Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP for Público and RTP, 19–26 January 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 36.4% | 36.0% | 34.7–37.3% | 34.3–37.7% | 34.0–38.0% | 33.4–38.7% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 27.8% | 33.0% | 31.7–34.3% | 31.4–34.7% | 31.0–35.0% | 30.4–35.6% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 9.5% | 6.0% | 5.4–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.5% |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1.3% | 6.0% | 5.4–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.5% |
| Chega | 1.3% | 6.0% | 5.4–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.5% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.5–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.2–6.0% | 3.9–6.3% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% |
| LIVRE | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 98 | 94–104 | 93–106 | 92–107 | 90–109 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 79 | 93 | 87–97 | 85–98 | 85–99 | 83–100 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 9 | 7–12 | 7–13 | 7–14 | 7–14 |
| Iniciativa Liberal | 1 | 9 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 6–12 | 6–13 |
| Chega | 1 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 12 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–11 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 5 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 4 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| LIVRE | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 92 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 93 | 4% | 97% | |
| 94 | 8% | 93% | |
| 95 | 13% | 85% | |
| 96 | 4% | 71% | |
| 97 | 10% | 67% | |
| 98 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 99 | 4% | 44% | |
| 100 | 3% | 40% | |
| 101 | 6% | 37% | |
| 102 | 9% | 31% | |
| 103 | 8% | 21% | |
| 104 | 5% | 14% | |
| 105 | 2% | 9% | |
| 106 | 4% | 7% | |
| 107 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 108 | 1.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 109 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 84 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 85 | 4% | 98% | |
| 86 | 3% | 93% | |
| 87 | 5% | 91% | |
| 88 | 8% | 86% | |
| 89 | 6% | 78% | |
| 90 | 7% | 72% | |
| 91 | 8% | 65% | |
| 92 | 3% | 57% | |
| 93 | 4% | 54% | Median |
| 94 | 16% | 50% | |
| 95 | 11% | 34% | |
| 96 | 12% | 23% | |
| 97 | 3% | 11% | |
| 98 | 4% | 8% | |
| 99 | 2% | 4% | |
| 100 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 21% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 12% | 79% | |
| 9 | 32% | 67% | Median |
| 10 | 18% | 35% | |
| 11 | 7% | 18% | |
| 12 | 4% | 10% | |
| 13 | 3% | 6% | |
| 14 | 3% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Iniciativa Liberal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 4% | 97% | |
| 8 | 17% | 93% | |
| 9 | 32% | 76% | Median |
| 10 | 15% | 44% | |
| 11 | 9% | 29% | |
| 12 | 19% | 20% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Chega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 19% | 97% | |
| 9 | 9% | 77% | |
| 10 | 47% | 68% | Median |
| 11 | 21% | 22% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 9% | 100% | |
| 6 | 37% | 91% | |
| 7 | 23% | 54% | Median |
| 8 | 27% | 32% | |
| 9 | 3% | 5% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 34% | 100% | |
| 1 | 61% | 66% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 1 | 23% | 99.1% | |
| 2 | 76% | 76% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
LIVRE
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 75% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 23% | 25% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 139 | 114 | 41% | 110–120 | 109–122 | 108–123 | 107–125 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 127 | 107 | 3% | 103–114 | 102–115 | 102–116 | 99–118 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 120 | 104 | 0.7% | 101–112 | 100–113 | 98–114 | 97–116 |
| Partido Socialista | 108 | 98 | 0% | 94–104 | 93–106 | 92–107 | 90–109 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 84 | 94 | 0% | 87–98 | 85–99 | 85–100 | 83–101 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 107 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 108 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 109 | 4% | 97% | |
| 110 | 8% | 92% | |
| 111 | 8% | 84% | |
| 112 | 11% | 77% | |
| 113 | 13% | 66% | |
| 114 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 115 | 6% | 47% | |
| 116 | 5% | 41% | Majority |
| 117 | 5% | 36% | |
| 118 | 9% | 31% | |
| 119 | 7% | 22% | |
| 120 | 5% | 14% | |
| 121 | 3% | 10% | |
| 122 | 4% | 7% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 125 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 101 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 102 | 3% | 98% | |
| 103 | 6% | 94% | |
| 104 | 9% | 89% | |
| 105 | 12% | 79% | |
| 106 | 7% | 67% | |
| 107 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 108 | 6% | 46% | |
| 109 | 6% | 40% | |
| 110 | 4% | 34% | |
| 111 | 8% | 30% | |
| 112 | 8% | 22% | |
| 113 | 4% | 14% | |
| 114 | 3% | 10% | |
| 115 | 4% | 7% | |
| 116 | 1.4% | 3% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 99 | 2% | 97% | |
| 100 | 5% | 95% | |
| 101 | 8% | 90% | |
| 102 | 13% | 82% | |
| 103 | 7% | 70% | |
| 104 | 14% | 63% | |
| 105 | 4% | 49% | Median |
| 106 | 4% | 45% | |
| 107 | 4% | 41% | |
| 108 | 6% | 37% | |
| 109 | 9% | 31% | |
| 110 | 6% | 22% | |
| 111 | 5% | 15% | |
| 112 | 2% | 10% | |
| 113 | 4% | 8% | |
| 114 | 2% | 4% | |
| 115 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 0.7% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 91 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 92 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 93 | 4% | 97% | |
| 94 | 8% | 93% | |
| 95 | 13% | 85% | |
| 96 | 4% | 71% | |
| 97 | 10% | 67% | |
| 98 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 99 | 4% | 44% | |
| 100 | 3% | 40% | |
| 101 | 6% | 37% | |
| 102 | 9% | 31% | |
| 103 | 8% | 21% | |
| 104 | 5% | 14% | |
| 105 | 2% | 9% | |
| 106 | 4% | 7% | |
| 107 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 108 | 1.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 109 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 84 | 1.2% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 85 | 4% | 98% | |
| 86 | 2% | 94% | |
| 87 | 4% | 93% | |
| 88 | 6% | 89% | |
| 89 | 7% | 83% | |
| 90 | 6% | 76% | |
| 91 | 8% | 70% | |
| 92 | 6% | 62% | |
| 93 | 4% | 56% | |
| 94 | 3% | 52% | Median |
| 95 | 15% | 49% | |
| 96 | 12% | 33% | |
| 97 | 11% | 21% | |
| 98 | 3% | 10% | |
| 99 | 4% | 7% | |
| 100 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 101 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: CESOP–UCP
- Commissioner(s): Público and RTP
- Fieldwork period: 19–26 January 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2192
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.61%