Opinion Poll by 40dB for Prisa, 21–24 June 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.0–34.7% | 31.6–35.1% | 31.3–35.4% | 30.6–36.1% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 31.2% | 29.9–32.6% | 29.5–32.9% | 29.2–33.3% | 28.6–33.9% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 10.4% | 9.6–11.3% | 9.3–11.6% | 9.1–11.8% | 8.7–12.3% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.9–5.0% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.6–5.4% | 3.3–5.7% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.2–4.3% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.7–4.9% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.9–2.7% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.5–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 22 | 21–23 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–24 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 29% | 96% | |
| 24 | 50% | 67% | Median |
| 25 | 15% | 16% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 21 | 15% | 99.1% | |
| 22 | 47% | 85% | Median |
| 23 | 32% | 38% | |
| 24 | 6% | 6% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 10% | 100% | |
| 7 | 70% | 90% | Median |
| 8 | 20% | 20% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 23% | 100% | |
| 3 | 76% | 77% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 84% | 99.4% | Median |
| 3 | 15% | 15% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 22% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 78% | Median |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 10% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–23 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–24 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 29% | 96% | |
| 24 | 50% | 67% | Median |
| 25 | 15% | 16% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 21 | 15% | 99.1% | |
| 22 | 47% | 85% | Median |
| 23 | 32% | 38% | |
| 24 | 6% | 6% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 10% | 100% | |
| 7 | 70% | 90% | Median |
| 8 | 20% | 20% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: 40dB
- Commissioner(s): Prisa
- Fieldwork period: 21–24 June 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.88%