Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal and TVI, 21–24 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 37.0% 34.6–39.6% 33.9–40.3% 33.3–40.9% 32.1–42.2%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 31.4% 29.1–33.9% 28.4–34.6% 27.8–35.2% 26.7–36.4%
Chega 1.3% 7.6% 6.3–9.1% 6.0–9.6% 5.7–10.0% 5.2–10.7%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.8% 4.7–7.2% 4.4–7.6% 4.2–7.9% 3.7–8.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 4.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.1–5.9% 2.9–6.2% 2.6–6.9%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 3.1% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–4.8% 1.7–5.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.1–3.0% 1.0–3.2% 0.8–3.7%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.5% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.6–3.3%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.0% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.5–2.1% 0.3–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 107 97–115 95–118 93–119 89–122
Partido Social Democrata 79 88 81–98 79–99 77–101 74–105
Chega 1 12 11–17 10–19 9–20 8–24
Bloco de Esquerda 19 8 7–13 5–14 5–15 3–17
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 6 5–9 4–9 3–11 2–14
Iniciativa Liberal 1 4 3–6 3–6 3–6 1–9
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 1 0–2 0–4 0–4 0–4
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
LIVRE 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–3

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.4% 99.6%  
90 0.4% 99.1%  
91 0.3% 98.8%  
92 0.8% 98%  
93 1.2% 98%  
94 1.0% 97%  
95 3% 96%  
96 2% 93%  
97 2% 91%  
98 3% 89%  
99 2% 87%  
100 5% 84%  
101 3% 80%  
102 3% 77%  
103 3% 74%  
104 4% 72%  
105 12% 68%  
106 4% 56%  
107 10% 52% Median
108 4% 43% Last Result
109 8% 39%  
110 9% 31%  
111 3% 22%  
112 2% 20%  
113 4% 18%  
114 3% 14%  
115 2% 11%  
116 0.7% 10% Majority
117 1.2% 9%  
118 4% 8%  
119 2% 4%  
120 0.5% 2%  
121 0.4% 1.1%  
122 0.3% 0.7%  
123 0.2% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.6%  
75 0.4% 99.3%  
76 0.9% 98.9%  
77 0.6% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 2% 96% Last Result
80 2% 93%  
81 4% 92%  
82 4% 87%  
83 4% 84%  
84 7% 79%  
85 5% 72%  
86 2% 67%  
87 5% 66%  
88 13% 60% Median
89 4% 48%  
90 7% 44%  
91 10% 37%  
92 4% 27%  
93 5% 23%  
94 3% 19%  
95 1.0% 16%  
96 2% 15%  
97 2% 12%  
98 3% 10%  
99 3% 7%  
100 1.3% 4%  
101 0.9% 3%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 0.2% 1.1%  
104 0.3% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.8%  
8 1.4% 99.8%  
9 2% 98%  
10 5% 96%  
11 29% 91%  
12 21% 62% Median
13 12% 41%  
14 7% 29%  
15 5% 22%  
16 3% 18%  
17 6% 14%  
18 3% 8%  
19 3% 6%  
20 0.6% 3%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 0.5% 1.2%  
23 0.2% 0.7%  
24 0.2% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.4%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.7% 99.9%  
4 0.6% 99.2%  
5 4% 98.6%  
6 2% 95%  
7 35% 93%  
8 12% 58% Median
9 5% 46%  
10 12% 41%  
11 11% 29%  
12 7% 18%  
13 5% 12%  
14 2% 7%  
15 2% 4%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.7%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.3% 100%  
3 2% 98.7%  
4 3% 97%  
5 35% 94%  
6 16% 59% Median
7 17% 43%  
8 13% 26%  
9 8% 12%  
10 2% 5%  
11 0.3% 3%  
12 0.9% 2% Last Result
13 0.6% 2%  
14 0.6% 0.9%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100% Last Result
2 1.3% 99.3%  
3 35% 98%  
4 31% 63% Median
5 17% 31%  
6 13% 15%  
7 0.4% 2%  
8 0.4% 1.1%  
9 0.5% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 36% 83% Median
2 37% 47%  
3 4% 10%  
4 6% 6% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Median
1 31% 34%  
2 3% 4%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100%  
1 52% 56% Last Result, Median
2 3% 4%  
3 1.1% 1.2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 122 80% 113–130 111–132 109–134 103–138
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 116 50% 107–125 105–126 103–127 98–131
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 114 35% 103–122 100–123 98–126 94–128
Partido Socialista 108 107 10% 97–115 95–118 93–119 89–122
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 89 0% 81–98 79–100 78–101 74–105

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.2% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.2% 99.5%  
105 0.2% 99.3%  
106 0.3% 99.1%  
107 0.3% 98.8%  
108 0.4% 98%  
109 0.9% 98%  
110 2% 97%  
111 0.8% 95%  
112 3% 95%  
113 4% 91%  
114 3% 87%  
115 4% 84%  
116 2% 80% Majority
117 3% 79%  
118 2% 76%  
119 2% 73%  
120 6% 72%  
121 11% 66% Median
122 8% 55%  
123 8% 47%  
124 6% 38%  
125 4% 32%  
126 5% 28%  
127 2% 23%  
128 3% 21%  
129 2% 17%  
130 7% 15%  
131 2% 8%  
132 1.2% 6%  
133 1.4% 5%  
134 2% 3%  
135 0.4% 1.5%  
136 0.2% 1.0%  
137 0.2% 0.8%  
138 0.3% 0.5%  
139 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.7%  
98 0.2% 99.6%  
99 0.3% 99.4%  
100 0.2% 99.1%  
101 0.3% 98.8%  
102 0.6% 98%  
103 0.7% 98%  
104 1.0% 97%  
105 3% 96%  
106 3% 93%  
107 4% 90%  
108 3% 87%  
109 3% 83%  
110 2% 80%  
111 2% 78%  
112 3% 75%  
113 3% 73%  
114 7% 70%  
115 13% 63% Median
116 5% 50% Majority
117 14% 46%  
118 6% 32%  
119 2% 26%  
120 3% 23%  
121 1.5% 20%  
122 5% 19%  
123 2% 14%  
124 2% 12%  
125 5% 10%  
126 1.5% 5%  
127 1.5% 4% Last Result
128 0.9% 2%  
129 0.4% 1.4%  
130 0.3% 1.0%  
131 0.2% 0.6%  
132 0.1% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 0.4% 99.5%  
96 0.3% 99.0%  
97 0.5% 98.8%  
98 1.2% 98%  
99 0.7% 97%  
100 2% 96%  
101 1.3% 95%  
102 3% 93%  
103 1.1% 91%  
104 2% 90%  
105 4% 88%  
106 2% 84%  
107 4% 82%  
108 3% 78%  
109 3% 75%  
110 5% 72%  
111 8% 67%  
112 4% 59%  
113 4% 54% Median
114 9% 50%  
115 6% 41%  
116 5% 35% Majority
117 5% 30%  
118 6% 25%  
119 1.1% 19%  
120 3% 18% Last Result
121 2% 15%  
122 4% 13%  
123 5% 9%  
124 1.1% 5%  
125 0.7% 3%  
126 1.3% 3%  
127 0.7% 1.5%  
128 0.3% 0.8%  
129 0.3% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.4% 99.6%  
90 0.4% 99.1%  
91 0.3% 98.8%  
92 0.8% 98%  
93 1.2% 98%  
94 1.0% 97%  
95 3% 96%  
96 2% 93%  
97 2% 91%  
98 3% 89%  
99 2% 87%  
100 5% 84%  
101 3% 80%  
102 3% 77%  
103 3% 74%  
104 4% 72%  
105 12% 68%  
106 4% 56%  
107 10% 52% Median
108 4% 43% Last Result
109 8% 39%  
110 9% 31%  
111 3% 22%  
112 2% 20%  
113 4% 18%  
114 3% 14%  
115 2% 11%  
116 0.7% 10% Majority
117 1.2% 9%  
118 4% 8%  
119 2% 4%  
120 0.5% 2%  
121 0.4% 1.1%  
122 0.3% 0.7%  
123 0.2% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.2% 99.4%  
76 0.8% 99.2%  
77 0.8% 98%  
78 1.4% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 2% 94%  
81 3% 93%  
82 4% 90%  
83 5% 86%  
84 7% 81% Last Result
85 4% 74%  
86 3% 69%  
87 5% 67%  
88 8% 61% Median
89 7% 53%  
90 6% 46%  
91 10% 39%  
92 2% 29%  
93 7% 27%  
94 3% 20%  
95 1.2% 16%  
96 2% 15%  
97 2% 13%  
98 3% 12%  
99 2% 8%  
100 3% 6%  
101 1.2% 3%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 0.5% 1.4%  
104 0.2% 0.9%  
105 0.3% 0.7%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations