 4%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 130 99.2% 123–138 121–140 119–142 113–147
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 122 86% 114–129 112–131 110–133 105–138
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 121 81% 113–128 111–130 109–131 105–137
Partido Socialista 108 112 25% 105–120 103–121 99–122 96–127
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 77 0% 70–84 68–86 66–88 63–92

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.3% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.5%  
115 0.1% 99.3%  
116 0.3% 99.2% Majority
117 0.5% 99.0%  
118 0.9% 98%  
119 1.2% 98%  
120 1.0% 96%  
121 1.1% 95%  
122 3% 94%  
123 2% 92%  
124 1.3% 89%  
125 4% 88%  
126 6% 84%  
127 6% 78%  
128 2% 72%  
129 6% 69%  
130 17% 63% Median
131 3% 46%  
132 8% 42%  
133 5% 35%  
134 5% 30%  
135 7% 26%  
136 4% 19%  
137 4% 15%  
138 3% 11%  
139 2% 8% Last Result
140 2% 6%  
141 2% 5%  
142 0.8% 3%  
143 0.5% 2%  
144 0.5% 2%  
145 0.4% 1.3%  
146 0.3% 0.9%  
147 0.1% 0.6%  
148 0.3% 0.4%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.6%  
106 0.5% 99.4%  
107 0.3% 99.0%  
108 0.2% 98.7%  
109 0.5% 98%  
110 0.8% 98%  
111 1.1% 97%  
112 2% 96%  
113 2% 94%  
114 3% 92%  
115 3% 89%  
116 3% 86% Majority
117 4% 84%  
118 6% 80%  
119 13% 74%  
120 4% 61% Last Result
121 6% 57%  
122 8% 50% Median
123 9% 43%  
124 3% 33%  
125 5% 30%  
126 4% 25%  
127 4% 21%  
128 5% 17%  
129 2% 11%  
130 4% 9%  
131 1.2% 5%  
132 1.1% 4%  
133 1.2% 3%  
134 0.4% 2%  
135 0.2% 2%  
136 0.3% 1.4%  
137 0.2% 1.1%  
138 0.5% 0.9%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0% 0.3%  
141 0.2% 0.2%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.1% 99.7%  
105 0.5% 99.6%  
106 0.6% 99.1%  
107 0.4% 98.6%  
108 0.6% 98%  
109 0.4% 98%  
110 1.1% 97%  
111 2% 96%  
112 2% 94%  
113 2% 92%  
114 4% 90%  
115 4% 86%  
116 2% 81% Majority
117 14% 80%  
118 2% 66%  
119 6% 64%  
120 6% 58% Median
121 7% 52%  
122 8% 44%  
123 7% 37%  
124 4% 30%  
125 5% 26%  
126 5% 21%  
127 5% 16% Last Result
128 2% 11%  
129 3% 9%  
130 2% 6%  
131 2% 4%  
132 0.7% 2%  
133 0.2% 1.2%  
134 0.2% 1.0%  
135 0.2% 0.8%  
136 0.1% 0.6%  
137 0.1% 0.5%  
138 0.3% 0.4%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.2% 99.6%  
97 0.3% 99.4%  
98 0.8% 99.1%  
99 0.9% 98%  
100 0.4% 97%  
101 1.3% 97%  
102 0.7% 96%  
103 2% 95%  
104 2% 93%  
105 3% 92%  
106 11% 88%  
107 8% 78%  
108 6% 70% Last Result
109 4% 64%  
110 4% 60%  
111 3% 55%  
112 8% 52% Median
113 4% 44%  
114 7% 40%  
115 8% 33%  
116 4% 25% Majority
117 4% 21%  
118 4% 17%  
119 3% 14%  
120 4% 10%  
121 3% 6%  
122 2% 4%  
123 0.5% 2%  
124 0.9% 2%  
125 0.1% 0.8%  
126 0.1% 0.7%  
127 0.1% 0.6%  
128 0.1% 0.5%  
129 0.1% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.2% 0.2%  
132 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.7% 99.7%  
64 1.0% 99.0%  
65 0.2% 98%  
66 0.9% 98%  
67 0.6% 97%  
68 4% 96%  
69 2% 92%  
70 1.5% 90%  
71 3% 89%  
72 4% 85%  
73 4% 81%  
74 4% 77%  
75 6% 73%  
76 10% 67%  
77 8% 57% Median
78 7% 49%  
79 11% 42%  
80 3% 32%  
81 8% 28%  
82 5% 20%  
83 5% 16%  
84 1.5% 10% Last Result
85 1.2% 9%  
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.0% 3%  
89 1.2% 2%  
90 0.4% 1.0%  
91 0.1% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.5%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations