Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal and TVI, 22–25 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 36.7% 34.2–39.2% 33.5–40.0% 32.9–40.6% 31.8–41.8%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 30.9% 28.6–33.4% 27.9–34.1% 27.4–34.7% 26.3–35.9%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 6.7% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.7% 5.0–9.0% 4.5–9.8%
Chega 1.3% 6.7% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.7% 5.0–9.0% 4.5–9.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 4.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.1–5.9% 2.9–6.2% 2.6–6.9%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 3.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.7–5.3% 2.5–5.6% 2.2–6.2%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.1–3.0% 1.0–3.2% 0.8–3.7%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.6% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.8% 0.9–3.0% 0.7–3.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 1.0% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.5–2.1% 0.3–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 105 96–114 94–117 92–118 89–122
Partido Social Democrata 79 88 79–98 78–98 76–99 73–104
Bloco de Esquerda 19 12 8–16 7–17 7–18 7–20
Chega 1 11 9–14 8–15 8–18 5–19
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 6 5–8 4–9 3–10 2–13
Iniciativa Liberal 1 5 3–6 3–8 3–9 3–11
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–4
LIVRE 1 1 1–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.7%  
89 0.2% 99.6%  
90 0.6% 99.3%  
91 0.4% 98.7%  
92 1.0% 98%  
93 1.3% 97%  
94 2% 96%  
95 3% 94%  
96 5% 91%  
97 8% 86%  
98 3% 78%  
99 3% 75%  
100 3% 72%  
101 3% 69%  
102 3% 66%  
103 3% 63%  
104 7% 60%  
105 10% 53% Median
106 8% 44%  
107 3% 36%  
108 4% 33% Last Result
109 6% 28%  
110 3% 22%  
111 2% 20%  
112 2% 18%  
113 6% 16%  
114 2% 10%  
115 1.3% 8%  
116 1.5% 7% Majority
117 3% 5%  
118 1.1% 3%  
119 0.6% 2%  
120 0.2% 0.9%  
121 0.1% 0.7%  
122 0.4% 0.6%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.6%  
74 0.5% 99.5%  
75 0.7% 99.0%  
76 2% 98%  
77 1.1% 96%  
78 2% 95%  
79 5% 93% Last Result
80 6% 87%  
81 4% 82%  
82 6% 78%  
83 4% 71%  
84 4% 67%  
85 3% 64%  
86 4% 61%  
87 6% 57%  
88 5% 52% Median
89 5% 47%  
90 3% 42%  
91 2% 39%  
92 3% 36%  
93 4% 33%  
94 5% 29%  
95 2% 24%  
96 6% 22%  
97 5% 16%  
98 6% 10%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.4% 2%  
101 0.3% 2%  
102 0.4% 1.2%  
103 0.3% 0.8%  
104 0.2% 0.5%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.2% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.2% 99.9%  
6 0.1% 99.8%  
7 9% 99.7%  
8 5% 91%  
9 6% 86%  
10 11% 80%  
11 13% 69%  
12 11% 57% Median
13 15% 46%  
14 5% 31%  
15 12% 26%  
16 8% 13%  
17 1.1% 6%  
18 3% 5%  
19 0.9% 1.5% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 0.2% 99.5%  
6 0.5% 99.3%  
7 0.7% 98.9%  
8 7% 98%  
9 9% 91%  
10 7% 82%  
11 44% 74% Median
12 3% 30%  
13 12% 27%  
14 7% 15%  
15 4% 8%  
16 0.7% 5%  
17 1.3% 4%  
18 1.3% 3%  
19 0.8% 1.2%  
20 0.2% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.4% 100%  
3 2% 98.6%  
4 5% 96%  
5 38% 91%  
6 17% 53% Median
7 15% 36%  
8 13% 21%  
9 4% 8%  
10 2% 4%  
11 0.5% 2%  
12 0.6% 2% Last Result
13 0.6% 1.0%  
14 0.3% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.1% 100%  
3 10% 99.9%  
4 19% 90%  
5 22% 71% Median
6 40% 49%  
7 2% 9%  
8 3% 7%  
9 2% 4%  
10 1.0% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.7%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100%  
1 41% 55% Median
2 13% 14%  
3 1.0% 2%  
4 0.5% 0.6%  
5 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 60% 95% Last Result, Median
2 20% 35%  
3 12% 15%  
4 2% 3%  
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Median
1 21% 24%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 123 79% 114–133 113–134 111–135 107–138
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 116 56% 108–127 107–128 105–129 101–132
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 111 25% 101–120 100–123 98–124 95–127
Partido Socialista 108 105 7% 96–114 94–117 92–118 89–122
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 89 0% 80–98 79–99 77–100 74–104

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.3% 99.6%  
108 0.4% 99.3%  
109 0.5% 98.9%  
110 0.6% 98%  
111 0.8% 98%  
112 2% 97%  
113 5% 95%  
114 4% 90%  
115 7% 86%  
116 5% 79% Majority
117 5% 75%  
118 3% 70%  
119 4% 67%  
120 4% 63%  
121 4% 59%  
122 2% 55%  
123 5% 52% Median
124 5% 47%  
125 5% 42%  
126 4% 37%  
127 7% 32%  
128 2% 25%  
129 2% 23%  
130 2% 21%  
131 2% 19%  
132 2% 17%  
133 8% 15%  
134 3% 7%  
135 2% 4%  
136 0.8% 2%  
137 0.4% 1.3%  
138 0.4% 0.9%  
139 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0.2% 99.5%  
102 0.6% 99.4%  
103 0.4% 98.7%  
104 0.6% 98%  
105 1.1% 98%  
106 1.2% 97%  
107 3% 95%  
108 7% 92%  
109 7% 85%  
110 5% 78%  
111 3% 73%  
112 3% 70%  
113 2% 67%  
114 3% 64%  
115 5% 61%  
116 6% 56% Majority
117 5% 50% Median
118 5% 45%  
119 3% 40%  
120 6% 37%  
121 5% 31%  
122 5% 26%  
123 1.2% 21%  
124 0.9% 19%  
125 3% 18%  
126 4% 16%  
127 3% 12% Last Result
128 5% 8%  
129 0.8% 3%  
130 0.9% 2%  
131 0.6% 1.3%  
132 0.2% 0.7%  
133 0.2% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.7%  
95 0.4% 99.6%  
96 0.4% 99.2%  
97 0.4% 98.8%  
98 0.9% 98%  
99 1.4% 97%  
100 3% 96%  
101 4% 93%  
102 6% 89%  
103 3% 84%  
104 3% 81%  
105 4% 77%  
106 3% 74%  
107 4% 70%  
108 4% 67%  
109 3% 62%  
110 8% 60%  
111 7% 52% Median
112 8% 45%  
113 5% 37%  
114 3% 33%  
115 5% 29%  
116 3% 25% Majority
117 3% 21%  
118 5% 19%  
119 2% 14%  
120 3% 12% Last Result
121 1.3% 9%  
122 2% 8%  
123 2% 6%  
124 1.2% 3%  
125 0.6% 2%  
126 0.7% 1.5%  
127 0.3% 0.8%  
128 0.3% 0.5%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.7%  
89 0.2% 99.6%  
90 0.6% 99.3%  
91 0.4% 98.7%  
92 1.0% 98%  
93 1.3% 97%  
94 2% 96%  
95 3% 94%  
96 5% 91%  
97 8% 86%  
98 3% 78%  
99 3% 75%  
100 3% 72%  
101 3% 69%  
102 3% 66%  
103 3% 63%  
104 7% 60%  
105 10% 53% Median
106 8% 44%  
107 3% 36%  
108 4% 33% Last Result
109 6% 28%  
110 3% 22%  
111 2% 20%  
112 2% 18%  
113 6% 16%  
114 2% 10%  
115 1.3% 8%  
116 1.5% 7% Majority
117 3% 5%  
118 1.1% 3%  
119 0.6% 2%  
120 0.2% 0.9%  
121 0.1% 0.7%  
122 0.4% 0.6%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.5%  
75 0.6% 99.3%  
76 1.0% 98.7%  
77 1.1% 98%  
78 1.4% 97%  
79 4% 95%  
80 7% 91%  
81 3% 84%  
82 6% 81%  
83 5% 75%  
84 4% 70% Last Result
85 4% 66%  
86 2% 63%  
87 6% 61%  
88 4% 55%  
89 5% 51% Median
90 4% 46%  
91 3% 41%  
92 2% 39%  
93 4% 37%  
94 5% 33%  
95 4% 28%  
96 6% 24%  
97 6% 18%  
98 3% 12%  
99 7% 10%  
100 1.0% 3%  
101 0.5% 2%  
102 0.4% 2%  
103 0.3% 1.2%  
104 0.4% 0.9%  
105 0.1% 0.4%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations