Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP for Público and RTP, 12–18 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.0% 35.4–38.7% 35.0–39.1% 34.6–39.5% 33.8–40.3%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 33.0% 31.4–34.6% 31.0–35.0% 30.6–35.4% 29.9–36.2%
Chega 1.3% 6.0% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.5–7.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.7–6.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.7–6.7%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.7–6.7%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1%
LIVRE 1.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 104 97–108 97–109 95–111 93–114
Partido Social Democrata 79 91 87–98 85–99 85–100 83–102
Chega 1 10 8–11 7–11 7–11 5–12
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 6–8 5–9 4–9 3–11
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–14
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 6–9 6–9 5–10 5–11
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–4
LIVRE 1 1 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.8%  
93 0.5% 99.5%  
94 0.6% 99.0%  
95 1.2% 98%  
96 2% 97%  
97 7% 95%  
98 3% 89%  
99 5% 86%  
100 6% 80%  
101 2% 74%  
102 6% 72%  
103 12% 66%  
104 11% 54% Median
105 10% 43%  
106 13% 33%  
107 7% 20%  
108 6% 13% Last Result
109 3% 7%  
110 1.1% 4%  
111 1.4% 3%  
112 0.7% 2%  
113 0.2% 0.8%  
114 0.3% 0.6%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0% 0.1% Majority
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.9% 99.5%  
84 0.8% 98.6%  
85 3% 98%  
86 3% 95%  
87 5% 92%  
88 12% 87%  
89 17% 75%  
90 4% 58%  
91 11% 54% Median
92 4% 43%  
93 11% 39%  
94 3% 28%  
95 3% 25%  
96 6% 22%  
97 6% 16%  
98 4% 10%  
99 3% 6%  
100 1.2% 3%  
101 0.8% 2%  
102 0.6% 1.1%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.7% 99.9%  
6 1.0% 99.2%  
7 4% 98%  
8 13% 94%  
9 12% 80%  
10 36% 69% Median
11 32% 33%  
12 0.3% 0.7%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.8% 100%  
4 3% 99.2%  
5 4% 96%  
6 3% 91%  
7 77% 89% Median
8 3% 12%  
9 7% 9%  
10 1.4% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.8%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 7% 100%  
6 15% 93%  
7 22% 78%  
8 51% 56% Median
9 3% 5%  
10 0.7% 2%  
11 0.3% 1.4%  
12 0.1% 1.0% Last Result
13 0.2% 0.9%  
14 0.5% 0.7%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.3% 100%  
5 3% 99.7%  
6 56% 96% Median
7 3% 40%  
8 18% 37%  
9 15% 20%  
10 3% 5%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 92% 98% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 29% 98%  
2 67% 70% Median
3 0.9% 2%  
4 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 81% 99.8% Last Result, Median
2 13% 19%  
3 5% 5%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 118 72% 112–122 111–123 109–125 106–128
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 111 8% 105–115 104–116 103–118 99–121
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 111 6% 105–115 104–116 102–118 99–121
Partido Socialista 108 104 0.1% 97–108 97–109 95–111 93–114
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 92 0% 88–99 87–100 86–101 83–104

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.3% 99.7%  
107 0.4% 99.4%  
108 0.4% 99.0%  
109 1.3% 98.6%  
110 2% 97%  
111 3% 96%  
112 5% 92%  
113 5% 87%  
114 6% 82%  
115 5% 76%  
116 3% 72% Majority
117 8% 69%  
118 14% 61%  
119 9% 46% Median
120 14% 37%  
121 6% 23%  
122 9% 17%  
123 3% 8%  
124 2% 5%  
125 1.3% 3%  
126 0.9% 2%  
127 0.4% 1.1%  
128 0.3% 0.7%  
129 0.3% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.4% 99.8%  
100 0.4% 99.5%  
101 0.4% 99.0%  
102 1.1% 98.6%  
103 2% 98%  
104 3% 96%  
105 7% 93%  
106 5% 86%  
107 3% 81%  
108 6% 77%  
109 2% 72%  
110 8% 70%  
111 15% 62%  
112 11% 47% Median
113 14% 36%  
114 5% 21%  
115 9% 17%  
116 3% 8% Majority
117 2% 5%  
118 1.1% 3%  
119 1.0% 2%  
120 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
121 0.3% 0.7%  
122 0.2% 0.4%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.5% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.4%  
101 0.7% 99.1%  
102 1.4% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 4% 95%  
105 4% 91%  
106 8% 87%  
107 5% 79%  
108 4% 74%  
109 6% 70%  
110 11% 64%  
111 9% 53% Median
112 10% 44%  
113 15% 34%  
114 7% 19%  
115 6% 12%  
116 2% 6% Majority
117 1.1% 4%  
118 1.4% 3%  
119 0.8% 2%  
120 0.3% 0.8%  
121 0.3% 0.5%  
122 0.1% 0.3%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.8%  
93 0.5% 99.5%  
94 0.6% 99.0%  
95 1.2% 98%  
96 2% 97%  
97 7% 95%  
98 3% 89%  
99 5% 86%  
100 6% 80%  
101 2% 74%  
102 6% 72%  
103 12% 66%  
104 11% 54% Median
105 10% 43%  
106 13% 33%  
107 7% 20%  
108 6% 13% Last Result
109 3% 7%  
110 1.1% 4%  
111 1.4% 3%  
112 0.7% 2%  
113 0.2% 0.8%  
114 0.3% 0.6%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0% 0.1% Majority
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 0.7% 99.5% Last Result
85 0.7% 98.7%  
86 3% 98%  
87 2% 95%  
88 6% 93%  
89 12% 87%  
90 17% 75%  
91 4% 58%  
92 11% 55% Median
93 5% 44%  
94 11% 39%  
95 3% 28%  
96 3% 25%  
97 6% 22%  
98 6% 16%  
99 5% 11%  
100 2% 6%  
101 1.3% 3%  
102 1.1% 2%  
103 0.6% 1.1%  
104 0.3% 0.5%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations