Opinion Poll by ICS/ISCTE for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 18–24 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 35.0% 33.1–37.0% 32.6–37.5% 32.1–38.0% 31.2–39.0%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–36.0% 29.3–36.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Chega 1.3% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 96 91–104 89–106 88–108 85–111
Partido Social Democrata 79 94 87–101 85–102 84–103 80–106
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 9 7–14 7–15 6–15 5–16
Iniciativa Liberal 1 10 6–12 6–13 6–14 6–14
Chega 1 10 8–11 7–11 5–12 4–14
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 5–9 4–10 4–11 2–13
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 1 1–2 0–2 0–3 0–4
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0 0 0 0–1
LIVRE 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.6%  
86 0.7% 99.3%  
87 0.5% 98.6%  
88 2% 98%  
89 4% 96%  
90 2% 93%  
91 2% 91%  
92 7% 88%  
93 9% 82%  
94 8% 73%  
95 4% 65%  
96 12% 61% Median
97 5% 49%  
98 12% 44%  
99 7% 31%  
100 2% 24%  
101 4% 22%  
102 3% 19%  
103 4% 16%  
104 2% 12%  
105 3% 10%  
106 2% 7%  
107 2% 5%  
108 0.9% 3% Last Result
109 0.7% 2%  
110 0.2% 1.4%  
111 0.8% 1.2%  
112 0.2% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0% Majority

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
80 0.3% 99.8%  
81 0.2% 99.5%  
82 0.4% 99.3%  
83 0.9% 98.9%  
84 1.2% 98%  
85 3% 97%  
86 4% 94%  
87 2% 90%  
88 3% 88%  
89 7% 86%  
90 6% 78%  
91 4% 72%  
92 4% 68%  
93 9% 64%  
94 10% 55% Median
95 6% 45%  
96 4% 39%  
97 10% 35%  
98 8% 26%  
99 5% 18%  
100 2% 13%  
101 3% 11%  
102 4% 8%  
103 2% 4%  
104 0.8% 2%  
105 0.3% 0.8%  
106 0.1% 0.5%  
107 0.3% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.2% 100%  
6 2% 98.8%  
7 8% 97%  
8 16% 89%  
9 27% 74% Median
10 5% 47%  
11 3% 42%  
12 7% 39% Last Result
13 8% 32%  
14 15% 25%  
15 9% 10%  
16 0.7% 1.0%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 10% 99.9%  
7 3% 90%  
8 8% 87%  
9 20% 79%  
10 13% 59% Median
11 15% 46%  
12 25% 31%  
13 2% 6%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 2% 99.5%  
6 0.5% 97%  
7 4% 97%  
8 26% 93%  
9 9% 67%  
10 18% 59% Median
11 37% 41%  
12 2% 4%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100%  
3 2% 99.5%  
4 4% 98%  
5 9% 94%  
6 3% 85%  
7 61% 82% Median
8 7% 21%  
9 7% 13%  
10 3% 6%  
11 2% 4%  
12 0.6% 1.3%  
13 0.4% 0.7%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 46% 94% Median
2 44% 48%  
3 3% 4%  
4 1.2% 1.2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100%  
1 49% 50% Last Result, Median
2 0.8% 0.9%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda 139 114 38% 108–122 107–123 105–125 102–128
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 107 7% 100–115 100–116 99–118 95–121
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 103 2% 97–111 96–114 95–115 92–118
Partido Socialista 108 96 0% 91–104 89–106 88–108 85–111
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 94 0% 87–101 85–102 84–103 80–106

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.6%  
103 0.7% 99.4%  
104 0.8% 98.6%  
105 0.7% 98%  
106 2% 97%  
107 5% 96%  
108 3% 90%  
109 3% 87%  
110 4% 84%  
111 7% 80%  
112 9% 73% Median
113 9% 64%  
114 13% 55%  
115 4% 42%  
116 5% 38% Majority
117 5% 33%  
118 4% 28%  
119 5% 24%  
120 3% 19%  
121 5% 16%  
122 4% 11%  
123 3% 7%  
124 1.4% 5%  
125 1.4% 3%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.4% 1.1%  
128 0.3% 0.7%  
129 0.1% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.3% 99.9%  
95 0.3% 99.6%  
96 0.6% 99.3%  
97 0.6% 98.7%  
98 0.5% 98%  
99 2% 98%  
100 6% 95%  
101 4% 89%  
102 4% 85%  
103 5% 82%  
104 4% 77%  
105 8% 73% Median
106 8% 65%  
107 13% 57%  
108 7% 44%  
109 5% 38%  
110 4% 33%  
111 4% 29%  
112 8% 25%  
113 4% 17%  
114 3% 13%  
115 3% 10%  
116 3% 7% Majority
117 0.9% 4%  
118 1.5% 3%  
119 0.8% 2%  
120 0.3% 1.0% Last Result
121 0.3% 0.7%  
122 0.1% 0.4%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.8%  
92 0.3% 99.6%  
93 0.5% 99.3%  
94 1.1% 98.9%  
95 2% 98%  
96 2% 96%  
97 4% 94%  
98 2% 90%  
99 7% 88%  
100 8% 81%  
101 7% 73%  
102 6% 66%  
103 12% 59% Median
104 4% 47%  
105 11% 43%  
106 6% 33%  
107 4% 27%  
108 3% 23%  
109 3% 19%  
110 4% 17%  
111 3% 12%  
112 2% 9%  
113 2% 7%  
114 2% 6%  
115 1.4% 4%  
116 0.5% 2% Majority
117 0.5% 2%  
118 0.8% 1.2%  
119 0.2% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.6%  
86 0.7% 99.3%  
87 0.5% 98.6%  
88 2% 98%  
89 4% 96%  
90 2% 93%  
91 2% 91%  
92 7% 88%  
93 9% 82%  
94 8% 73%  
95 4% 65%  
96 12% 61% Median
97 5% 49%  
98 12% 44%  
99 7% 31%  
100 2% 24%  
101 4% 22%  
102 3% 19%  
103 4% 16%  
104 2% 12%  
105 3% 10%  
106 2% 7%  
107 2% 5%  
108 0.9% 3% Last Result
109 0.7% 2%  
110 0.2% 1.4%  
111 0.8% 1.2%  
112 0.2% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0% Majority

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.8%  
81 0.2% 99.5%  
82 0.4% 99.3%  
83 0.9% 98.9%  
84 1.2% 98% Last Result
85 3% 97%  
86 4% 94%  
87 2% 90%  
88 3% 88%  
89 7% 86%  
90 6% 78%  
91 4% 72%  
92 4% 68%  
93 9% 64%  
94 10% 55% Median
95 6% 45%  
96 4% 39%  
97 10% 35%  
98 8% 26%  
99 5% 18%  
100 2% 13%  
101 3% 11%  
102 4% 8%  
103 2% 4%  
104 0.8% 2%  
105 0.3% 0.8%  
106 0.1% 0.5%  
107 0.3% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations