Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal and TVI, 23–26 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 36.7% 34.2–39.2% 33.5–40.0% 32.9–40.6% 31.8–41.8%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 31.2% 28.9–33.7% 28.3–34.4% 27.7–35.1% 26.6–36.3%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 6.1% 5.0–7.5% 4.7–7.9% 4.5–8.3% 4.0–9.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.8% 4.7–7.2% 4.4–7.6% 4.2–7.9% 3.7–8.6%
Chega 1.3% 5.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.8–6.8% 3.6–7.1% 3.2–7.8%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 4.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.1–5.9% 2.9–6.2% 2.6–6.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 2.1% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.4% 1.2–3.6% 1.0–4.1%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.1–3.0% 1.0–3.2% 0.8–3.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 1.0% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.5–2.1% 0.3–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 105 95–113 93–115 92–118 88–121
Partido Social Democrata 79 88 80–97 78–99 77–101 74–104
Bloco de Esquerda 19 10 7–15 7–15 7–15 5–18
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 9 7–15 6–15 5–16 5–18
Chega 1 8 4–11 4–11 4–11 3–13
Iniciativa Liberal 1 6 4–8 4–10 3–11 3–12
CDS–Partido Popular 5 1 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–4
LIVRE 1 1 1–3 1–3 1–4 0–4
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.7%  
88 0.3% 99.6%  
89 0.3% 99.3%  
90 0.2% 99.0%  
91 0.7% 98.8%  
92 1.5% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 1.4% 95%  
95 4% 93%  
96 2% 89%  
97 2% 87%  
98 2% 85%  
99 2% 84%  
100 10% 82%  
101 3% 72%  
102 4% 68%  
103 4% 65%  
104 8% 61%  
105 6% 53% Median
106 8% 48%  
107 5% 40%  
108 5% 34% Last Result
109 3% 29%  
110 4% 26%  
111 4% 23%  
112 5% 18%  
113 7% 13%  
114 0.8% 7%  
115 2% 6%  
116 0.4% 4% Majority
117 1.0% 4%  
118 0.7% 3%  
119 1.4% 2%  
120 0.1% 0.6%  
121 0.2% 0.5%  
122 0.1% 0.3%  
123 0.2% 0.2%  
124 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.6%  
75 0.4% 99.4%  
76 1.1% 99.0%  
77 2% 98%  
78 0.9% 96%  
79 3% 95% Last Result
80 3% 92%  
81 2% 89%  
82 4% 87%  
83 6% 83%  
84 5% 77%  
85 3% 72%  
86 3% 69%  
87 9% 66%  
88 11% 58% Median
89 9% 47%  
90 4% 38%  
91 8% 34%  
92 2% 26%  
93 5% 24%  
94 3% 19%  
95 2% 16%  
96 2% 14%  
97 4% 12%  
98 3% 8%  
99 1.1% 5%  
100 2% 4%  
101 0.8% 3%  
102 0.6% 2%  
103 0.6% 1.2%  
104 0.3% 0.6%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.3% 99.8%  
5 0.6% 99.5%  
6 0.4% 98.9%  
7 23% 98.6%  
8 9% 75%  
9 13% 66%  
10 5% 53% Median
11 7% 47%  
12 5% 40%  
13 9% 35%  
14 15% 26%  
15 8% 11%  
16 1.2% 2%  
17 0.4% 1.3%  
18 0.6% 0.9%  
19 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 3% 96%  
7 9% 93%  
8 23% 84%  
9 20% 61% Median
10 11% 42%  
11 5% 31%  
12 2% 26% Last Result
13 8% 24%  
14 5% 15%  
15 7% 11%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.8% 2%  
18 0.5% 1.0%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.1% 100%  
3 2% 99.9%  
4 19% 98%  
5 3% 79%  
6 6% 76%  
7 8% 70%  
8 32% 62% Median
9 4% 29%  
10 13% 25%  
11 11% 12%  
12 0.3% 1.0%  
13 0.2% 0.7%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 14% 97%  
5 21% 84%  
6 39% 63% Median
7 11% 24%  
8 5% 13%  
9 3% 8%  
10 2% 6%  
11 2% 4%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100%  
1 47% 73% Median
2 22% 26%  
3 2% 4%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 61% 98% Last Result, Median
2 22% 37%  
3 11% 15%  
4 3% 4%  
5 0.3% 0.4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Median
1 19% 21%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 126 94% 117–133 114–136 112–137 108–141
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 115 50% 106–123 103–126 102–128 98–131
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 115 45% 106–122 103–125 101–127 98–131
Partido Socialista 108 105 4% 95–113 93–115 92–118 88–121
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 89 0% 81–97 80–100 78–102 75–105

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0.1% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.2% 99.8%  
108 0.2% 99.6%  
109 0.2% 99.4%  
110 0.4% 99.2%  
111 0.6% 98.8%  
112 0.7% 98%  
113 2% 97%  
114 0.9% 96%  
115 1.2% 95%  
116 2% 94% Majority
117 2% 91%  
118 6% 89%  
119 2% 83%  
120 3% 81%  
121 3% 78%  
122 3% 75%  
123 9% 72%  
124 6% 63% Median
125 5% 57%  
126 9% 52%  
127 8% 44%  
128 4% 36%  
129 8% 32%  
130 7% 24%  
131 3% 17%  
132 2% 14%  
133 3% 12%  
134 2% 9%  
135 1.4% 7%  
136 2% 5%  
137 1.1% 3%  
138 0.5% 2%  
139 0.5% 2% Last Result
140 0.4% 1.1%  
141 0.4% 0.7%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.7%  
98 0.5% 99.6%  
99 0.3% 99.1%  
100 0.3% 98.9%  
101 0.6% 98.6%  
102 2% 98%  
103 1.2% 96%  
104 0.9% 95%  
105 2% 94%  
106 2% 92%  
107 2% 90%  
108 2% 87%  
109 2% 85%  
110 8% 83%  
111 2% 75%  
112 2% 73%  
113 13% 70%  
114 4% 57%  
115 3% 53% Median
116 3% 50% Majority
117 2% 47%  
118 5% 44%  
119 7% 40%  
120 13% 33%  
121 6% 20%  
122 4% 14%  
123 1.3% 11%  
124 1.2% 9%  
125 2% 8%  
126 2% 6%  
127 1.3% 4% Last Result
128 0.7% 3%  
129 0.6% 2%  
130 0.3% 1.3%  
131 0.6% 1.0%  
132 0.1% 0.4%  
133 0.2% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.7%  
98 0.1% 99.6%  
99 0.3% 99.5%  
100 0.4% 99.1%  
101 1.4% 98.7%  
102 0.6% 97%  
103 3% 97%  
104 1.5% 94%  
105 2% 92%  
106 1.2% 91%  
107 0.8% 89%  
108 4% 89%  
109 5% 85%  
110 5% 80%  
111 4% 74%  
112 3% 71%  
113 7% 68%  
114 9% 61% Median
115 7% 51%  
116 8% 45% Majority
117 3% 37%  
118 5% 33%  
119 3% 28%  
120 7% 25% Last Result
121 5% 17%  
122 3% 13%  
123 1.0% 9%  
124 1.3% 8%  
125 2% 7%  
126 0.7% 5%  
127 2% 4%  
128 1.0% 2%  
129 0.3% 1.0%  
130 0.1% 0.7%  
131 0.2% 0.5%  
132 0.2% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.7%  
88 0.3% 99.6%  
89 0.3% 99.3%  
90 0.2% 99.0%  
91 0.7% 98.8%  
92 1.5% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 1.4% 95%  
95 4% 93%  
96 2% 89%  
97 2% 87%  
98 2% 85%  
99 2% 84%  
100 10% 82%  
101 3% 72%  
102 4% 68%  
103 4% 65%  
104 8% 61%  
105 6% 53% Median
106 8% 48%  
107 5% 40%  
108 5% 34% Last Result
109 3% 29%  
110 4% 26%  
111 4% 23%  
112 5% 18%  
113 7% 13%  
114 0.8% 7%  
115 2% 6%  
116 0.4% 4% Majority
117 1.0% 4%  
118 0.7% 3%  
119 1.4% 2%  
120 0.1% 0.6%  
121 0.2% 0.5%  
122 0.1% 0.3%  
123 0.2% 0.2%  
124 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 0.4% 99.3%  
77 1.2% 98.9%  
78 2% 98%  
79 1.1% 96%  
80 3% 95%  
81 3% 92%  
82 1.0% 89%  
83 4% 88%  
84 6% 83% Last Result
85 3% 77%  
86 4% 74%  
87 4% 71%  
88 12% 66%  
89 9% 54% Median
90 7% 45%  
91 3% 38%  
92 2% 35%  
93 9% 33%  
94 4% 24%  
95 2% 20%  
96 3% 17%  
97 4% 14%  
98 1.1% 9%  
99 2% 8%  
100 1.5% 6%  
101 2% 5%  
102 1.2% 3%  
103 0.4% 2%  
104 0.6% 1.3%  
105 0.4% 0.7%  
106 0.1% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations