Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias, 16–21 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 34.4% 32.5–36.4% 31.9–37.0% 31.5–37.5% 30.6–38.4%
Partido Socialista 36.4% 33.8% 31.9–35.8% 31.3–36.3% 30.9–36.8% 30.0–37.8%
Chega 1.3% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.4–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 6.6% 5.7–7.8% 5.4–8.1% 5.2–8.4% 4.8–9.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 4.5% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–5.0%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.1% 1.7–4.5%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.6% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.9–2.4% 0.7–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Social Democrata 79 98 92–104 89–105 88–106 85–108
Partido Socialista 108 93 87–98 86–101 85–104 82–107
Chega 1 13 11–17 11–17 11–18 9–21
Bloco de Esquerda 19 11 9–15 7–15 7–16 7–17
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 5 5–8 5–9 4–10 3–12
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 3 2–4 2–5 2–6 1–6
Iniciativa Liberal 1 3 3–4 3–5 2–5 1–6
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
LIVRE 1 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–3

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.5% 99.7%  
86 0.9% 99.3%  
87 0.5% 98%  
88 2% 98%  
89 3% 96%  
90 1.1% 94%  
91 1.2% 93%  
92 1.4% 91%  
93 4% 90%  
94 5% 86%  
95 3% 81%  
96 10% 78%  
97 11% 68%  
98 9% 57% Median
99 15% 48%  
100 9% 33%  
101 5% 24%  
102 5% 19%  
103 4% 14%  
104 4% 10%  
105 3% 6%  
106 1.5% 3%  
107 1.3% 2%  
108 0.3% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.3%  
110 0.2% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.2% 99.6%  
83 0.6% 99.4%  
84 1.2% 98.8%  
85 1.4% 98%  
86 3% 96%  
87 5% 93%  
88 5% 88%  
89 9% 83%  
90 7% 75%  
91 5% 68%  
92 12% 63%  
93 8% 51% Median
94 8% 43%  
95 10% 35%  
96 8% 25%  
97 6% 17%  
98 2% 11%  
99 1.5% 10%  
100 2% 8%  
101 2% 7%  
102 0.8% 4%  
103 0.5% 4%  
104 1.3% 3%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 0.5% 1.2%  
107 0.6% 0.7%  
108 0% 0.1% Last Result
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.4% 99.8%  
10 1.1% 99.4%  
11 22% 98%  
12 14% 76%  
13 17% 62% Median
14 11% 45%  
15 18% 34%  
16 4% 17%  
17 8% 12%  
18 2% 4%  
19 1.0% 2%  
20 0.4% 1.1%  
21 0.3% 0.7%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 6% 99.9%  
8 3% 94%  
9 8% 91%  
10 6% 83%  
11 33% 77% Median
12 17% 44%  
13 6% 27%  
14 6% 20%  
15 10% 14%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0.2% 0.6%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.9% 99.8%  
4 2% 98.9%  
5 52% 97% Median
6 13% 45%  
7 16% 32%  
8 12% 17%  
9 3% 5%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.7%  
12 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 25% 99.3%  
3 25% 74% Median
4 39% 49% Last Result
5 6% 10%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 2% 98%  
3 53% 97% Median
4 36% 44%  
5 6% 8%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Median
1 26% 27%  
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 89% 97% Last Result, Median
2 5% 7%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 110 12% 104–118 103–120 101–122 99–123
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 104 1.4% 98–112 97–113 96–115 93–117
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 99 0.1% 93–105 92–108 91–110 88–113
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 98 0% 93–104 89–105 88–106 86–108
Partido Socialista 108 93 0% 87–98 86–101 85–104 82–107

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.4% 99.7%  
100 0.5% 99.2%  
101 1.2% 98.7%  
102 1.5% 97%  
103 4% 96%  
104 3% 92%  
105 4% 90%  
106 3% 86%  
107 4% 83%  
108 13% 79%  
109 7% 66% Median
110 9% 59%  
111 16% 50%  
112 13% 34%  
113 4% 21%  
114 3% 17%  
115 2% 14%  
116 0.7% 12% Majority
117 2% 12%  
118 3% 10%  
119 1.1% 7%  
120 2% 6%  
121 0.9% 4%  
122 2% 3%  
123 1.0% 1.4%  
124 0.1% 0.3%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.2% 99.6%  
94 0.6% 99.4%  
95 1.2% 98.8%  
96 2% 98%  
97 2% 95%  
98 4% 93%  
99 3% 90%  
100 2% 86%  
101 3% 84%  
102 7% 81%  
103 17% 74%  
104 13% 58% Median
105 9% 45%  
106 15% 36%  
107 5% 21%  
108 2% 15%  
109 2% 14%  
110 1.0% 12%  
111 0.7% 11%  
112 3% 10%  
113 2% 7%  
114 2% 5%  
115 1.5% 3%  
116 0.9% 1.4% Majority
117 0.3% 0.6%  
118 0.1% 0.3%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.7%  
89 0.9% 99.4%  
90 1.0% 98.5%  
91 2% 98%  
92 4% 96%  
93 4% 92%  
94 6% 88%  
95 7% 82%  
96 5% 75%  
97 15% 70%  
98 5% 55% Median
99 7% 50%  
100 8% 43%  
101 13% 36%  
102 5% 22%  
103 4% 18%  
104 2% 14%  
105 3% 11%  
106 2% 8%  
107 1.0% 7%  
108 1.2% 6%  
109 1.3% 5%  
110 1.0% 3%  
111 0.6% 2%  
112 0.9% 2%  
113 0.6% 0.9%  
114 0% 0.3%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0% 0.1% Majority
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.9% 99.6%  
87 0.5% 98.7%  
88 2% 98%  
89 3% 97%  
90 0.6% 94%  
91 1.2% 93%  
92 2% 92%  
93 3% 90%  
94 5% 87%  
95 3% 82%  
96 10% 79%  
97 6% 70%  
98 14% 63% Median
99 16% 49%  
100 5% 34%  
101 8% 28%  
102 5% 20%  
103 3% 15%  
104 4% 12%  
105 4% 8%  
106 1.4% 4%  
107 1.5% 2%  
108 0.4% 0.8%  
109 0.1% 0.4%  
110 0.2% 0.3%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.2% 99.6%  
83 0.6% 99.4%  
84 1.2% 98.8%  
85 1.4% 98%  
86 3% 96%  
87 5% 93%  
88 5% 88%  
89 9% 83%  
90 7% 75%  
91 5% 68%  
92 12% 63%  
93 8% 51% Median
94 8% 43%  
95 10% 35%  
96 8% 25%  
97 6% 17%  
98 2% 11%  
99 1.5% 10%  
100 2% 8%  
101 2% 7%  
102 0.8% 4%  
103 0.5% 4%  
104 1.3% 3%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 0.5% 1.2%  
107 0.6% 0.7%  
108 0% 0.1% Last Result
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations