Opinion Poll by ICS/ISCTE for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 18–24 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 35.0% 33.1–37.0% 32.6–37.5% 32.1–38.0% 31.2–39.0%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–36.0% 29.3–36.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Chega 1.3% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 96 91–104 89–106 88–108 85–111
Partido Social Democrata 79 94 87–101 85–102 84–103 80–106
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 9 7–14 7–15 6–15 5–16
Iniciativa Liberal 1 10 6–12 6–13 6–14 6–14
Chega 1 10 8–11 7–11 5–12 4–14
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 5–9 4–10 4–11 2–13
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 1 1–2 0–2 0–3 0–4
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0 0 0 0–1
LIVRE 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.6%  
86 0.7% 99.3%  
87 0.5% 98.6%  
88 2% 98%  
89 4% 96%  
90 2% 93%  
91 2% 91%  
92 7% 88%  
93 9% 82%  
94 8% 73%  
95 4% 65%  
96 12% 61% Median
97 5% 49%  
98 12% 44%  
99 7% 31%  
100 2% 24%  
101 4% 22%  
102 3% 19%  
103 4% 16%  
104 2% 12%  
105 3% 10%  
106 2% 7%  
107 2% 5%  
108 0.9% 3% Last Result
109 0.7% 2%  
110 0.2% 1.4%  
111 0.8% 1.2%  
112 0.2% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0% Majority

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
80 0.3% 99.8%  
81 0.2% 99.5%  
82 0.4% 99.3%  
83 0.9% 98.9%  
84 1.2% 98%  
85 3% 97%  
86 4% 94%  
87 2% 90%  
88 3% 88%  
89 7% 86%  
90 6% 78%  
91 4% 72%  
92 4% 68%  
93 9% 64%  
94 10% 55% Median
95 6% 45%  
96 4% 39%  
97 10% 35%  
98 8% 26%  
99 5% 18%  
100 2% 13%  
101 3% 11%  
102 4% 8%  
103 2% 4%  
104 0.8% 2%  
105 0.3% 0.8%  
106 0.1% 0.5%  
107 0.3% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.2% 100%  
6 2% 98.8%  
7 8% 97%  
8 16% 89%  
9 27% 74% Median
10 5% 47%  
11 3% 42%  
12 7% 39% Last Result
13 8% 32%  
14 15% 25%  
15 9% 10%  
16 0.7% 1.0%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 10% 99.9%  
7 3% 90%  
8 8% 87%  
9 20% 79%  
10 13% 59% Median
11 15% 46%  
12 25% 31%  
13 2% 6%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 2% 99.5%  
6 0.5% 97%  
7 4% 97%  
8 26% 93%  
9 9% 67%  
10 18% 59% Median
11 37% 41%  
12 2% 4%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100%  
3 2% 99.5%  
4 4% 98%  
5 9% 94%  
6 3% 85%  
7 61% 82% Median
8 7% 21%  
9 7% 13%  
10 3% 6%  
11 2% 4%  
12 0.6% 1.3%  
13 0.4% 0.7%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 46% 94% Median
2 44% 48%  
3 3% 4%  
4 1.2% 1.2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100%  
1 49% 50% Last Result, Median
2 0.8% 0.9%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda 139 114 38% 108–122 107–123 105–125 102–128
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 107 7% 100–115 100–116 99–118 95–121
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 103 2% 97–111 96–114 95–115 92–118
Partido Socialista 108 96 0% 91–104 89–106 88–108 85–111
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 94 0% 87–101 85–102 84–103 80–106

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.6%  
103 0.7% 99.4%  
104 0.8% 98.6%  
105 0.7% 98%  
106 2% 97%  
107 5% 96%  
108 3% 90%  
109 3% 87%  
110 4% 84%  
111 7% 80%  
112 9% 73% Median
113 9% 64%  
114 13% 55%  
115 4% 42%  
116 5% 38% Majority
117 5% 33%  
118 4% 28%  
119 5% 24%  
120 3% 19%  
121 5% 16%  
122 4% 11%  
123 3% 7%  
124 1.4% 5%  
125 1.4% 3%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.4% 1.1%  
128 0.3% 0.7%  
129 0.1% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.3% 99.9%  
95 0.3% 99.6%  
96 0.6% 99.3%  
97 0.6% 98.7%  
98 0.5% 98%  
99 2% 98%  
100 6% 95%  
101 4% 89%  
102 4% 85%  
103 5% 82%  
104 4% 77%  
105 8% 73% Median
106 8% 65%  
107 13% 57%  
108 7% 44%  
109 5% 38%  
110 4% 33%  
111 4% 29%  
112 8% 25%  
113 4% 17%  
114 3% 13%  
115 3% 10%  
116 3% 7% Majority
117 0.9% 4%  
118 1.5% 3%  
119 0.8% 2%  
120 0.3% 1.0% Last Result
121 0.3% 0.7%  
122 0.1% 0.4%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.8%  
92 0.3% 99.6%  
93 0.5% 99.3%  
94 1.1% 98.9%  
95 2% 98%  
96 2% 96%  
97 4% 94%  
98 2% 90%  
99 7% 88%  
100 8% 81%  
101 7% 73%  
102 6% 66%  
103 12% 59% Median
104 4% 47%  
105 11% 43%  
106 6% 33%  
107 4% 27%  
108 3% 23%  
109 3% 19%  
110 4% 17%  
111 3% 12%  
112 2% 9%  
113 2% 7%  
114 2% 6%  
115 1.4% 4%  
116 0.5% 2% Majority
117 0.5% 2%  
118 0.8% 1.2%  
119 0.2% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.6%  
86 0.7% 99.3%  
87 0.5% 98.6%  
88 2% 98%  
89 4% 96%  
90 2% 93%  
91 2% 91%  
92 7% 88%  
93 9% 82%  
94 8% 73%  
95 4% 65%  
96 12% 61% Median
97 5% 49%  
98 12% 44%  
99 7% 31%  
100 2% 24%  
101 4% 22%  
102 3% 19%  
103 4% 16%  
104 2% 12%  
105 3% 10%  
106 2% 7%  
107 2% 5%  
108 0.9% 3% Last Result
109 0.7% 2%  
110 0.2% 1.4%  
111 0.8% 1.2%  
112 0.2% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0% Majority

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.8%  
81 0.2% 99.5%  
82 0.4% 99.3%  
83 0.9% 98.9%  
84 1.2% 98% Last Result
85 3% 97%  
86 4% 94%  
87 2% 90%  
88 3% 88%  
89 7% 86%  
90 6% 78%  
91 4% 72%  
92 4% 68%  
93 9% 64%  
94 10% 55% Median
95 6% 45%  
96 4% 39%  
97 10% 35%  
98 8% 26%  
99 5% 18%  
100 2% 13%  
101 3% 11%  
102 4% 8%  
103 2% 4%  
104 0.8% 2%  
105 0.3% 0.8%  
106 0.1% 0.5%  
107 0.3% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations