Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal and TVI, 24–28 January 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 36.4% 36.6% 34.4–38.9% 33.8–39.5% 33.2–40.1% 32.2–41.2%
Partido Social Democrata 27.8% 32.9% 30.8–35.1% 30.2–35.8% 29.6–36.3% 28.6–37.4%
Chega 1.3% 5.4% 4.5–6.6% 4.2–6.9% 4.0–7.2% 3.6–7.9%
Bloco de Esquerda 9.5% 5.1% 4.2–6.3% 4.0–6.6% 3.8–7.0% 3.4–7.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 6.3% 5.1% 4.2–6.3% 4.0–6.6% 3.8–7.0% 3.4–7.6%
Iniciativa Liberal 1.3% 5.1% 4.2–6.3% 4.0–6.6% 3.8–7.0% 3.4–7.6%
LIVRE 1.1% 1.7% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–2.9% 0.8–3.3%
CDS–Partido Popular 4.2% 1.4% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.8–2.6% 0.6–3.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 3.3% 1.2% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.6–2.2% 0.5–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 108 103 96–112 94–112 92–115 89–118
Partido Social Democrata 79 93 86–100 84–103 83–103 80–106
Chega 1 8 6–11 4–11 4–11 4–13
Bloco de Esquerda 19 7 5–10 4–11 4–13 3–15
Coligação Democrática Unitária 12 8 6–10 5–11 5–13 5–15
Iniciativa Liberal 1 7 6–10 6–12 5–12 4–14
LIVRE 1 1 1–2 1–3 1–3 0–4
CDS–Partido Popular 5 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 4 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.5%  
90 0.6% 99.3%  
91 0.6% 98.7%  
92 0.7% 98%  
93 1.1% 97%  
94 4% 96%  
95 1.3% 93%  
96 3% 92%  
97 5% 88%  
98 14% 83%  
99 5% 69%  
100 3% 64%  
101 4% 61%  
102 5% 58%  
103 4% 53% Median
104 3% 49%  
105 3% 45%  
106 18% 42%  
107 5% 24%  
108 2% 19% Last Result
109 2% 17%  
110 2% 15%  
111 1.0% 13%  
112 7% 12%  
113 1.5% 5%  
114 0.8% 3%  
115 0.9% 3%  
116 0.5% 2% Majority
117 0.5% 1.1%  
118 0.3% 0.6%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.3%  
121 0.2% 0.2%  
122 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
80 0.5% 99.5%  
81 0.3% 99.0%  
82 1.1% 98.7%  
83 2% 98%  
84 2% 96%  
85 2% 94%  
86 3% 93%  
87 6% 89%  
88 6% 83%  
89 4% 78%  
90 7% 73%  
91 2% 67%  
92 12% 65%  
93 3% 53% Median
94 2% 50%  
95 4% 48%  
96 6% 44%  
97 16% 37%  
98 7% 21%  
99 4% 15%  
100 2% 10%  
101 2% 8%  
102 1.0% 6%  
103 3% 5%  
104 0.7% 2%  
105 0.7% 2%  
106 0.6% 1.1%  
107 0.2% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Chega

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.5% 100%  
4 6% 99.5%  
5 3% 93%  
6 1.4% 90%  
7 7% 89%  
8 41% 82% Median
9 8% 41%  
10 21% 33%  
11 10% 12%  
12 0.6% 1.2%  
13 0.3% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 2% 99.7%  
4 6% 98%  
5 4% 92%  
6 4% 88%  
7 51% 84% Median
8 2% 33%  
9 20% 31%  
10 5% 11%  
11 3% 6%  
12 1.1% 4%  
13 0.6% 3%  
14 1.4% 2%  
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 8% 99.9%  
6 8% 92%  
7 14% 84%  
8 51% 70% Median
9 7% 19%  
10 2% 11%  
11 5% 9%  
12 0.8% 4% Last Result
13 1.1% 3%  
14 1.1% 2%  
15 1.0% 1.1%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.2% 100%  
5 2% 98.7%  
6 42% 97%  
7 7% 55% Median
8 8% 47%  
9 25% 39%  
10 4% 14%  
11 3% 10%  
12 5% 7%  
13 0.7% 2%  
14 0.8% 0.9%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

LIVRE

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 65% 98.7% Last Result, Median
2 26% 34%  
3 7% 8%  
4 0.9% 1.0%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Median
1 26% 27%  
2 1.1% 1.1%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0% Last Result

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Median
1 27% 30%  
2 3% 4%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 139 118 62% 112–127 110–127 108–130 104–134
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 120 111 19% 105–120 102–120 100–123 97–126
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 127 111 19% 104–119 101–120 100–122 96–126
Partido Socialista 108 103 2% 96–112 94–112 92–115 89–118
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 84 94 0% 86–100 85–103 83–104 80–107

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.3% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.6%  
105 0.4% 99.4%  
106 0.5% 99.0%  
107 0.9% 98%  
108 0.9% 98%  
109 0.8% 97%  
110 2% 96%  
111 2% 94%  
112 4% 92%  
113 4% 88%  
114 8% 84%  
115 14% 75%  
116 4% 62% Majority
117 3% 57%  
118 4% 54% Median
119 5% 50%  
120 7% 45%  
121 11% 38%  
122 4% 27%  
123 6% 23%  
124 1.3% 16%  
125 2% 15%  
126 2% 13%  
127 7% 11%  
128 0.9% 5%  
129 0.8% 4%  
130 0.6% 3%  
131 0.9% 2%  
132 0.6% 1.4%  
133 0.2% 0.9%  
134 0.2% 0.7%  
135 0.3% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.7%  
97 0.4% 99.6%  
98 0.7% 99.2%  
99 0.4% 98%  
100 2% 98%  
101 0.8% 97%  
102 1.1% 96%  
103 2% 95%  
104 2% 93%  
105 6% 91%  
106 15% 84%  
107 6% 70%  
108 1.3% 64%  
109 4% 63%  
110 7% 59%  
111 3% 52% Median
112 4% 49%  
113 8% 44%  
114 15% 37%  
115 3% 22%  
116 3% 19% Majority
117 1.0% 16%  
118 2% 15%  
119 2% 13%  
120 6% 11% Last Result
121 1.0% 4%  
122 0.6% 3%  
123 1.1% 3%  
124 0.6% 2%  
125 0.5% 1.1%  
126 0.2% 0.6%  
127 0.1% 0.4%  
128 0.2% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.4% 99.4%  
98 0.5% 99.1%  
99 0.5% 98.6%  
100 0.8% 98%  
101 4% 97%  
102 1.3% 93%  
103 1.5% 92%  
104 2% 91%  
105 5% 88%  
106 8% 83%  
107 18% 76%  
108 2% 58%  
109 2% 56%  
110 3% 54% Median
111 5% 51%  
112 1.5% 45%  
113 17% 44%  
114 4% 27%  
115 4% 24%  
116 3% 19% Majority
117 4% 17%  
118 0.9% 13%  
119 6% 12%  
120 2% 6%  
121 0.7% 4%  
122 0.6% 3%  
123 0.5% 2%  
124 0.8% 2%  
125 0.3% 0.9%  
126 0.2% 0.6%  
127 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
128 0.2% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.5%  
90 0.6% 99.3%  
91 0.6% 98.7%  
92 0.7% 98%  
93 1.1% 97%  
94 4% 96%  
95 1.3% 93%  
96 3% 92%  
97 5% 88%  
98 14% 83%  
99 5% 69%  
100 3% 64%  
101 4% 61%  
102 5% 58%  
103 4% 53% Median
104 3% 49%  
105 3% 45%  
106 18% 42%  
107 5% 24%  
108 2% 19% Last Result
109 2% 17%  
110 2% 15%  
111 1.0% 13%  
112 7% 12%  
113 1.5% 5%  
114 0.8% 3%  
115 0.9% 3%  
116 0.5% 2% Majority
117 0.5% 1.1%  
118 0.3% 0.6%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.3%  
121 0.2% 0.2%  
122 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.1% 99.7%  
80 0.5% 99.6%  
81 0.3% 99.1%  
82 1.0% 98.8%  
83 2% 98%  
84 1.1% 96% Last Result
85 2% 95%  
86 3% 93%  
87 2% 90%  
88 9% 88%  
89 5% 79%  
90 3% 74%  
91 5% 71%  
92 8% 66%  
93 6% 58% Median
94 3% 52%  
95 4% 49%  
96 5% 44%  
97 17% 39%  
98 6% 22%  
99 5% 16%  
100 2% 11%  
101 1.2% 9%  
102 2% 8%  
103 3% 6%  
104 0.5% 3%  
105 1.0% 2%  
106 0.6% 1.1%  
107 0.2% 0.5%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations