Opinion Poll by Simple Lógica for elDiario.es, 1–10 July 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 33.5% | 31.2–36.0% | 30.5–36.7% | 30.0–37.3% | 28.9–38.5% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 31.7% | 29.4–34.1% | 28.7–34.8% | 28.2–35.4% | 27.1–36.6% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 10.5% | 9.1–12.2% | 8.7–12.7% | 8.4–13.1% | 7.7–14.0% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.3–6.7% | 4.1–7.0% | 3.8–7.4% | 3.4–8.0% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.3–4.7% | 2.2–5.0% | 1.8–5.6% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.5% | 2.0–4.8% | 1.7–5.4% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–4.0% | 1.7–4.2% | 1.4–4.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 22 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 19–25 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–3 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 7% | 98.7% | |
| 22 | 18% | 92% | |
| 23 | 29% | 74% | Median |
| 24 | 26% | 45% | |
| 25 | 14% | 19% | |
| 26 | 4% | 5% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 9% | 98% | |
| 21 | 24% | 88% | |
| 22 | 31% | 65% | Median |
| 23 | 23% | 34% | |
| 24 | 9% | 11% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 25% | 97% | |
| 7 | 45% | 73% | Median |
| 8 | 23% | 28% | |
| 9 | 4% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 53% | 94% | Median |
| 4 | 37% | 41% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 18% | 100% | |
| 2 | 71% | 82% | Median |
| 3 | 11% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 26% | 100% | |
| 2 | 65% | 74% | Median |
| 3 | 9% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 53% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 44% | 47% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 19–25 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 7% | 98.7% | |
| 22 | 18% | 92% | |
| 23 | 29% | 74% | Median |
| 24 | 26% | 45% | |
| 25 | 14% | 19% | |
| 26 | 4% | 5% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 9% | 98% | |
| 21 | 24% | 88% | |
| 22 | 31% | 65% | Median |
| 23 | 23% | 34% | |
| 24 | 9% | 11% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 25% | 97% | |
| 7 | 45% | 73% | Median |
| 8 | 23% | 28% | |
| 9 | 4% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Simple Lógica
- Commissioner(s): elDiario.es
- Fieldwork period: 1–10 July 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 638
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.65%