Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal and TVI, 16–19 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 36.5% 34.1–39.1% 33.4–39.8% 32.8–40.4% 31.6–41.7%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 32.9% 30.5–35.4% 29.8–36.1% 29.3–36.7% 28.2–38.0%
Chega 1.3% 6.2% 5.2–7.7% 4.8–8.1% 4.6–8.5% 4.1–9.2%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.0–7.0% 3.7–7.3% 3.3–8.0%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 4.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6% 3.5–7.0% 3.1–7.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 4.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6% 3.5–7.0% 3.1–7.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.0% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.4% 0.9–3.9%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.5% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.6–3.3%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.0% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.5–2.1% 0.3–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 103 94–110 91–112 89–115 87–118
Partido Social Democrata 79 92 84–99 82–102 81–104 77–109
Chega 1 10 8–11 6–13 5–14 4–17
Iniciativa Liberal 1 8 6–12 6–12 5–12 4–14
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 4–11 4–12 3–13 2–15
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 5–11 5–12 5–14 3–15
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 1 0–2 0–3 0–4 0–4
LIVRE 1 1 1–2 0–3 0–3 0–4
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.7% 99.5%  
88 0.9% 98.8%  
89 0.5% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 1.3% 96%  
92 1.4% 94%  
93 2% 93%  
94 2% 91%  
95 5% 89%  
96 6% 83%  
97 6% 78%  
98 5% 72%  
99 4% 68%  
100 3% 63%  
101 3% 60%  
102 5% 57%  
103 4% 52% Median
104 12% 49%  
105 5% 36%  
106 8% 32%  
107 4% 24%  
108 3% 20% Last Result
109 5% 17%  
110 2% 12%  
111 4% 10%  
112 1.2% 6%  
113 1.0% 4%  
114 0.8% 3%  
115 0.4% 3%  
116 1.0% 2% Majority
117 0.6% 1.2%  
118 0.1% 0.5%  
119 0.2% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.7%  
78 0.6% 99.5%  
79 0.5% 98.9% Last Result
80 0.6% 98%  
81 1.2% 98%  
82 2% 97%  
83 4% 95%  
84 3% 91%  
85 4% 88%  
86 5% 84%  
87 4% 79%  
88 8% 76%  
89 9% 68%  
90 3% 59%  
91 4% 55%  
92 9% 52% Median
93 4% 43%  
94 6% 38%  
95 2% 33%  
96 3% 30%  
97 6% 27%  
98 7% 20%  
99 3% 13%  
100 1.2% 10%  
101 2% 9%  
102 2% 7%  
103 0.9% 5%  
104 1.3% 4%  
105 0.8% 2%  
106 0.6% 2%  
107 0.2% 1.0%  
108 0.3% 0.8%  
109 0.3% 0.5%  
110 0.2% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 1.0% 99.9%  
5 3% 98.9%  
6 1.4% 96%  
7 3% 95%  
8 19% 92%  
9 14% 73%  
10 16% 60% Median
11 34% 43%  
12 2% 9%  
13 4% 7%  
14 2% 4%  
15 0.6% 2%  
16 0.5% 1.1%  
17 0.2% 0.6%  
18 0.2% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 2% 99.8%  
5 3% 98%  
6 32% 96%  
7 9% 64%  
8 9% 55% Median
9 17% 45%  
10 10% 28%  
11 5% 18%  
12 10% 13%  
13 0.7% 2%  
14 1.4% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.3% 100%  
3 4% 98.7%  
4 6% 95%  
5 6% 89%  
6 4% 82%  
7 46% 78% Median
8 7% 32%  
9 13% 25%  
10 2% 13%  
11 5% 11%  
12 2% 6%  
13 2% 4%  
14 1.5% 2%  
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 0.6% 99.7%  
4 0.8% 99.1%  
5 14% 98%  
6 6% 84%  
7 9% 78%  
8 27% 69% Median
9 28% 42%  
10 4% 14%  
11 4% 10%  
12 3% 7% Last Result
13 0.7% 4%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.9% 1.1%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 47% 86% Median
2 32% 39%  
3 2% 7%  
4 4% 4% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 74% 91% Last Result, Median
2 9% 16%  
3 6% 7%  
4 1.0% 1.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0.2% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 119 60% 109–126 107–127 105–129 101–133
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 111 20% 101–118 98–120 97–122 94–126
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 111 20% 102–119 99–120 97–122 94–126
Partido Socialista 108 103 2% 94–110 91–112 89–115 87–118
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 92 0% 84–100 83–102 81–104 77–109

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.2% 99.8%  
101 0.1% 99.6%  
102 0.6% 99.4%  
103 0.7% 98.8%  
104 0.6% 98%  
105 0.9% 98%  
106 0.9% 97%  
107 1.4% 96%  
108 2% 94%  
109 3% 92%  
110 2% 89%  
111 3% 87%  
112 7% 84%  
113 9% 77%  
114 4% 68%  
115 5% 65%  
116 3% 60% Majority
117 3% 57%  
118 3% 54% Median
119 7% 51%  
120 14% 44%  
121 5% 30%  
122 3% 26%  
123 4% 22%  
124 3% 19%  
125 5% 15%  
126 4% 11%  
127 2% 7%  
128 1.3% 5%  
129 1.2% 3%  
130 0.3% 2%  
131 0.3% 2%  
132 0.8% 2%  
133 0.5% 0.9%  
134 0.2% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.1% 99.6%  
94 0.4% 99.5%  
95 0.9% 99.1%  
96 0.4% 98%  
97 2% 98%  
98 1.0% 96%  
99 1.1% 95%  
100 3% 93%  
101 2% 91%  
102 2% 89%  
103 3% 87%  
104 11% 84%  
105 4% 73%  
106 4% 69%  
107 3% 65%  
108 4% 61%  
109 2% 58%  
110 4% 56% Median
111 14% 52%  
112 7% 38%  
113 6% 31%  
114 2% 25%  
115 3% 23%  
116 7% 20% Majority
117 3% 13%  
118 3% 10%  
119 2% 7%  
120 1.5% 5%  
121 0.8% 4%  
122 0.6% 3%  
123 0.7% 2%  
124 0.6% 2%  
125 0.2% 0.9%  
126 0.4% 0.7%  
127 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 0.5% 99.5%  
96 1.0% 99.0%  
97 0.8% 98%  
98 1.1% 97%  
99 2% 96%  
100 1.3% 95%  
101 3% 93%  
102 4% 91%  
103 2% 87%  
104 7% 85%  
105 3% 77%  
106 5% 75%  
107 3% 70%  
108 8% 67%  
109 2% 59%  
110 3% 57%  
111 8% 54% Median
112 7% 46%  
113 10% 39%  
114 5% 29%  
115 3% 24%  
116 3% 20% Majority
117 3% 18%  
118 5% 15%  
119 5% 10%  
120 0.5% 5% Last Result
121 2% 5%  
122 0.9% 3%  
123 0.4% 2%  
124 0.5% 2%  
125 0.6% 1.3%  
126 0.4% 0.7%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.7% 99.5%  
88 0.9% 98.8%  
89 0.5% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 1.3% 96%  
92 1.4% 94%  
93 2% 93%  
94 2% 91%  
95 5% 89%  
96 6% 83%  
97 6% 78%  
98 5% 72%  
99 4% 68%  
100 3% 63%  
101 3% 60%  
102 5% 57%  
103 4% 52% Median
104 12% 49%  
105 5% 36%  
106 8% 32%  
107 4% 24%  
108 3% 20% Last Result
109 5% 17%  
110 2% 12%  
111 4% 10%  
112 1.2% 6%  
113 1.0% 4%  
114 0.8% 3%  
115 0.4% 3%  
116 1.0% 2% Majority
117 0.6% 1.2%  
118 0.1% 0.5%  
119 0.2% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.7%  
78 0.6% 99.5%  
79 0.5% 98.9%  
80 0.6% 98%  
81 1.2% 98%  
82 2% 97%  
83 3% 95%  
84 3% 92% Last Result
85 4% 88%  
86 5% 85%  
87 4% 80%  
88 8% 76%  
89 9% 68%  
90 4% 59%  
91 3% 56%  
92 10% 52% Median
93 4% 43%  
94 5% 39%  
95 3% 33%  
96 3% 30%  
97 6% 27%  
98 7% 21%  
99 4% 14%  
100 1.3% 10%  
101 2% 9%  
102 2% 7%  
103 1.0% 5%  
104 1.3% 4%  
105 0.9% 2%  
106 0.6% 2%  
107 0.2% 1.0%  
108 0.3% 0.8%  
109 0.3% 0.5%  
110 0.2% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations