Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal and TVI, 18–21 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 34.5% 32.1–37.1% 31.4–37.8% 30.9–38.4% 29.7–39.6%
Partido Socialista 36.4% 33.4% 31.0–35.9% 30.3–36.6% 29.8–37.2% 28.6–38.5%
Chega 1.3% 6.4% 5.3–7.9% 5.0–8.3% 4.7–8.7% 4.2–9.4%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.8% 4.7–7.2% 4.4–7.6% 4.2–7.9% 3.7–8.6%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.8% 4.7–7.2% 4.4–7.6% 4.2–7.9% 3.7–8.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 4.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.4% 3.3–6.8% 2.9–7.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 1.6% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.8% 0.9–3.0% 0.7–3.5%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.2% 0.8–1.9% 0.6–2.1% 0.6–2.4% 0.4–2.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Social Democrata 79 101 91–107 89–108 87–109 84–111
Partido Socialista 108 92 85–101 84–102 82–105 79–110
Chega 1 11 8–13 7–14 6–15 4–18
Bloco de Esquerda 19 9 7–12 6–14 5–15 4–16
Iniciativa Liberal 1 9 6–13 6–14 6–14 5–15
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 7 5–10 5–11 5–13 3–15
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 1 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–4
LIVRE 1 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–3
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.1% 99.5%  
85 0.9% 99.4%  
86 0.8% 98.5%  
87 1.0% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 0.8% 95%  
90 2% 94%  
91 3% 93%  
92 4% 90%  
93 5% 86%  
94 4% 81%  
95 2% 77%  
96 2% 75%  
97 4% 73%  
98 9% 69%  
99 4% 60%  
100 5% 56%  
101 6% 51% Median
102 11% 45%  
103 10% 34%  
104 5% 25%  
105 3% 20%  
106 3% 17%  
107 7% 14%  
108 3% 7%  
109 2% 4%  
110 0.6% 2%  
111 0.8% 1.2%  
112 0.1% 0.4%  
113 0% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0.1% 0.1% Majority
117 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.6%  
80 0.8% 99.3%  
81 0.7% 98%  
82 2% 98%  
83 1.1% 96%  
84 1.5% 95%  
85 5% 94%  
86 4% 88%  
87 6% 85%  
88 5% 79%  
89 9% 73%  
90 4% 64%  
91 10% 60%  
92 7% 51% Median
93 6% 44%  
94 6% 37%  
95 4% 31%  
96 2% 28%  
97 3% 26%  
98 1.5% 22%  
99 7% 21%  
100 3% 14%  
101 3% 11%  
102 5% 9%  
103 0.4% 4%  
104 0.5% 3%  
105 0.4% 3%  
106 0.5% 2%  
107 0.8% 2%  
108 0.1% 1.1% Last Result
109 0.3% 0.9%  
110 0.4% 0.6%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.9% 100%  
5 0.5% 99.1%  
6 1.3% 98.6%  
7 4% 97%  
8 15% 93%  
9 8% 79%  
10 18% 70%  
11 39% 52% Median
12 2% 14%  
13 6% 11%  
14 2% 5%  
15 1.3% 3%  
16 0.4% 2%  
17 0.8% 1.4%  
18 0.2% 0.6%  
19 0.2% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.4% 99.9%  
4 0.5% 99.6%  
5 2% 99.1%  
6 3% 97%  
7 33% 94%  
8 9% 61%  
9 14% 52% Median
10 7% 38%  
11 10% 31%  
12 11% 21%  
13 3% 10%  
14 3% 6%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.7% 1.1%  
17 0.3% 0.4%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.3% 100%  
5 1.0% 99.6%  
6 13% 98.6%  
7 11% 85%  
8 14% 74%  
9 14% 60% Median
10 8% 47%  
11 15% 38%  
12 13% 23%  
13 2% 10%  
14 7% 8%  
15 1.1% 1.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100%  
3 0.9% 99.5%  
4 0.5% 98.6%  
5 31% 98%  
6 6% 68%  
7 16% 61% Median
8 28% 45%  
9 3% 17%  
10 6% 14%  
11 3% 8%  
12 1.0% 5% Last Result
13 2% 4%  
14 1.1% 2%  
15 0.9% 1.1%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100%  
1 50% 79% Median
2 26% 29%  
3 1.1% 3%  
4 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100%  
1 68% 73% Last Result, Median
2 4% 5%  
3 1.2% 1.3%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 108 15% 101–116 99–119 99–122 96–126
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 101 2% 94–109 92–112 91–114 87–119
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 98 0.9% 93–108 91–110 90–112 87–117
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 101 0.1% 91–107 89–108 87–109 84–111
Partido Socialista 108 92 0% 85–101 84–102 82–105 79–110

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.3% 99.6%  
97 1.1% 99.3%  
98 0.7% 98%  
99 3% 98%  
100 2% 95%  
101 5% 93%  
102 3% 88%  
103 5% 86%  
104 4% 81%  
105 10% 77%  
106 3% 67%  
107 6% 64%  
108 10% 58% Median
109 7% 49%  
110 8% 41%  
111 5% 34%  
112 2% 29%  
113 6% 26%  
114 2% 20%  
115 3% 18%  
116 6% 15% Majority
117 2% 9%  
118 2% 8%  
119 1.0% 6%  
120 1.4% 5%  
121 0.5% 3%  
122 0.9% 3%  
123 0.7% 2%  
124 0.3% 1.2%  
125 0.3% 0.9%  
126 0.2% 0.6%  
127 0.1% 0.4%  
128 0.2% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.4% 99.7%  
88 0.3% 99.3%  
89 0.7% 99.1%  
90 0.4% 98%  
91 1.5% 98%  
92 2% 96%  
93 1.1% 95%  
94 4% 94%  
95 4% 90%  
96 5% 86%  
97 6% 80%  
98 7% 74%  
99 6% 68%  
100 8% 61%  
101 10% 53% Median
102 5% 43%  
103 5% 38%  
104 3% 34%  
105 4% 30%  
106 4% 26%  
107 4% 22%  
108 5% 18%  
109 3% 13%  
110 1.1% 10%  
111 4% 9%  
112 1.3% 5%  
113 0.8% 4%  
114 0.9% 3%  
115 0.2% 2%  
116 0.4% 2% Majority
117 0.5% 1.4%  
118 0.3% 0.9%  
119 0.1% 0.5%  
120 0.1% 0.4%  
121 0.2% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.3% 99.6%  
88 0.5% 99.3%  
89 0.6% 98.8%  
90 2% 98%  
91 1.5% 96%  
92 5% 95%  
93 5% 90%  
94 6% 85%  
95 4% 79%  
96 7% 75%  
97 9% 68%  
98 10% 59%  
99 5% 49% Median
100 5% 44%  
101 4% 39%  
102 5% 35%  
103 4% 30%  
104 5% 26%  
105 2% 21%  
106 4% 19%  
107 4% 15%  
108 2% 11%  
109 3% 9%  
110 1.5% 6%  
111 1.0% 4%  
112 0.8% 3%  
113 0.6% 2%  
114 0.3% 2%  
115 0.7% 2%  
116 0.3% 0.9% Majority
117 0.2% 0.6%  
118 0.2% 0.4%  
119 0% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1% Last Result
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
85 0.9% 99.4%  
86 0.8% 98.5%  
87 0.9% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 0.8% 95%  
90 2% 94%  
91 3% 93%  
92 4% 90%  
93 5% 86%  
94 4% 81%  
95 2% 77%  
96 2% 75%  
97 4% 73%  
98 9% 69%  
99 4% 60%  
100 5% 56%  
101 5% 51% Median
102 11% 45%  
103 9% 34%  
104 5% 25%  
105 3% 20%  
106 3% 17%  
107 7% 14%  
108 3% 7%  
109 2% 4%  
110 0.6% 2%  
111 0.9% 1.3%  
112 0.1% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0.1% 0.1% Majority
117 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.6%  
80 0.8% 99.3%  
81 0.7% 98%  
82 2% 98%  
83 1.1% 96%  
84 1.5% 95%  
85 5% 94%  
86 4% 88%  
87 6% 85%  
88 5% 79%  
89 9% 73%  
90 4% 64%  
91 10% 60%  
92 7% 51% Median
93 6% 44%  
94 6% 37%  
95 4% 31%  
96 2% 28%  
97 3% 26%  
98 1.5% 22%  
99 7% 21%  
100 3% 14%  
101 3% 11%  
102 5% 9%  
103 0.4% 4%  
104 0.5% 3%  
105 0.4% 3%  
106 0.5% 2%  
107 0.8% 2%  
108 0.1% 1.1% Last Result
109 0.3% 0.9%  
110 0.4% 0.6%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations