Opinion Poll by Simple Lógica for elDiario.es, 1–9 August 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 33.5% | 31.2–35.9% | 30.5–36.6% | 29.9–37.2% | 28.9–38.4% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 30.5% | 28.3–32.9% | 27.6–33.6% | 27.1–34.2% | 26.0–35.4% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 10.4% | 9.0–12.1% | 8.6–12.6% | 8.3–13.0% | 7.7–13.9% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.8% | 3.9–6.1% | 3.6–6.5% | 3.4–6.8% | 3.0–7.4% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.7–5.2% | 2.5–5.5% | 2.2–6.1% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.6% | 1.6–5.1% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.6% | 1.6–5.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 22 | 16% | 94% | |
| 23 | 28% | 78% | |
| 24 | 27% | 50% | Median |
| 25 | 16% | 23% | |
| 26 | 6% | 7% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 20 | 16% | 94% | |
| 21 | 31% | 78% | Median |
| 22 | 25% | 46% | |
| 23 | 17% | 22% | |
| 24 | 4% | 5% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 23% | 97% | |
| 7 | 44% | 75% | Median |
| 8 | 25% | 30% | |
| 9 | 5% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 19% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 59% | 81% | Median |
| 4 | 21% | 22% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 61% | 94% | Median |
| 3 | 31% | 33% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 23% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 72% | 77% | Median |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 29% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 65% | 71% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 22 | 16% | 94% | |
| 23 | 28% | 78% | |
| 24 | 27% | 50% | Median |
| 25 | 16% | 23% | |
| 26 | 6% | 7% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 20 | 16% | 94% | |
| 21 | 31% | 78% | Median |
| 22 | 25% | 46% | |
| 23 | 17% | 22% | |
| 24 | 4% | 5% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 23% | 97% | |
| 7 | 44% | 75% | Median |
| 8 | 25% | 30% | |
| 9 | 5% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Simple Lógica
- Commissioner(s): elDiario.es
- Fieldwork period: 1–9 August 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 642
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.59%